GaWx

No, it is one winter after each of these since it is the winter following a high ACE season.

Good point. Regarding the bolded I don't know if this is related to a classic UHI effect. The hotter sunny summer afternoons are possibly due to surrounding gravel/concrete/building per Brad P. and/or the construction of a new runway per marsman's posts. Would these be classic UHI? I also wonder if the recent flash drought was affecting RDU more than FAY and other areas since drought, alone, typically results in hotter summer afternoons due to drier ground but not warmer lows.

That’s why I said this: *Caution advised due to small sample size as there’s possibility this was due to randomness*

La Niña after ACE 200+: 5 winters E US -1893-4: Dec and Jan NN; Feb BN NE, NN SE -1933-4: Dec BN NE, AN SE; Jan NN; Feb BN -1995-6: Dec, Jan, Feb BN -2005-6: Dec BN; Jan AN; Feb NN NE, BN SE -2017-8: Dec BN NE, NN SE; Jan BN; Feb AN By region: 1) NE: Dec BN 4 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 0 of 5 Jan BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Feb BN 3 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 1 of 5 2) SE: Dec BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Jan BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Feb BN 3 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Summary of results for these 5 winters NE: BN strongly prevailed in Dec and moderately prevailed in Feb; Jan all over map SE: BN moderately prevailed in Feb; DJ all over map *Caution advised due to small sample size as there’s possibility this was due to randomness. This is not at all a forecast for 2024-5 or any other Nina winter following 200+ ACE.*

2005 and 2020 both had 21 NS after July. 2024 is at 3 now. Even IF July had no more storms, having 21 more would make 24. Of course there could easily be one or more NS this month as 3 weeks is a near eternity. To illustrate better, here was a TWO from June 24th, which suggested no more NS in June vs the two that actually occurred: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch The first TWO even mentioning the AEW that lead to Beryl wasn’t til the one from 8 PM on June 25th and even that was only at 20% over the subsequent 7 days: A tropical wave centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend and into early next week while it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

I didn’t bring this up on my own. I earlier saw others (here and elsewhere) mentioning this, including a pro-met. This tweet from Brad Panovich says there’s a warm bias though much more during daytime than night: https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1809595420802261228?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet The problem appears to not be with the sensor for that would mean just as much too hot at night, too, along with when it is cloudy, windy, etc. Rather, it appears per Brad to be due to the surroundings: “This is not an ideal siting situation for KRDU. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's way too much gravel and concrete and a building too close to the ASOS. Compare KRDU versus KCLT ASOS, which is surrounded by vegetation and no buildings” From here: https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1809626846633320508?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809626846633320508|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url= So, it appears Brad has made a case that should perhaps be considered. I don’t think this is intentional (conspiracy). Why would it be? But that doesn’t mean there isn’t an issue to consider that perhaps needs to be resolved. Being in GA, I would appreciate any objective fact based evidence one way or the other from the RDU area crowd. TIA!

CSU's updated analog seasons: 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020 Year/ASO ONI (using Eric Webb 1st 3 and NOAA RONI for 1995+): -1886/-0.8: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H, all in Gulf (one landfall barely missed as hit far NE MX that still lead to H winds S TX); 3 were in June! -1926/0.0: 3 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing S FL that still lead to H winds S FL); bad year FL/Gulf; 4th highest ACE -1933/-1.1: 4 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC/VA); bad year SE FL, S TX, NC/VA; highest ACE -1995/-0.7: 2 CONUS landfalling storms as H in FL; 5th highest ACE -2005/0.0: 5 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC); bad year Gulf/SFL; 2nd highest ACE -2010/-1.6: 0 CONUS landfalling storms as H -2020/-1.2: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H; bad year W/C Gulf So, the avg # of landfalling storms on the CONUS as a H for these 7 years was a very ominous 4. Clearly, the best hope for CONUS when considering these analogs for a tame rest of season is for something similar to 2010 with its 0 H landfalls and only 2 TS hits, one minimal. However, note that ASO RONI was way down at -1.6, the lowest ASO ONI/RONI on record. Very low ASO (mod to strong Nina) on avg have not been as bad for CONUS H hits as weaker Ninas. With the most likely ASO RONI having risen to weak to low end moderate Nina territory, it is unlikely as of now that Nina will be that strong. Also, Beryl hitting TX probably isn't a good sign. Thus, the case for 2010-like tracks for the rest of 2024 is kind of weak as of now though I'll still hope.

RDU at 97 was hottest major station in the state Monday by 2F:MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR NC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC 815 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024 .BR RDU 0708 ES DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ : : HIGH PAST 18 HOURS / LOW PAST 24 HOURS /PCPN LAST 24 HOURS : : MAX MIN 24-HR :ID LOCATION TEMP TEMP PCPN : AVL :ASHEVILLE : 88 / 70 / 0.01 BUY :BURLINGTON : 91 / 72 / T CLT :CHARLOTTE : 92 / 75 / 0.51 ECG :ELIZABETH CITY : 90 / 74 / 0.00 EWN :NEW BERN : 91 / 74 / 0.99 FAY :FAYETTEVILLE : 94 / 75 / 0.00 GSO :GREENSBORO : 91 / 73 / T HSE :CAPE HATTERAS : 89 / 78 / 0.00 ILM :WILMINGTON : 91 / 76 / 0.07 INT :WINSTON-SALEM : 92 / 75 / T LBT :LUMBERTON : 95 / 75 / 0.00 MEB :LAURINBURG-MAXTON : 91 / 75 / 0.00 MRH :BEAUFORT : 88 / 81 / 0.00 RDU :RALEIGH-DURHAM : 97 / 75 / 0.00 RWI :ROCKY MT-WILSON : 95 / 74 / 0.00

It isn’t included in these but the ICON was best of the more respected globals with the W GOM landfall in C TX. This goes back to the 12Z 6/30 run into Galveston! It then had runs up into LA or near the TX/LA border as late as the 6Z on 7/3, which weren’t good. However, starting on 12Z 7/3 (when ICON hit C TX while GFS, Euro, CMC, and UKMET were into NE MX) onward ICON was always between Galveston and Corpus. So, major kudos! CMC wasn’t consistently TX til 0Z of 7/6. UKMET wasn’t til 12Z of 7/5. Euro/GFS wasn’t til 0Z of 7/5. (ICON also did well with Ian for FL and SC landfalls (2nd best to UKMET)). JMA gets a well deserved honorable mention as it was similar to the ICON with its 12Z 6/30 run and had several more runs (12Z runs on 6/2, 3, 4) into Galveston followed by 6/5-6 at CC. Actual landfall wasn’t up at upper TX coast but still the 6/30 and 7/2-4 JMA runs into Galveston were much closer to actual landfall than GFS/Euro/UKMET then. Only the ICON was overall about as close. So, my ratings of globals for W GOM portion of track: Best: ICON and JMA Next best but not close: GFS/Euro Further back: UKMET Worst: CMC

I remember many of us salivating about this and other H5 maps for 23-4. (By the way, I’m hoping we’ll see maps like this posted in the 25-6 thread.) I mean it had El Niño, Aleutian low, strong +PNA, -NAO, and -AO. It had the pentafecta of wx indices for great E US winter potential! I was even thinking I’d have a decent chance for a wintry precip event way down here, which would have been the 1st in 6 years. Well, El Niño was correct and we had a modest +PNA. But the Aleutian low and -NAO were miserable fails. And the AO averaged neutral, which was a moderate fail. The SE still averaged only slightly warmer than normal. So, I can’t complain too much. This Euro 24-5 map has La Niña, Aleutian high, -PNA, +NAO, and +AO. Exact opposites. All the things that most E US cold/snowy winter lovers don’t want.

Forecasted Jan 2025 H5 height anomalies from July Euro: most of US 2.4-3.5 dm above climo

Here’s something NOT different as of 3PM: RDU’s 94 is the warmest in the entire state. What a shocker:NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 PM EDT MON JUL 08 2024 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY. NCZ001-053-055-056-065-067-082000- WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS ASHEVILLE MOSUNNY 87 71 58 S9 30.11F JEFFERSON PTSUNNY 79 68 69 CALM 30.19F MORGANTON MOSUNNY 89 74 60 CALM 30.08F HX 97 HICKORY NOT AVBL WILKESBORO MOSUNNY 88 68 51 CALM 30.11F RUTHERFORDTON PTSUNNY 86 72 62 CALM 30.08F MOUNT AIRY NOT AVBL BOONE MOSUNNY 82 70 67 SE7 30.01F NCZ021-022-025-041-071-084-088-082000- CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CHARLOTTE PTSUNNY 87 71 58 VRB3 30.04F GREENSBORO PTSUNNY 89 73 59 VRB3 30.04F HX 97 WINSTON-SALEM MOSUNNY 90 72 55 VRB3 30.06F HX 97 RALEIGH-DURHAM PTSUNNY 94 N/A N/A NW3 30.04F FORT LIBERTY MOSUNNY 93 72 49 E7 30.00F HX 100 FAYETTEVILLE MOSUNNY 92 72 51 SE3 30.01F HX 99 BURLINGTON MOSUNNY 88 72 58 CALM 30.03F ROXBORO MOSUNNY 86 72 62 SW6 30.06F HENDERSON NOT AVBL LOUISBURG MOSUNNY 90 73 58 S6 30.05F HX 98 LAURINBURG CLOUDY 85 72 65 S12 30.03F NCZ011-015-027-028-043-044-047-080-103-082000- NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS ROCKY MT-WILSO MOSUNNY 93 65 39 SW8 30.02F HX 95 GREENVILLE PTSUNNY 91 73 55 SW5 30.01F HX 100 ELIZABETH CITY PTSUNNY 88 75 65 E7 30.02F HX 97 MANTEO MOSUNNY 89 73 60 N9 30.04F HX 97 CAPE HATTERAS MOSUNNY 88 79 74 SW7 30.04F HX 103 NCZ078-087-090-091-093-098-101-082000- SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS LUMBERTON MOSUNNY 93 72 50 W15 30.01F HX 101 GOLDSBORO PTSUNNY 92 69 46 W3 29.99F HX 97 KINSTON MOSUNNY 90 75 62 SW7 30.03F HX 100 KENANSVILLE PTSUNNY 88 77 70 CALM 30.03F HX 100 NEW BERN PTSUNNY 85 76 74 N5 30.04F CHERRY POINT PTSUNNY 88 75 65 SW10G20 30.04F HX 97 BEAUFORT MOSUNNY 88 76 67 SW14 30.04F HX 99 JACKSONVILLE PTSUNNY 90 75 61 SW9 30.02F HX 100 WILMINGTON PTSUNNY 87 76 69 CALM 30.03F HX 97

My area is about to get blasted it appears. Very heavy rains incoming from thunderstorms lined up near the coast. We also had some rain earlier this afternoon. Edit: I got ~~1.25”

New BoM forecast for ASO ONI: a bit cooler New run: -0.2 Old run: 0.0

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...USE CAUTION AFTER THE STORM AS DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN INCLUDING DOWNED POWERLINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 95.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES A National Ocean Service station near the entrance to Galveston Bay (GNJT2) recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h), and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Huntsville Municipal Airport (KUTS) in Texas measured a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and Beaumont/Port Arthur Regional Airport (KBPT) recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The cooling of the weeklies has been unexpectedly mainly nonexistent since late May! The June -5 SOI had a say in that. There has been a lingering shallow warm layer per ocean depth maps shown by @Stormchaserchuck1and @so_whats_happening(down to 75-100 meters) that has been stubborn due to overall warmth. I earlier thought RONI had a good shot at a dip to moderate to strong La Nina by autumn but as of now it is looking like moderate at the strongest with weak increasing in probability.

Relentless in Houston: Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Corrected Header ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport (KIAH) recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

These were 10AM CDT conditions in Houston with it having just been downgraded to a TS: HOUSTON BUSH HVY RAIN 74 73 97 SE55G82 29.25F VSB 1/4 TC 23 HOUSTON HOBBY LGT RAIN N/A N/A N/A S48G75 29.37R Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Houston Hobby Airport recently reported a wind gust of 84 mph (135 km/h), and Bush Intercontinental Airport recently reported a wind gust of 83 mph (134 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches) based on surface observations. ——————————- Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a fairly well-defined eye present. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, as a compromise of Doppler wind velocities and surface observations. While Beryl is no longer a hurricane, there are still many life-threatening hazards associated with the storm, and these are detailed in the Key Messages below.

Just out from NHC (9AM CDT): Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AREA... ...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) recently reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Morgans Point recently measured a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph (124 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 95.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake

From NHC at 8AM CDT: A mesonet station (FRPT2) in Freeport recently reported a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). A National Ocean Service (NOS) station (GNJT2) at the entrance to Galveston Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a gust of 82 mph (131 km/h). A USGS gauge at Galveston Railroad Bridge recently reported an inundation of 3.6 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 95.8W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

A strengthening 1 is often worse than a weakening 2.

That’s a long lag (10-15 days)!

Also, per that chart, it was technically still in 2/3 but with very low amp during the storm.

8AM CDT: couple of cities HOUSTON HOBBY LGT RAIN 79 77 94 SE49G76 29.33 BAY CITY CLOUDY 73 73 98 W46G60 29.36R Just 2 hours earlier the pressure was 28.94 in Bay City and 29.49 in Houston Hobby (HH). Note the 77 dewpoint at HH allowing for flooding rainfall. Winds gusted to 76 there at 7:53 AM CDT!

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...BERYL NEARING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...200 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Beryl is nearing the middle Texas coast and is expected to make landfall within the next few hours. Conditions are deteriorating with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force wind gust have already been reported along the coast. A WeatherFlow station (XMBG) located at Matagorda Bay recently reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph (120 km/h). Another position update will be provided at 300 AM CDT (0800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 95.9W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly