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Live stream from Sargent Beach:

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 ...BERYL STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 95.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast during the next several hours. Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before the center reaches the Texas coast. Significant weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda, Texas, recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

Apparently this was one of the reasons for upgrade to hurricane: These radar echoes were the reasoning for the upgrade of #Beryl. Winds up to 88 mph are being measured at about 10,000 feet aloft. That translates into surface winds of 75 mph, supporting a hurricane. https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1810163899653648530 Also, the decision may have been influenced by this buoy report: NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches). In addition, the latest dropsonde posted above showed pressure dropped to 985 mb.

Beryl is now a hurricane. 11:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 Location: 27.7°N 95.7°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 985 mb Max sustained: 75 mph

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 513 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TX AND INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALVIN, ANAHUAC, ANGLETON, BAY CITY, CLEVELAND, CLUTE, CONROE, DAYTON, DICKINSON, FIRST COLONY, FREEPORT, FRIENDSWOOD, GALVESTON, HOUSTON, LAKE JACKSON, LEAGUE CITY, LIBERTY, MISSION BEND, MISSOURI CITY, MONT BELVIEU, OLD RIVER-WINFREE, PALACIOS, PEARLAND, PECAN GROVE, ROSENBERG, STOWELL, SUGAR LAND, TEXAS CITY, THE WOODLANDS, AND WINNIE.

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center, with new convective elements emerging around the northern and southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However, the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb. The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight. The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland. The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt, but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 38...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Correct break point to Port Bolivar in Tropical Storm Warning ...BERYL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 95.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch from San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. The Hurricane Warning south of Mesquite Bay has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Baffin Bay has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Mesquite Bay to Port Aransas.

Was the last dropsonde at 988? If so, do you know when that was?

Live stream from Sargent, TX (Josh M. is also there):

That’s down ~2 mb from an extrap pass 1.5 hours earlier. If this slow rate of fall were to persist through the projected time of landfall, that would still mean a further drop of 10 mb well down into the 970s. But with the broad center, I’m thinking it may need to get below 970 mb to have a shot at cat 2.

LAS VEGAS FAIR 118 17 3 NW7G20 29.75F 6HR MIN TEMP: 107; 6HR MAX TEMP: 120 So, Las Vegas made it all of the way to 120! That beats their old all-time record high by 3! https://kamala.cod.edu/nv/latest.asus45.REV.KREV.html

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 95.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning south of Port Aransas has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning south of Port Aransas, including Corpus Christi Bay, has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port Mansfield has been discontinued.

Down to 985.5 mb (extrapolated) at 5:55PM CDT at 27.0N, 95.7W per recon but dropsondes 988 mb.

I’m waiting for confirmation, but it appears that Las Vegas has set a new all-time record high today of at least 118 F! This would beat 117, which had been hit five times. Records go back to 1937. Models are calling for more very hot days much of the upcoming work-week. With a RH of a mere 3%/dewpoint of 16, the LV heat index is “only” ~106.

With a RH of a mere 3%/dewpoint of 16, the LV heat index is only ~106. Here in SE GA, whereas the hottest it has been so far this summer has been “only” in the upper 90s, the highest HI has been ~110!

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to gradual organize with more banding features near the center, expanding outflow and strong bursts of convection rotating around the eyewall. However, dry air is still present within the inner core, keeping the intensification slow at this time, with only a broken banded eyewall structure. While the central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has fallen to 988 mb, there hasn't been much change in the winds reported, so the intensity remains 55 kt. The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the storm. All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and higher winds. However, some less predictable factors could prevent a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall timing. Given that the regional hurricane models still show significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for near rapid intensification through landfall. Beryl has turned north-northwest at about 10 kt. The storm should turn northward overnight before making landfall along the middle Texas coast early on Monday before dawn. The new forecast is very close to the previous one through landfall. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance turns the system northeastward late tomorrow and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The long-term track is a bit faster and east of the last one, consistent with a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 26.8N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 28.3N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0600Z 32.6N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1800Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/0600Z 37.2N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 39.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...BERYL FORECAST TO BRING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS TO TEXAS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 95.5W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Recon just placed the center around 26.2N, 95.4W but didn’t get a pressure reading. Thus, we’ll have to wait to see what the dropsonde shows. ——————- Edit: From NHC: ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 95.3W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

Levi Cowan’s latest (7 min video), which was recorded within the last hour: https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1809982172788306162?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62 kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt. Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall. Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into Missouri. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake *Edit: note the forecasted 85 mph as of 7AM CDT is when it has already been inland a few hours thus implying higher forecasted landfalling max winds.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 ...BERYL BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 95.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has issued for the coast of Texas from High Island to Sabine Pass. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, Texas. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for the Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

The 6Z HWRF has 969 mb landfall ~3AM CDT at Matagorda Bay. Due to the broad center, the highest winds (~100 mph from SE) are located a pretty significant distance (~25 miles) NE of the center between the towns of Matagorda and Sargent. Highest winds to the left of the center are ~75 mph from the NW.

Unfortunately but not surprisingly, DMAX appears to have been a factor leading to strengthening with increased convection collocated with the center. Recon confirms an SLP drop to ~990 mb, a rather significant drop overnight. We’ll see whether or not this increased convection holds as we go toward DMIN late today. With dry air/shear decreasing further and SSTs increasing, I expect it will. With ~18 more hours over water projected til the ~3AM landfall, SSTs increasing to a whopping ~88 F, and another DMAX then being approached, a strengthening cat 2 at landfall is quite possible with an outside chance for just reaching cat 3.

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Beryl has not changed much over the past few hours. Satellite images still show that the storm has a compact central dense overcast pattern, and radar and dropsonde data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the circulation remains tilted to the northwest with height. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a slight drop in minimum pressure to 993 mb, but the flight-level wind data suggest that the initial intensity is still around 50 kt. The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. A turn to the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected as the system moves toward a trough over the south-central U.S., taking the core of Beryl to the middle Texas coast early Monday morning. The shifts in the models have been decreasing, and the new NHC track forecast is just a touch to the right of the previous one through landfall. After landfall, a faster motion to the north and northeast is predicted. Beryl is currently in an environment of about 10 to 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear and surrounded by dry air, especially on the south side of the circulation. However, the storm is expected to move into an area of decreasing wind shear, and the global models show the moisture increasing near the core. In fact, the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing to very low levels (less than 5 kt) just prior to Beryl reaching the coast. These conditions combined with a diffluent upper-level wind pattern should support notable strengthening just prior to landfall. In fact, the hurricane regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall. Based on the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 24.7N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 25.7N 95.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 27.1N 96.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 28.8N 96.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 30.7N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 32.6N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 34.5N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 37.8N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 41.3N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 ...BERYL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 94.0W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES