GaWx

The ship sailed a few weeks ago on upper 20s+ NS predictions. But I feel that my 21 NS still has a shot though that’s likely near the high end of reasonable possibilities. I also think my 10H/5MH is very much still alive. Also, Aug 8th analogs suggested near 200 ACE.

0Z Euro: unlike 12Z which went 150 miles E of Bermuda, this run swerves W and misses Bermuda W by 175 miles followed by a LF on E Nova Scotia and SW Newfoundland!

Here are the 5 most skewed I could find for the full season of the active seasons (140+ ACE): 2021’s full season 146 ACE: ~59% of that (~86) from just 2 of the 21 storms! 2003’s full season 176 ACE: ~60% of that (~105) from just 2 of the 16 storms! 1966’s full season 145 ACE: ~61% of that (~88) from just 2 of the 15 storms 1899’s full season 151 ACE: ~70% of that (106) from just 2 of the 10 storms 1980’s full season 149 ACE: ~58% of that (~87) from just 2 of the 11 storms 2016’s full season 141 ACE: ~64% of that (~90) from just 3 of the 15 storms Edit: If Ernesto ends up with 24, that would mean 59 from just 2. But if 2024 ends up with ~200 ACE, the ACE from those two would be only ~30% of the total.

Good question. I have no idea. Here’s the level of early season skew vs that for the other very active early seasons: 2024 projected ACE thru 8/20: very skewed with 59 of 65 (91%) of ACE from 2 of 5 storms 2005: Dennis ~15; Emily ~29; so, 44 ACE between those 2 out of 85 ACE from first 9 storms; that’s not that skewed early 1933: not skewed early 1899: 60 of 69 ACE (87%) from 1 of 3; only of these seasons with a comparable early season skew to 2024 1886: not skewed early 1893: not skewed early So, 1899 is the only other highly skewed early on of the early very active seasons. But we don’t know how 2024 will end up skew-wise. I’m expecting still ~135 more ACE after Ernesto. If that’s well spread out, the season as a whole wouldn’t end up that skewed. By the way, 1899 for the season as a whole ended up highly skewed with ~106 (70%) of its entire season’s ACE of 151 from just 2 storms out of 10 total!

One more thing: having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9. If we get 24 ACE during just 8/13-20, that would be a whopping 4 times the very active era’s 1991-2020 normal of only a mere 6 during that period!

By the way, having 65 ACE as of 8/20 would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of only 18.9: If we get 24 ACE during 8/13-20, that would be vs a 1991-2020 avg of a mere 6! So, that would be 4 times the average of a very active era.

Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W: 2024 could rank as high as 5th if total ACE gets to 65 1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%) 2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%) 3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%) 4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%) 5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%) 1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W

Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W: 2024 could rank as high as 5th if total ACE gets to 65 1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%) 2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%) 3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%) 4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%) 5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%) 1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W

Aug 8th ACE back to 1851 was from this: Aug 20th ACE back to 1851 came from me by projecting ahead from the Aug 8th ACE table. I was so curious that it was well worth the several hours of time to do it. I estimated ACE for Aug 9-20 for all years by looking at TS+ activity during that period. Though time consuming, it wasn’t all that hard to do once you know the ACE formula. It was actually fun!

I’m not at all trying to rush you. But since ACE is an important component from your perspective, I thought you might find this interesting (I just posted this in the main tropical thread): Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th: As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42). If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67). One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.

Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th: As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42). If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67). One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.

12Z UKMET: TCG sooner; good bit E of 0Z run and goes over Bermuda NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.5N 63.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.08.2024 36 18.0N 64.7W 1009 30 1200UTC 14.08.2024 48 19.6N 66.8W 1008 37 0000UTC 15.08.2024 60 21.1N 68.2W 1006 45 1200UTC 15.08.2024 72 24.2N 68.6W 1003 49 0000UTC 16.08.2024 84 25.5N 68.2W 1001 45 1200UTC 16.08.2024 96 26.9N 67.2W 998 52 0000UTC 17.08.2024 108 27.5N 65.9W 997 50 1200UTC 17.08.2024 120 28.9N 65.6W 996 48 0000UTC 18.08.2024 132 29.7N 65.0W 993 45 1200UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.6N 65.8W 992 38 0000UTC 19.08.2024 156 32.0N 65.2W 992 43 1200UTC 19.08.2024 168 34.7N 64.5W 991 48 ——————— 12Z CMC just W of Bermuda and misses Canada. 12Z ICON well W of Bermuda like 0Z.

I see +5+ as being most likely down here in the SE US as per Niña/strong -PDO climo due to a stronger than average SE ridge. The very warm WPAC, itself, also supports a stronger than avg SE ridge. Being as “cool” as the +2 to +4 range would be more likely in the NE US. I’m talking anomalies vs 1991-2020 base.

I just posted this on the main Atlantic Tropical thread fwiw: I still feel good about my 21/10/5 contest prediction. My latest analog based ACE prediction due to having the 5th highest ACE on record back to 1851 as of 8/8 is for another ~160 (total of ~200) with ~75% of that (another ~120) ACE W of 60W rest of the year. Ernesto looks to tack on significant W of 60W ACE. Along with that, I’m thinking another 3-4 CONUS H landfalls, bringing it up to 5-6 for the full season (record high is 6). Look out for the highest SOI since late 2022 near the weekend/early next week. A solidly +SOI tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator of activity/CONUS landfalls. So, if the very active early season along with continued near record warm SSTs isn’t enough, the upcoming strong +SOI may be a further harbinger of things to come late Aug-Sep. I’d love nothing more than my predictions ending up too high. So, I’m not wishcasting.

I still feel good about my 21/10/5 contest prediction. My latest analog based ACE prediction due to having the 5th highest ACE on record back to 1851 as of 8/8 is for another ~160 (total of ~200) with ~75% of that (another ~120) ACE W of 60W rest of the year. Ernesto looks to tack on significant W of 60W ACE. Along with that, I’m thinking another 3-4 CONUS H landfalls, bringing it up to 5-6 for the full season (record high is 6). Look out for the highest SOI since late 2022 near the weekend/early next week. A solidly +SOI tends to be somewhat of a leading indicator of activity/CONUS landfalls. So, if the very active early season along with continued near record warm SSTs isn’t enough, the upcoming strong +SOI may be a further harbinger of things to come late Aug-Sep. I’d love nothing more than my predictions ending up too high. So, I’m not wishcasting.

0Z Euro: weak at PR but much stronger with cat 2 H with center just E of Bermuda followed by a miss of Canada

0Z UKMET: similar to 12Z run going NNE to the W of Bermuda NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.7N 71.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.08.2024 84 22.7N 71.1W 1006 43 0000UTC 16.08.2024 96 24.1N 71.2W 1004 47 1200UTC 16.08.2024 108 26.1N 70.1W 1000 48 0000UTC 17.08.2024 120 27.7N 69.8W 998 43 1200UTC 17.08.2024 132 28.8N 69.9W 997 50 0000UTC 18.08.2024 144 30.2N 70.1W 995 52 1200UTC 18.08.2024 156 32.8N 69.3W 993 50 0000UTC 19.08.2024 168 36.4N 68.2W 982 63

0Z ICON way west!

Agreed. My initial best guess for where negative temperature anomalies MIGHT be this winter in our continent would be on or near where the following canonical La Niña based map has them. Of course it likely won’t work out all that similarly due to unpredictability, differing other factors/indices, every winter is different, etc:

Just to clarify, I’m not saying that a hurricane can’t be devastating and deadly to Bermuda. Of course it can. But I’m saying that I think that it is about the, if not THE, safest island country to be stuck on for any particular strength if one is unfortunately stuck. And much safer than where I live for sure! I mean I’d be leaving in many cases if a H is coming here.

Go to PGA Tour thread if interested in Fedex Playoffs contest. See rules there. Deadline: 6AM Thu 8/15

One option is that you can go here and compare the 4 regions for each winter to get a general idea. It wouldn’t take that long: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

I think I figured out why my garage flooded from the very heavy Debby rains: part of my garage door bottom seal had become brittle and thus let in water! It wasn’t torn or out of place. Nothing obvious. Can you believe that something so subtle as that can lead to a partially flooded garage? Something I never in my life ever even thought about. You learn something new every day.

Hopefully they don’t get hit! But if there’s going to be an island country hit and I’m stuck there, I’d want it to be Bermuda (which is actually made up of multiple islands). That’s because their building requirements are extremely strict. Also, most of the these islands are quite elevated just inland well above any potential storm surge. So, one just has to evacuate inland away from the beaches and other low spots and get inside. The island with the airport is quite vulnerable to surge and is one exception. One more thing that helps is that Bermuda has natural protection because much of it is surrounded by reefs. I’ve been there before (not during a storm). I’d actually feel much safer there than here. Here I’d have to evacuate in most cases from a direct hit.

My first pop up since Debby is about to start. Last pop-up was 8 days ago (8/3). There was one very close CTG lightning strike. The rain is very light now after being heavy for awhile. Thankfully, it didn’t last too long. It looks like I got at least 0.5”+, just what the doctor didn’t order. I’ll know more later about the amount. Edit: Ended up 0.65”