GaWx

Do you think that the current very active sun could be one of the main factors (especially when considering lag) keeping the recent Atlantic tropics quiet? Aug of 2024 had a 216, the highest mean sunspots in Aug since 1991. That means that this Aug had the highest mean for Aug of the current active Atlantic tropics era so far. https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt Per met. Joe D’Aleo: “We have mentioned the strong solar spike which research has shown can suppress hurricane activity.” “One negative may be the big spike in solar in cycle 25. Most cycles have had a dual max and recent ones had the second one higher. This warms the upper atmosphere and hampers development.”

Icon (12Z) has it again while CMC, GFS, and UKMET again don’t.

My educated guess is no because in a good portion of the central and E US, especially the Midwest, August of 2024 wasn’t as hot as Aug of 2021. In much of the C/E US, June was the hottest month anomaly-wise and in some cases even outright. Much of the Midwest as well as some of the Plains and mid-south had only near to only slightly warmer than the 1991-2020 normal for July-August, combined.

Happy met. autumn! Here’s to a relatively comfortable September as we start a new season.

I’m suspecting that one of the factors leading to the current quiet is the record warm E Atlantic from 30 to 45N. Any opinions about this?

Total here for August: 15.33”, with 10.9” from Debby 8/5-7 (which flooded parts of my garage). A thunderstorm on 8/20 caused some more water to flow into my garage but it wasn’t nearly as bad and I was on top of it. It has been at least several years since I had 15.33” in any month. The 15.33” combined with 12.25” in July gives me a two month total of a whopping 27.58”, which is just over double the normal! My JJA was ~31”. That is just under the 32.23” I got in the also very wet JJA of 2022. I got 20.9” just for the period 7/19-8/7! There’s been only traces since after the Aug 20th thunderstorm allowing the water table to drop back down some.

If this disturbance in the NW GOM were to become a TC eventually, the ICON will deserve major kudos. A whole bunch of runs in a row, including the 0Z, have shown this. I don’t recall any other global having a TC from this.

Why are you calling it schtick? He’s been actively posting in these ENSO threads only since last winter if I’m not mistaken. Correct me if I’m wrong. So, if true this is only the 2nd winter he’s been actively posting in these general winter threads. Last winter he did well with warmth and that’s the important thing, whether he was influenced by bias or not. Even if he was he backed up his warm forecast very well with history/analog data/reasoning/tweets from well respected pro Mets like Roundy, etc., over and over and over. This winter remains to be seen but I agree with AN unlike last year. He’s incorporating some changed factors from last winter like ENSO/QBO. I thought last winter would be NN to only slightly AN NE and was wrong unlike snowman. This winter I’m closer to him with AN even though the NE could easily not be as AN. Last winter was 40.6 at NYC, or ~4.5 AN (warmest since 2015-6). So, odds are 2024-5 won’t be nearly that warm. The best test for him will be when the NE gets backs to a cold DJF and if he successfully predicts cold for that one. That could very well be 2025-6 for all anyone knows. Did you make a fcast for last winter? What’s your forecast for this winter?

-So, that’s for Nov-Mar as opposed to just DJF. Thus, we still don’t know what he has for DJF itself. If he has the warmest for N and M, DJF could be NN. -But if we assume DJF would be similar, this implies ~+2F. That would mean ~38 vs 36 1991-2020 avg. -A 38 DJF would still be significantly colder than the last 2, which were 40-40.5.

I didn’t say don’t look at them. You’re changing my words and posting a fake quote. I’m prefacing my Euro post by saying don’t hang onto it as in don’t bet on it. I, just like others, post what long range ops show for the record. And I said fwiw.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

For the 40% AEW, I see some scary 12Z EPS members slamming FL from the Gulf. But others go into the W gulf, some stay just east offshore, and some still don’t even have a TC. So, I’d call it a mixed bag of possibilities.

I hope he holds onto his forecast this time and doesn’t bail to Wx Bell marketing and weenie related pressure. It is weaker than model consensus has it at this time, but Nino 3.4 has finally been steadily cooling recently with the help of a +SOI (finally). Also, keep in mind that the equivalent RONI is already near -0.7, solidly into weak Niña. It wouldn’t surprise me if we end up with a moderate RONI based peak.

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to meander near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. This could be one of those cases when the NHC is behind when they then up the %s quickly with each TWO and before you know it is a cherry. But it obviously still remains to be seen if this is going to develop. It wouldn’t surprise me if it did. They’re probably too low with 10%/20%.

I’d love to see him both stick with warmer than normal and also get it right. It would help his long range winter forecasting reputation, which has been hurting recently, immensely.

It is important for folks to not hang onto longer range operational solutions whether strong ( like in this case) or weak (like in most other cases). But *fwiw* the 12Z Euro has a cat 2 moving NNW in the south central GOM at 240.

Good news per this post in the NYC forum: I say good news because it is what the model consensus has been strongly suggesting, is consistent with La Niña/strong -PDO, and his going warmer than normal (I wouldn’t call it “warm” like Brian does) is a huge breath of fresh air for him. He hasn’t had even one (per googling as they’re all out there in Google-land) AN NE DJF since at least 2014-5. They’ve all been NN or colder. The best test of his forecasting abilities would be to stay with AN in the NE and getting it right. The key though is whether he’ll revise it colder later like he did in 2020-1, which was initially ~+3 in the NE but then cooled to NN. I expect @snowman19to faint lol.

Thanks for letting us know as I had been unaware of this. It is refreshing to hear he’s going AN at all in the NE US initially. Going back to 2014-5 (as far back as can be seen when googling, which I just did for each year), I see only one other time he’s gone AN for DJF in the NE US but that was only initially: - It was 2020-1, when he was ~+3: https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2020-21-outlook However, that was revised on 11/25/20 to NN: https://www.weatherbell.com/final-winter-2020-21-forecast So, I can’t find even one year back to 2014-5 when he went and stayed AN DJF in the NE. Thus, the test will be to see if he actually holds onto the slightly AN.

10 (20%) of 6Z EPS members are 990 mb or lower in the Caribbean at 144 hrs! That compares to only 6 on the active 0Z at 150 and is the same as the 10 (20%) of yesterday’s 12Z at 162.

At 8AM, the NHC TWO reduced the central AEW’s chances from 10/50 to 0/40. The E ATL AEW remains at 0/20. The 0Z EPS had a significant number of worrisome tracks for the CONUS fwiw.

We skipped all of Sep already? Wow, time really does fly more and more as we get older! Did you see the still pretty active 0Z EPS? And just for a reminder about yesterday’s Euro Weeklies’ very active late Sept prog: 9/23-29: 150%/norm 10/ACE = 15 (was 12 two days ago) That said, you could end up right for all anyone knows.

Today’s Euro Weeklies update: significantly more active than run from 2 days back 9/2-8: 60%/norm 15/ACE =9 (was 6 two days ago) 9/9-15: 80%/norm 16/ACE = 13 (was 8 two days ago) 9/16-22: 80%/norm 13/ACE = 10 (was 9 two days ago) 9/23-29: 150%/norm 10/ACE = 15 (was 12 two days ago) -So, the 4 week period has risen from two days ago’s 35 (65% of normal) to 47 today (87% of normal). -It not only has incorporated anticipated increased near term activity, but has also increased week 4 -Since week 4 was first released two runs ago, it has been projected to be the busiest week of the 4 despite it having significantly lower normal ACE. -Typically, a reversion to the mean is stronger further out in time. So, a forecast for a whopping 150% of normal way out in week 4 is quite a strong signal that late Sept. is liable to be nasty. Very active wouldn’t necessarily mean high land impacts if we’re lucky, however.

I’m curious. What’s the difference between the MT and the ITCZ? It appears to me that when you refer to MT that you may also be referring to the ITCZ. Going way back to John Hope on TWC, I remember him often referring to the ITCZ as the latitudinal band of clouds (typically at or N of 10N in the MDR). But I don’t recall ever hearing him call it the MT. Are they essentially one and the same? If they are, why is it called two different things?

12Z: -Euro ensemble for 40% AEW: very active with many landfalls CONUS, especially LA to FL Gulf, SE FL, and NC -Slowsky CMC finally finished 2.5 hours late: Cat 1 in SE Gulf moving NW -JMA 1008 low moving WNW just SE of Grand Cayman at end (192)