GaWx

In his free video today, he said nothing about his NYC 5 BN/20" snow prediction for 3/1-4/15. Instead, it was dominated by his saying that SST increases over the last 40+ years may have been primarily caused by sharp increases in underwater seismic activity. Then he said that CO2 increases resulted from increased SSTs based on a two year lag after the last two superstrong El Niños as opposed to the other way around. I'm just communicating what he said. He's great at cherry picking, which is probably what he's doing here. He also said that the prime reason for a trough on the west coast/ridge east coast this winter was a "hotspot" in the N Pacific south of the Aleutians. He said that the strength of the upcoming El Niño is likely going to be dependent on how strong is the Wolf Volcano(es) activity off the west coast of South America. Evidently, JB is feeling that underwater volcanic activity may be the most important factor regarding climate change as well as for the shorter term. One thing that's likely biasing him away from the idea of fossil fuel emissions being the primary cause of GW is his having energy clients. In summary, I think he's lost it.

Don, JB sounds desperate and he's clearly not admitting to his impending major forecast failure. So now he's citing underwater volcanoes as a potential indirect main cause of GW as you've undoubtedly read: "@BigJoeBastardi · 6h 75% of volcanic activity is underwater and we know virtually nothing about it . Given that even Al Gore admits how hot the center of the earth is, would it not stand to reason that scrutiny of that input should be a major priority?" -------------- Where the heck is he getting this from? What do you know about underwater volcanoes and their effect on ocean temperatures? In trying to be as open-minded as possible to what sounds to me like BS, is there any reasonable chance that they can be having a significant effect on ocean temperatures? Is it possible for the absolutely massive volume of water in the oceans to somehow be significantly affected? I don't see it, but still want to read your feeling about this.

It is now in the low 80s here with dewpoints in the 50s, a beautiful blue sky, and notable breezes. The birds are very active as if to say spring is back. This is all making for a pleasant day to be outside. If that looks like a copy and paste from yesterday, that's because it is. Unlike yesterday though, I hope to have some time today to sit outside and take it in.

More on 1982-3: In the SE, DJF 1982-3 temperatures averaged near normal. KATL had 10.3" that season from a highly unusual four different events. No season's snowfall has exceeded that there since but there was heavier prior, including 1935-6 and the historic 1894-5. To top that off, Raleigh had 1.8" on April 18th! That was and still is their latest measurable on record, with 1989's April 11th second latest. Those are the only two measurable April events there during the last 100 years. But the prior 40 years had four Aprils with measurable at Raleigh.

In the SE, DJF 1982-3 temperatures averaged near normal. KATL had 10.3" that season from a highly unusual four different events. No season's snowfall has exceeded that there since but there was heavier prior, including 1935-6 and the historic 1894-5. Regarding that April of 1983 latest on record JFK accumulating snow that you mentioned, Raleigh, NC, had 1.8" on the 18th from the same system. That was and still is their latest measurable on record, with 1989's April 11th second latest. Those are the only two measurable April events there during the last 100 years. But the prior 40 years had four Aprils with measurable.

On this date 40 years ago, Atlanta (the official station at the airport) received 7.9" of a very wet snow from a Miller A GOM low near the tail end of the very strong El Niño of 1982-3. The high and low that day were 47/32 with the high just after midnight preceding the snow. Nowhere near that much had been expected due to the borderline temperatures. This 7.9" is the 3rd heaviest on record in Atlanta with only late January of 1940's 8.3" at the airport (10" downtown) and mid January of 1893's 9.6" (downtown) exceeding this. For those not familiar, the airport is ~10 miles south of downtown. During the 11 days prior, KATL's lowest was 32 (and that was 11 days prior) while highs were all 51-73. We even got a trace of sleet way down here (Savannah) from this, our second latest wintry precip on record.

On this date 40 years ago, KATL received 7.9" of a very wet snow from a Miller A GOM low near the tail end of the very strong El Niño of 1982-3. The high and low that day were 47/32 with the high just after midnight preceding the snow. Nowhere near that much had been expected due to the borderline temperatures. This 7.9" is the 3rd heaviest on record in Atlanta with only late January of 1940's 8.3" at the airport (10" downtown) and mid January of 1893's 9.6" (downtown) exceeding this. For those not familiar, the airport is ~10 miles south of downtown. During the 11 days prior, KATL's lowest was 32 (and that was 11 days prior) while highs were all 51-73. We even got a trace of sleet way down here from this, our second latest wintry precip on record.

The new Euro weekly for 4/3-10 (Masters time) has switched from a pretty strong cold signal to a neutral signal. Actually, all of the weeks have a neutral signal.

It is now in the low 80s here with dewpoints in the 50s, a beautiful blue sky, and notable breezes. The birds are very active as if to say spring is back. This is all making for a pleasant day to be outside. If I had the time, I'd be sitting outside now to take it all in. There's no notable cold wx in sight at least down this way. It looks solidly AN til it cools to possibly a little BN near 3/28 for a couple of days.

March, specifically, was actually AN in 2020-22. The last ones BN were in 2019 and 2018, with 2018 similarly to 2023 influenced to colder by a major SSW the prior month. Despite the very cold mid month thanks to the Feb SSW/very weak SPV, March of 2023 appears to be headed to pretty close to normal rather than solidly BN because the first 10 days overall were so warm. In 2018, it turned colder a bit earlier due partially to that SSW being about 4 days earlier and less time needed to overcome the strong -PNA that had been in place. This time it took til 3 weeks after the major SSW, a bit longer than the more typical 10-14 days, again thanks to the stubborn strong -PNA that didn't give up easily. It remains to be seen whether or not a particular location's March will be colder than Feb as it will be close. But I expect at least some to be colder.

In my area, KSAV (airport) ended up with a low of 35 this morning (normal is 50). Similar to you, this was the coldest low of this airmass due to having a better radiational cooling setup vs yesterday, when the low was 36. But unlike your area, today wasn't the coldest of this month as KSAV had 34 with the prior cold period on 3/15 followed by 35 on 3/16. At KSVN (Hunter AAF), the low today was 38, which is warmer than yesterday's 36. The radiational conditions weren't quite as good as at KSAV.

As @dsaurhas alluded to, having cold during and near the Masters is common. Today's Euro weekly for 4/3-10 suggests the patrons and golfers may need to bundle up (see below). There have been eight Weeklies runs covering that week and the one issued today has by a good margin the strongest cold signal for the SE/E as the others were either neutral or favoring warmth. That week has the strongest cold signal for the SE on the run and looks to be largely -NAO influenced. Are there more frosts and even freezes on the way for much of the SE within the first 10 or so days of April? This could be another Feb SSW influenced cold period as major SSW influences sometimes last a month or longer. Stay tuned! Today's Euro weekly for 4/3-10, which is reminiscent of what many runs correctly called for the very cold week of 3/13-20:

With today's 28 at KATL being the coldest year to date, that (March 20th) sets a new record by one day for the latest coldest year to date (excluding the subsequent cold season that starts late in the year, of course). So, this is on day 79 of 2023. The old record was March 19th of 1892, though that was a leap year meaning that it was also the 79th day of that year. However, unlike today, that coldest to date on 3/19/1892 was actually a tie with 1/7/1892. By the way (this is very likely just a coincidence), the Arctic north of 80N just had their coldest day of the winter to date on March 16th.

KATL did it. They had a low of 28 this morning, making it the coldest of the year to date and since way back on 12/26/2022! Congratulations, airport!

Don, You might find it interesting that NC cities such as Raleigh, Greensboro, and Fayetteville had 5-10" of snow from this early April of 1915 snowstorm! These are by far the heaviest April snows there on record. A trace even fell at least as far south as Columbia, SC. Many all-time record April low highs (still to this day) were set deep into the SE (including Jacksonville) along with cold rains. Savannah had a high as low as 46 and lows in the upper 30s with rain. Edit: Per meteorologist Eric Webb, this was at the tail end of a moderate El Niño.

Just for the record, I think this model is trolling you: April Fools! But this is really on this crazy model's crazy 6Z run for April 1st following it having record lows in the Dakotas 3/29-31 following it having (near) record lows in S Canada 3/28. The GFS (like is the case for some other models) often overdoes cold lows over snowcover sometimes badly like it probably is doing in this run over the Dakotas and S Canada, which very likely is leading to a colder airmass plunging down from Canada. The next run will probably be much warmer late March through 4/1. But regardless: @dsaurdoes sometimes say to wait til after the Masters before declaring cold to be over. Don't argue with Tony as he knows his SE weather!

Just posted by Wilmington, NC, NWS: UPDATE AN INTERESTING MORNING! ADDED SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE PER RADAR RETURNS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SEVERAL CREDIBLE REPORTS THAT SOME SLEET PELLETS HAVE BEEN MIXING IN AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WELL ABOVE FREEZING BUT SOME STRONG WET BULB INFLUENCE OBVIOUSLY GOING ON. GIVEN THE SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURE FELT THIS WOULDN'T BE THE CASE FOR MUCH LONGER ESP AS VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. ------------------------ It makes sense with 850 mb temperatures well below 0C (-3 to -4 C) there. 925s were also sub 0C. Edit: Lows of 36 at KSAV and KSVN, not quite as cold as the 34/35 at KSAV on 3/15 and 3/16, respectively.

These wild swings within a few days are what makes the non-summer and especially winter months much more interesting to me as regards forecasting than the doldrums of summer. KATL ended up with a low above the forecasted high 20s, 31. Tonight should be colder there and in most of the SE, the coldest of the month to date in much of the SE although probably not here and nearby.

For those like myself who enjoy sunny, cool to cold, and low dewpoints for outdoor activities, this is a day to savor, which I'm doing knowing there are very few of these during May-Sep and there almost for sure won't be another near this cold again after this cold spell ends til at least November. I'm especially appreciative of this cold spell knowing 80s should be back here later this week. I had a great walk yesterday evening and look forward to another enjoyable one today. It is now near 60 with breezy conditions, dewpoints in the 20s, and a beautiful deep blue sky that Canadian airmasses often provide along with some pretty cirrus. Meanwhile, wow at how cold it is in the big ATL, what would be cold even for mid January!

After the prior impressive one, the second Canadian airmass is even more impressive in Atlanta. Tomorrow's high is progged to be 45 (with full sunshine!), which would be the coldest since the 45 of way back on January 14! There are 3 freezes on the way, with high 20s forecasted to be the coldest at Hartsfield the next two nights. Anything 28 or lower would be their coldest since 12/26! Let's go! You don't often get -15C at 850 in TN in mid March, but this may occur tomorrow at 12Z. Edit for 3AM at KATL: it is down to 41. But with only 5 more hours of cooling time, I don't know that there will be enough time to get down to the forecasted 28. Actually, 24 hours ago it was already down to 40. But the dewpoint then was still up at 32 vs the current way down to 19. We'll see if KATL makes it as a secondary cold front came through recently and cooling may accelerate with clearing skies. Nashville is now down to 27. Huntsville is 32, Chattanooga is 33, and Rome is 37 (all with clear skies). Regardless, Sun night will probably be colder if it doesn't get to the upper 20s later tonight. Edit: @dsaurI would have loved for you to get a pellet or three but it was way too dry for anything to get to the ground.

Sometimes the CMC typically being the coldest of the models on good radiational cooling nights pays off. But overall, it is well known that this model suffers from a significant cold bias. Regarding today's 12Z, it has low 20s lows in much of the Atlanta suburbs for 3/20 and 3/21 (I'll call it ~21 on 3/20 and ~23 on 3/21) per the Tropical Tidbits maps. What do other models show for 3/20 and 3/21 lows for the Atlanta suburbs? - GFS (12Z) 30 and 35 - ICON (12Z) upper 20s and 35 - UKMET (12Z): upper 20s and low 30s - Euro (0Z): upper 20s and low 30s So, in typical CMC fashion on good radiational nights, it has lows significantly colder than the other major models. On 3/20, it has ~21 vs ~28-30 on the other four. On 3/21, it has ~23 vs ~32-35 on the other four. I'll use the average of the NWS' lows for Marietta, NE Atlanta, and W Atlanta as representation for the average suburb low and see how the models end up doing. For the prior cold snap, the coldest these 3 stations averaged for a low was 28 on 3/15. So, the CMC is calling for this next airmass' coldest to be a whopping 7 colder (on 3/20) than 3/15 vs the other models being about the same on 3/20 as 3/15. I plan to post the verifications regarding 3/20-1 afterward.

Indeed, after the GFS had a good number of runs (in addition to the 12Z 3/15 JMA for 3/19-20 and a couple of teases by the CMC) with a widespread multi-inch SE snowstorm in parts of N GA, NW SC, and much of NC 3/21-2, no model is now showing anything close to a significant wintry threat in the SE. The GFS runs with the most widespread multi-inch snow (they're still on Tropical Tidbits) were these runs: 3/11 6Z, 3/12 12Z, 3/13 6Z, and 3/14 6Z/12Z. Actually, practically all of the GFS runs from 3/10 12Z through 3/15 6Z had multi-inch snow in some non-mountainous locations before abruptly ending that with the 3/15 12Z run.

These last three days of wx have been near ideal for March from my point of view. The walks have been fantastic. The contrast to the very warm and muggy 2/21-3/7 couldn't have been much greater. The dewpoints going way down into the high teens yesterday was awesome. Today's 20s dewpoints along with sunshine and highs in the 60s felt so good. Felt like a pleasantly cool summer day up in the CO Rockies! KSAV had lows of 34 and 35 these last two days, the coldest since way back on January 28th!

Lol and here it may end up helping! It is quite possibly related to the very warm Atlantic. From this same wave 1, the 0Z CMC came very close to wintry precip late Saturday night from C GA to SE NC with rain just meeting the 0C 850 line. There was nothing like that in recent runs as the precip was offshore the SE. So, a big NW shift with this, too!

Check out the 0Z GFS. Stronger wave 1 on this, too, at the expense of wave 2. Of this trend continues, wave 1 could turn out to be the primary, which would be good because the cold air has much less time to modify. Even though the 0Z GFS had no wintry, the precip just missed reaching the 0C 850 in SC before exiting stage right. Look at the trend of recent GFS runs and you'll see the precip from wave 1 getting further NW.