GaWx

The Happy Hour Goofy is BN dominated in the SE throughout the run.

This afternoon is near ideal here! The temperatures are near normal (highs near 80) but with 30s dewpoints, beautiful blue skies, and a gentle breeze. I could take this all year round. This month has had quite a few similar days. Tomorrow looks similar but with more clouds.

Per two regular posters April is headed to ~58, warmest on record. NYC Mays have been colder than 58 six times since 1870 or once every 25 years. That implies ~4% chance. However, the last one was way back in 1967 during a colder climate. Also, each of those six sub 58 Mays followed a BN to NN April as the six preceding Aprils were 46.9-49.6. This all tells me that the true chance for next month being colder than 58 without knowing how May would start is probably <4%. With May progged to start off BN, I'd raise the chance back up some though probably not above 5% considering our warmer climate.

Not since at least 1870 at Central Park. The closest was 1945, when May was only 3.6 warmer followed by 2005, when May was only 3.8 warmer, and then followed by three that were only 4.6 warmer (2002, 1968, 1915).

Due to how extreme this event was, I feel this is quite possibly not just a 1 in 1,000 year event but also perhaps a once in several thousand year event as Erich Fischer suggests above. However, I also maintain for the reasons I already stated that there's no indication that AGW/CC had much, if anything, to do with the set of freak factors that lead to this. Keep in mind that this occurred over only a small area relatively speaking. Ft Lauderdale is 34 sq mi. I estimate that as much as 35 sq miles had 20+" of rain. And that's probably conservatively high. So, that's 35 sq miles out of 3.5 million sq miles in the entire US. So, there are 100,000 parcels of land the size of Ft Lauderdale in the US. Even though it is obviously a huge deal wherever it occurs, a 1 in several thousand year event occurring over 1/100000 of the US isn't hard to fathom. For that matter, the expectation is that on average several of these 1 in several thousand year events would occur somewhere in the US each year. Whereas I believe that events such as the extreme rains from Hurricane Harvey (covered a much larger area) for example, were made more probable due to AGW, I see no evidence of that for this event for the reasons I stated in my earlier post. But there are certain folks that do their best to blame AGW/CC for as many extreme events as possible even without ample evidence. Imho, that actually leads to more folks denying the existence of AGW.

An extremely dry airmass over N FL: Per KJAX: FAIR SKIES AND A NEAR RECORD DRY AIR MASS FOR MID-APRIL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER OUR AREA, WITH OUR MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE ONLY REGISTERING 0.24 INCHES OF PWAT (RECORD FOR 12Z ON APRIL 18 IS 0.20 INCHES). This along with other great radiational cooling parameters allowed lows for a number of major stations to get all of the way down into the low 40s, including Hogtown and Jacksonville at 42. All of the way down in north-central FL at Brooksville it was down to 43. That's only 50 miles NNE of Tampa. Currently the dewpoint is a mere 28 at Ocala with only 17% RH!

More on this huge Ft Lauderdale rain: - Records go back to 1913. - 25.91", which fell mainly within just a 12 hour period, far exceeds the greatest there on record in one calendar day. The old record was 14.59" on 4/25/1979 from a weak low in the NE GOM. Here are prior 10"+ 2 calendar day rains: - 16.74" 10/19-20/1924 from hurricane moving NE from NW Caribb. - 15.79" 4/24-5/1979 from weak NE GOM low - 13.72" 6/2-3/1930 with no tropical system anywhere nearby - 13.10" 10/11-12/1947 from hurricane moving NE from NW Caribb. - 12.25" 10/31-11/1/1969 near stationary front - 11.00" 10/4-5/1948 from hurricane moving NE from NW Caribb. - 10.89" 5/27-28/2003 (nothing tropical). - 10.75" 3/14-15/1919 (nothing tropical). - 10.68" 11/19-20/1973 (nothing tropical). - 10.14" 6/7-8/1999 (nothing tropical). The THREE day record is "only" 18.24" set 10/19-21/1924 per this: https://www.newsweek.com/fort-lauderdale-third-annual-rainfall-only-7-hours-1794169?amp=1 Interestingly, no 10"+ event has occurred from a tropical cyclone since way back in 1948! If someone had told me before I did this research that it had been 75 years since the last from a TC, I would have wondered if that was accurate. Is there any clearcut evidence that GW was a major factor? No clearcut evidence imho. Why? - It occurred with dewpoints in the low 70s and offshore SSTs no higher than the low 80s. Yes, those are above average for mid April. However, SSTs get into the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints into the upper 70s every summer and yet nothing even close to this heavy an event has occurred most years in S FL summers. - Look at the decades for the listed 11 heaviest Ft Lauderdale events since 1913: 1910s, 1920s, 1930s, 1940s (2), 1960s, 1970s (2), 1990s, 2000s, 2020s This looks like a pretty even distribution. If these records had been heavily influenced by the 3 or so degree F warmer globe, I would have expected a heavier concentration since the 1980s (and especially in summer/early fall). Yet, there have been only 3 of 11 since then.

The ONI peak has risen 3.0+ only once on record over the last 173 years from one fall/winter to the next and that was the 3.1 from 1971-2 to 1972-3. In order to get a super Nino in 2023-4, a rise of 3.0 would be needed. Based on this along with perceived warm ENSO model bias this time of year, whereas the chance isn't zero, I believe the odds are low. Like @snowman19 I favor strong (+1.5 to +1.9) right now with a chance of as weak as high end moderate and just a small chance at super.

Note that he said "perhaps the strongest ever in late summer" as opposed to saying "likely" or even just "good chance". "Perhaps" probably means fairly low chance. So, he's not actually predicting the strongest late summer 3.4 anomaly (warmer than +1.9 for JAS). But by saying that, he's sort of covering himself for that low possibility just in case based on the models. With several models being in the high 1's by late summer, saying "perhaps" strongest ever by late summer isn't far fetched imho. Personally, I'm leaning a fair bit lower than that (probably no warmer than mid +1 range) for that early based on perceived warm model bias.

Details mainly for entertainment due to it being a cold outlier: The 12Z Euro is its coldest run yet in the SE for early next week and is significantly colder than the 12Z GFS (both meaning it is likely too cold) with 0C 850s getting just about down to here and a low of 39 at ATL on 4/24 along with several inches of upslope snow in the mountains along the TN/NC border this weekend into early next week. Despite it likely being too cold, a BN pattern would be supported for then especially by a preceding sub -3 AO (lowest since December) and MJO phase 1. A dropping NAO probably helps, too, although by April correlations of -NAO to cold in the deep SE on average drop significantly vs March per charts. Even after then, the GEFS has a pretty strong +PNA for at least a few days very late this month. That could allow for still another cool/mild (BN and low dewpoints) shot of Canadian air then.

Early to mid next week is looking pleasantly cool at night and mild during the afternoons with very low RH. The AO is progged to go below -3 4/19-20, the lowest since December. Also, late next week the PNA is forecasted to get to its highest level since January. Today and tomorrow are looking to be similarly pleasant. Edit: The forecasted MJO phase 1 (and possibly 2 soon after) favors BN in the SE in April.

Doesn't he mean strongest 3.4 on record for the late summer, itself? I see almost no chance for strongest on record 3.4 by late summer. That would be well into the +2 range: +2.6 per 2015-6 and +2.9 per 1877-8. The strongest on record in JAS, alone, is +1.9. The model consensus is no warmer than the high +1 area by JAS and that's ignoring what I think is a warm bias.

The volatile Nino 1+2 region held onto an anomaly of +2.7 C for a second week. Impressive! I still feel the odds favor cooling back some from this later this month (two more weekly readings to go in April) as a correction of sorts after the fastest on record 3.5 C warming of the anomaly within just 13 weeks. We'll see: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Compared to past April ENSO outlooks, the CPC is more confident in El Niño in ASO than in all other years since 2003 with 2002 being close based on JJA: - 2023: (was 61% in March): 82%. - 2019: (false alarm to continue): 55% - 2018: 37% - 2017 (false alarm models 89%): 50% - 2015: 64% - 2014: 61% - 2012 (later false alarm): 35% - 2011: 25% - 2009: 30% - 2006: 30% - 2005: 40% - 2004: 40% - 2002: 70% in JJA So, in order of CPC confidence of El Niño in ASO as of April: 2023, 2002, 2015, 2014, 2019, 2017, 2004/2005, 2018, 2012, 2006/2009, 2011 Edit: This doesn't mean that it is necessarily predicting the strongest El Niño of this period. Rather, it is a function of the high confidence of El Niño forming and forming early.

Regarding Phil's list of 1969, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2015: - The best guess I have as of now for 2023 is for a Nino peak of +1.3 to +1.9 with a best guess near +1.7. - 1969 (18/12/3) peaked at only +0.9, 2004 (15/9/6) at only +0.7, 2006 (10/5/2) at only +0.9, 2012 (19/10/2) at only +0.4, and 2014 (8/6/2) at only +0.7. These five average 14/8.4/3. So, I'd be inclined to lower those years' numbers to make them more usable. - 2015 peaked way up at +2.6. So, I'd be inclined to raise 2015's numbers (11/4/2) to make it more usable. - That leaves 2002 (+1.3 peak) with 12/4/2 and 2009 (+1.6 peak) with 9/3/2 as the best analogs of this group and thus I'd be inclined to not adjust these. These two average 10.5/3.5/2. - 2023 appears to currently be close to the warmest in the Atlantic on record and that, alone, is a somewhat bullish factor (how bullish in the face of a high end moderate or stronger Nino is the very hard to answer question) vs the listed 8 analogs. My leaning is to add only a little for this as the listed years are already assuming near to warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic. - So, lower the 5 weak ENSO years' average of 14/8.4/3, raise 2015's 11/4/2, and don't adjust 2002/2009's average of 10.5/3.5/2. The 2nd and 3rd are in conflict. From this, my best guess would be to go with 12/5/2. Then I'd adjust this slightly upward to account for the current near record warm Atlantic. That gets me to 13/6/2. - So, my current best guess for 2023 fwiw (worth at least the price paid for this ) is for 13/6/2. Phil just happens to also be at 13/6/2. So, I like his prediction. - I now need to come up with my ACE. Phil has 100. ACE: the five too weak ENSO years averaged 140. This needs to be adjusted downward. 2015's 81 needs to be upped. 2002/09 averaged 76 and needs no adjustment for the ENSO side of the equation......hmmmm.... - Based on the above along with a slight upward adjustment for the very warm Atlantic, I'm going with ACE of 87 as of now to go along with my first guess of 13/6/2.

In addition to a suggested warm bias of the Euro ensemble and probably some other models, the current subsurface is another reason to feel that a super Nino is only at a low chance. The current subsurface has the warmest anomaly below Nino 3.4 at just over +3 C. I'll call it +3.25. That's a good indicator of impending El Niño: But, compare this to those at this time of year before both the 2015 and 1997 super Ninos: 2015: warmest anomaly near +5.5 C: 1997: warmest anomaly near +6 C: So, whereas a significant El Niño is still likely based on the subsurface below Nino 3.4, a super Nino is not being suggested based on the subsurface comparisons of warmest of +3.25 now vs +5.5 in 2015 at this time and +6 in 1997 at this time.

In developing El Niños since 1982, the fastest 3 month warmings in Nino 1+2 prior to the current 3.5 were: - In 1997, it was 3.0 (Apr 16-July 16 of 1997): rose only 0.2 subsequent 4 weeks to that Nino's max followed by fall of 0.9 the two weeks after that - It also rose 3.0 Feb 26-May 28 - Fastest in 1982 only 2.3 - Looking back at other Niños that reached 2.0 in Nino 3.4 (1972-3, 1965-6, 1888-9, 1877-8), the fastest 3 month warming in Nino 1+2 was only 2.25. - So, with Jan of 2023 being -0.35, climo suggests that it won't be easy for April of 2023 as a whole to average much more than about +2. Thus, the +2.7 that was just released smells strongly like a max at least for awhile. So, I kind of expect a "correction" or at least a stall of sorts in Nino 1+2 for at least the rest of this month as history suggests this highly volatile relatively small region's 3.5 warming in 3 months has sort of gotten ahead of itself. It wouldn't at all surprise me if it cools notably in the update to be released this coming Monday though that isn't an outright prediction.

Have 1+2 anomalies recently warmed the fastest on record? - it has risen 3.5 the last 13 weeks/3 months, the fastest on record (since 1982) for 13 weeks just beating the old of 3.3 set Feb-May 1983 - fastest in 2 weeks is 2.3, set in March of 2003, twice as fast as the fastest two weeks this time Going back to 1870 (monthly), the fastest one month rise has been 1.95, set April to May, 1905. I don't think that will be broken. The fastest two month rise has been 2.65, set in Jan to March of 1957. It exceeded 2.0 two other times: - rose 2.32 Feb to April 1935 - rose 2.19 April to June 1997 - depending on how well the rest of April holds the warmth, there will be a chance for Feb to Apr to exceed 2.0.

The last two evenings have been absolutely beautiful and perfect for walking. Tomorrow will be another. Meanwhile, I saw a red fox in my backyard this afternoon! It didn't appear to just be passing through as it was out in the open for several minutes and in no hurry to leave. So, there may be a den in my bushes near the fence in back or perhaps in the back yard of the neighbor behind me. I do recall seeing several foxes (sometimes together) around my property (including walking in the middle of the quiet street at night) last year.

Looking back all of the way to 1870, here's a link to monthly SST anomalies in Nino 1+2: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data Looking at April, the warmest April monthlies all of the way back to 1870 in 1+2 by far are 1998 and 1983, which were as previously mentioned after rather than before their respective El Niño peaks. All other Aprils were over a degree cooler! I then focused on April anomalies in Nino 1+2 just prior to the El Niños that reached +2.0+ in Nino 3.4 for 3 month averaged periods: 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, 1965, 1888, and 1877. - 2015: +0.6 - 1997: +1.0 - 1982: -0.5 - 1972: +1.1 - 1965: +1.7 (warmest of any pre-Nino April back to 1870) - 1888: +0.9 - 1877: +0.0 The first week of April of 2023 was +2.7. But it is as many know by far the most unstable Nino region from week to week. So, it could easily fall back sharply during the next few weeks. But if it doesn't fall back much, we'd end up with by far the warmest pre-El Nino April in Nino 1+2 for all El Niños back to at least 1870! We'd be so far into uncharted territory.

For an ONCOMING El Niño in the highly volatile Nino 1+2, the current +2.7 is way warmer than any other one in April since 1982. The old record warmth in 1+2 during April in an oncoming Nino back to 1982 was +1.3 set in 2015 and in 1997. April 2015 peaked at +1.3 April 2009 peaked at +0.6 April 2002 peaked at +1.1 April 1997 peaked at +1.3 April 1982 peaked at -1.0 (yes, it was still negative) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Here's the way I'm looking at the ENSO climo from year to year based on looking at the combination of the CPC table since 1950 and Eric Webb's tables prior to 1950 that go back to 1850: - The greatest rise since 1850 in the 3 month average from one fall/winter to the next is 3.1, which was from the 1971-2 moderate Niña to the 1972-3 super Nino. - Next largest rises were 2.9 (1996-7 to 1997-8), 2.8 (1964-5 to 1965-6), 2.6 (1975-6 to 1976-7 and 1917-8 to 1918-9), 2.5 (1924-5 to 1925-6), 2.4 (2008-9 to 2009-10 and 1981-2 to 1982-3), 2.3 (1910-1 to 1911-2), and 2.2 (1956-7 to 1957-8 and 1898-9 to 1899-1900). - So, there have been 11 rises greater than 2.0 since 1850. The 2022-3 ENSO dipped to a low of -1.0. So, in order for 2023-4 to reach super Nino strength (+2.0+), it would take THE largest rise since the late 1800s (the 3.1 rise from 1971-2 to 1972-3) to accomplish that. - Based on this, alone, the chances of a super Nino peak in 2023-4 are low. - It would take a rise of 2.5 to 2.9 to get a strong Nino peak in 2023-4. There have been five rises of 2.5 to 2.9 since 1850. That, alone, suggests a significantly higher chance for a strong Nino peak than a super Nino peak in 2023-4. - Fwiw after adjusting for an implied warm bias, the April 1st Euro ensemble is suggesting that the highest chance is for strong over high end moderate or super. - Thus, as of now, I'm leaning toward a strong Nino three month averaged peak (+1.5 to +1.9) as most likely for 2023-4 with high end moderate (+1.3 to +1.4) as second most likely and super (+2.0+) as third most likely.

46.7 here now and 46 at KSAV/KSVN as of 3AM with drizzle and a steady N wind. That's crazy raw for down in this area in April! Corduroys on April 8th!!

Today has been a cloudy/wedgy day though with not much rain yet. At KSAV, the highest so far today is 57, which is tied with the record low high. The Masters had one of its most miserable golfing days ever with it suspended at mid afternoon.

Trees fell at the Masters due to winds! Thankfully, apparently nobody was hurt, thanks to just enough warning time as a result of cracking sounds just before the trees hit the ground to allow spectators to scramble. Here's the video: 0425 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE AUGUSTA DANIEL FI 33.50N 82.03W 04/07/2023 RICHMOND GA BROADCAST MEDIA BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED TWO LARGE PINE TREES FELL NEAR THE 17TH TEE BOX AT AUGUSTA NATIONAL GOLF COURSE. SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOS ALSO CONFIRMED THE DOWNED TREES. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND COINCIDES WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NO INJURIES REPORTED.