GaWx

March in the SE from @pcbjr in Gainesville to @Coach McGuirkin SE VA and about all places in between will end up slightly warmer than Feb and slightly warmer than normal. Despite the impressively cold mid-month (coldest since January in many places and even late December in a few places) induced mainly by the mid Feb major SSW along with an even weaker SPV the last days of Feb, this wasn't able to overcome the very warm first week in combination with mild dominating much of the late month. It took 3 weeks from the major SSW for it to finally get cold in the SE. Although warmth during and just after an SSW is favored/common (as shown by the image I posted), cold from a fully downward propagating weakened SPV (manifested by a solid -AO/-NAO) more typically takes only ~10-14 days to arrive in the SE as opposed to 21 days. The impressive AO/NAO drop started within 10-14 days, but the cold lagged behind. The strong -PNA/unfavorable Pacific/SE ridge likely was the main reason for the delay. So, although the cold that we did get was quite impressive, it wasn't as long in duration as it could have been without the very stubborn Pacific that first had to be overcome. Furthermore, an even stronger -PNA quickly returned for late month.

Interesting stuff! Thanks for posting that. - Regarding the Oct-Mar rainfall for 2018-9 at SF, it was at 23.33" vs the 18.96" longterm mean. So, not anywhere near top 10 wettest, but still pretty wet. - Although 8 years makes it by far the record longest between El Niño years as you stated over the last 70 years vs current record of 5 years, the record longest going back to 1850 using Eric Webb's data is 10 years (1941-2 to 1951-2).

Do you or does anyone else know where to find PNA or PDO data for individual months covering 1850-1899?

Currently, 14 of 16 dynamic models (88%) are predicting an oncoming El Niño. How does this stack up to prior March predictions? I can see them going back to 2005 at the link below. That gives us a decent sample size of 19 years. - This March's 88% is 3rd highest of all 19 and 2nd highest of the 14 not already El Niño. That's strong support for an upcoming El Niño. - 2015 was at 94%, but that was already El Niño unlike now. Regardless, the models did very well in not only calling for El Niño to continue but for it to strengthen. - The other one at 94% was the already noted 2017, which turned out to be by far the worst failure of the 19 being that it ended up La Niña. - What % of models were predicting El Niño before other El Niños that materialized? - 2018: only 46% though it was still La Niña then making it challenging for the models. - 2014: 69%, a good job since ENSO was still cold neutral at the time - 2009: 60%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time - 2006: 67%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time So, this also reiterates that 2023 being up at 88% is strong support for El Niño. The main inconsistency is 2017. ----------------- Monthly ENSO model predictions back to 2005: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

@bluewave posted this table: Time Series Summary for SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN, CA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Oct 1 to Mar 30 Missing Count 1 1862-03-30 47.73 0 2 1890-03-30 43.33 3 3 1998-03-30 39.76 0 4 1868-03-30 36.23 0 5 1878-03-30 33.93 0 6 1973-03-30 33.67 0 7 1983-03-30 33.50 0 8 1850-03-30 32.64 0 9 2023-03-30 32.30 1 10 1867-03-30 32.15 0 --------------------------------- I have some additional observations regarding this table of highest SF 10/1-3/31 precip amounts based on Eric Webb's ENSO tables that go back to 1850: - In addition to the super-strong El Niños of 1997-8, 1982-3, and 1972-3 being listed, there's also 1877-8 in there at #5. That's intuitive since it also was a super-strong El Niño, even stronger than the four since 1972-3 being that it peaked at +2.9. So, 4 of the wettest 7 were super-strong El Niños. - But 2023-4 wasn't the only La Niña in this top 10 wettest list. The 2nd wettest, 1889-90, was La Niña. Not just that it was La Niña, it dipped to -1.4 making it at the time the strongest La Niña since at least 1849-50 and significantly stronger than the current one. - Also, the 8th wettest (1849-50) was a La Niña that dipped to -1.2. - So, in addition to the intuitive four super-strong El Niños being in there, almost as many somewhat counterintuitive non-weak La Niñas (3) also made the top 10. --------------------- Eric Webb's ENSO tables (these go back to 1850): https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I'm currently favoring El Niño later this year though not yet betting the ranch. In addition to the strong model support of 14 out of 16 models, I see moderate support based on there not having been more than five years between any two of them since 1950 per this: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php So with the last one being 2018-9, 2023-4 would be right at five years making El Niño kind of due this fall/winter. But I say moderate support rather than strong support because Eric Webb's ENSO tables, which go way back to 1850, show a good number of longer than five year intervals between El Niños, including five cases of 8-10 year intervals: 1941-2 to 1951-2: 10 years 1930-1 to 1939-40: 9 years 1905-6 to 1911-2: 6 years 1888-9 to 1896-7: 8 years 1868-9 to 1876-7: 8 years 1855-56 to 1864-5: 9 years 1848-9 or earlier to 1855-6: 7+ years So, after looking at this earlier period, one might think we're actually way overdue for the next 6+ year interval between El Niños. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

What a refreshing day with upper 60s highs, upper 30s dewpoints, and plentiful sunshine. Winds were light. Looking forward to a walk soon in the cool 50s with dewpoints still down in the 40s.

As @ORH_wxman stated, the 2015-6 El Niño was well predicted. Even as early as March of 2015, the dynamic models had a mean peak of +1.2 already by summer: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2015-March-quick-look/ However, the 3/2015 models were initialized with the already existing weak El Niño. So, unlike now, the models had help from it already being El Niño. They're probably more apt to predict a moderate+ El Niño later in the year when it is already weak El Niño vs if it is only neutral at initialization like the current case. But despite the current neutral initialization the dynamic model mean is up at +1.0 by summer, which though not as strong as the +1.2 summer mean of the March of 2015 dynamic models is still quite notable: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Then again, a whopping 15 of 16 dynamic models in March of 2017 were progging El Niño by summer with a similar neutral initialization: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2017-March-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table So, don't bet the ranch this early.

I feel there's a good chance for El Nino later this year. However, based mainly on the models I felt the same way throughout the spring of 2017 for later that year (as did the CPC, JB and many others). It took me til July to give up on an oncoming El Nino that year. It turned out there was La Niña that fall/winter! So, I know never to bet anything close to the ranch on the upcoming fall/winter ENSO state this early due to unpredictability. I may bet on it, but not too heavily. Here is the AmericanWx 2017 ENSO thread, which illustrates well the epic failure of the spring 2017 model forecasts that suggested a very good chance for El Niño by summer: From that thread, this post from 9/13/2017 summed it up very well: "How can it be that we went from a good chance at an El Nino, to now a very good chance at a La Nina? Is it that unpredictable?"

I've read several articles written by Dr. Lee about certain setups in the troposphere often leading to SSWs via "heat flux". This one cited that high Scandinavian SLP coexisting with a very strong surface cyclone centered just off of NE Greenland is a pretty good indicator of an SSW soon after: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940 One of these strong SLP dipoles occurred during early Feb of 2018, just before the 2/12/2018 SSW. It just so happened that it also existed in early Feb of 2023, just before the major SSW of 2/16/2023.

This source has extensive SSW data since 1980 in table 3 with rankings of minor, major, and extreme. Note that Feb of 2018 is ranked as "extreme", one of only eight out of the 43 in the table: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/1259/2023/acp-23-1259-2023.pdf There are no November SSWs in that table. One of the most memorable in terms of influence on the E US is the extreme SSW of 1/1/1985, which lead to extreme cold due to record blocking 2.5-3 weeks later. But even extreme SSWs don't always propagate downward enough to later lead to cold.

From @bluewave post: "The pattern produced record 80° warmth at Newark in February 2018 before record March blocking produced 30” snows on Long Island." In addition to the influence from CC, both the Feb of 2018 E US warmth/record high H5 heights and subsequent Arctic blocking/cold/snow in March of 2018 were made possible by one of the most extreme "major" SSWs on record. This major SSW was centered on 2/12/2018: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/10303/2019/acp-19-10303-2019.html Though not always, it has been common for there to be strong warmth in the E US during the first 15 days after recent major SSWs followed by a sharp change to colder during days 16-30 for those SSWs that propagate downward into the troposphere and then lead to the development of a -AO.

Nevertheless, it was refreshing to see that it remained civil, a relative rarity on the internet for that kind of discussion. It was closer to civil discourse than is typical. Also, sorry to read about your loss.

Do you try to educate/enlighten any of those around you who you feel are ignorant and/or stupid? After all, ignorance and stupidity can at least be partially cured through educating. It obviously is going to be harder to help those who are stupid due to lack of intelligence, which of course is genetic. Unfortunately for them, it is a difficult situation....a disability of sorts.

For the SE overall: In terms of cold, only late winter was cold. In terms of wintry precip, it was feeble at best (vs our normals of course). Charleston did get a trace of wintry precip in Feb. Don't laugh as getting ANYTHING on the SE coast is a victory for winter lovers per the climo of most winter months on the deep SE coast having zilch.

1. Based on my location and preferences, I'd rather have El Niño than neutral and there is good support for that possibility. But after being humbled in 2017 by an epic forecasting failure, when it took me (and others like JB) til July to give up on El Niño for that fall/winter, I learned more than ever before that significant uncertainty almost always exists this early in the year and will try not to bet too heavily on any one scenario until getting later in the year. 2. Location, location: - Dec 1989 was epic in terms of severe cold in the E US and especially epic in terms of a very rare coastal SE US snowstorm. - January of 2002 gave Atlanta its heaviest snow since the great blizzard of March of 1993. - Per Eric Webb's tables, the winter of 1894-5 also was a neutral winter that followed La Niña. Feb of 1895 was absolutely epic in terms of severe cold and snow in the SE US. This includes not only a place like Atlanta, which had its snowiest month and coldest Feb on record (still is), but also down all of the way to the Gulf and SE coasts. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html 3. So as one who prefers a cold winter, I'll be glad just to lose La Niña with the hope we get El Niño.

Is the U.S. really a "nation"? Not necessarily according to this: https://www.philosophytalk.org/blog/why-america-not-nation "The short answer is that too many Americans hate, or at least really dislike other Americans for us to count as a nation."

Yeah, there hasn't been a quadruple dip LN since at least 1850 per Eric Webb's ENSO tables. So, the odds are very low for a quad dip though of course not zero. But keep in mind that neutral is quite possible as 30% of falls/winters since 1950 have been neutral, which is almost as high as the % for El Niño. Who's to say that the three in a row La Niña isn't broken with a neutral rather than El Niño? I'm not saying that I'm necessarily looking for another 2017. Rather, my point is that 2017 illustrates well the uncertainty this early despite El Niño being favored. Consider that the % chance for El Niño per the CPC is at 63%. While that's rather high for this early, it isn't even quite to a 2 in 3 chance. If they were near certain, they could have given a 90% or so chance.

Further to my prior post about the uncertainty level this early, here is a link to the March of 2017 ENSO outlook report from the Columbia University site that has model as well as official CPC probabilities: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2017-March-quick-look/ To compare, here is the link to the same issued last week: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ At this time in 2017, the model based probability of El Niño was way up at 68% already in JAS and 60% in NDJ. It had the chance at La Niña in NDJ (which is what actually ended up occurring) at a mere 11%. That compares to the current model based probability of El Niño at a nearly identical 67% as of JAS and an identical 60% in NDJ. The current chance for La Niña in NDJ is at 9%, which is not that much lower than 2017's 11%. The dynamic model mean peak for Nino 3.4 at this time in 2017 was during NDJ, when it was way up at +1.4. But NDJ ended up way down at -1.0! In comparison, the current dynamic model mean peak is only +1.0 and that's during SON. In 2017 at this time the models had a similar +1.1 during SON. But SON ended up down at -0.7. As I said in my prior post, I do feel El Niño is favored. But then again, I thought similarly at this time in 2017 per this 3/20/2017 post at another forum: "The weekly SST anomalies rose rather substantially in all 4 regions, including a rise of 0.5 C in 3.4. That is the largest weekly rise there in 3 years and is encouraging to me because it is an indication that El Niño will likely be here for next winter." At this time in 2017, JB was already showing El Niño winter temperature analogs to be used for 2017-8. He continued to go with El Niño well into the summer. I also maintained "very good" chance at El Niño through June. It took all of the way til July before I started backing down. So due to a high level of uncertainty this early as illustrated well by 2017, I wouldn't bet the farm on a strong El Niño or any El Niño for that matter for 2023-4 this early even though El Niño is favored (and I'd strongly prefer El Niño occur due to them overall averaging colder in the SE vs other ENSO).

Today's weekly SSTA release (based on last week) has the relatively volatile Nino 1+2 region up to +2.0 C. This +2.0 is quite notable since it is the highest in Nino 1+2 since 3/15/2017, when it was at +2.3. But oddly enough, that +2.3 was during a neutral period that followed La Niña (weak) just a few months earlier and preceded what turned out to be a moderate La Niña in 2017-8. Nino 3.4 was then at +0.2 (vs 0.0 last week) and peaked four times at only +0.5 during April-July. So, Nino 1+2 at times can be very misleading. Here is the link to the 2017 ENSO discussion thread to illustrate how deceptive things turned out to be in retrospect during March of 2017: From that thread, the first post (done in March) had this: "Lots of things to iron out over the coming months, including the infamous spring barrier forecast. But as of now we are under an El Niño watch with a 50-55% chance of an El Niño event for 2017-2018. 6 models have El Niño developing by July 2017. ENSO regions 1+2 are reading at 2.6 C, meanwhile regions 4, 3.4 remain cool." So, as of March of 2017 when Nino 1+2 was last +2.0+, the models were suggesting that there was a good (50-55%) chance for El Niño in 2017-8. To compare, we're now at ~63% chance for El Niño in 2023-4. However, the CFS changed drastically as per this post just 1.5 months later in early May: "The CFS has backed off dramatically on El Nino strength and has more of a weak Nino or even neutral conditions. Meanwhile the JAMSTEC is gung ho." And then this post from September summarized very well the drastic change in the ENSO outlook: "How can it be that we went from a good chance at an El Nino, to now a very good chance at a La Nina? Is it that unpredictable?" So, whereas I agree that El Niño is favored for 2023-4 and strong+ is quite possible, this 2017 thread illustrates well why there's still significant uncertainty this early.

Wow, that's awesome! I watched the point counterpoint videos regularly. I remember Ken (RIP) ending them saying "We are the weather warriors". I also remember Dr. Joe Sobel, Elliot Abrams, and a few others doing those videos. I especially enjoyed Dr. Joe!

Regarding the good and despite the mess he's been getting his forecasting reputation into in recent years largely due to minimizing the effect of AGW, I'll always have the utmost respect for his being a good father, husband, and family man overall (based on my perception, of course). I've had a good feel for his love of family based especially on the numerous videos I've seen. When they were little, he had both of his kids on a lot of the videos and they seemed happy most of the time and enjoying being with him. In judging the quality of a person (as much as I'm able to do), things like that far outweigh many other aspects.

The last few days of modeling has suggested to me fwiw no signs of unusual cold the next two weeks at least. Instead, it is suggesting to me more typical ups and downs with the % of time AN probably a bit higher than the % of time BN, especially down here. I'd prefer more BN overall but that's not what I'm seeing. AN is ok with me if the dewpoints are low enough...say mid 50s or lower. I mean a high of, say, 85 with a dewpoint of 52 along with a nice breeze and sunshine (like we had here for a couple of days a few days ago) feels good to me, especially if I'm in shorts.

He's often noted having "energy clients" going back many years in his free videos and on Twitter. Since many in the fossil fuel industry due to bias are often at odds with the research that shows the burning of fossil fuels as the primary reason for GW, I figure that some of them likely prefer a meteorologist who doesn't recognize that. With JB knowing that, I'm betting that he figures he'll have a better chance to hold onto these clients and get new ones with his denial of AGW.

So how did the cold CMC end up doing in comparison to the not as cold other models in the Atlanta suburbs for lows on 3/20-1? Here are the actual lows: March 20: Marietta 26, West Atlanta 27, NE Atlanta 25; so average was 26 March 21: Marietta 29, West Atlanta 28, NE Atlanta 28; so average was 28 rounded For March 20, the CMC predicted 21 while the others were 28-30 (GFS was at 30). For March 21, the CMC was at 23 vs 32-35 for the others. So, as expected, the CMC was quite a bit too cold (5 both nights). However, the others were 2-4 too warm on 3/20 and 4-7 too warm on 3/21. So, none of the models did all that great with their predictions 3-4 days before although the CMC was predictably too cold.