GaWx

Make that 24 W Caribbean TCs in a row with today's 6Z GFS, which gets it to TS strength before weakening over the Yucatan. The 0Z GFS had a TC but only a strong TD before weakening over Belize. Getting to 24 isn't near the record for what turned out to be a fake, which I recall getting to somewhere into the 30s. So, we need another two days to approach that record.

Over the last 5 days, the GEFS/EPS have retained going into a moderate MJO phase 4 but have backed off then going into moderate phase 5. Instead they and all models go faster back into the COD before reaching 5. Based on recent years, that's somewhat unusual per my memory and keeping in mind that the very warm MC tends to favor the MJO getting well into phase 5.

OISSTv2.1 cooled 0.078, largest 24 hour cooling since before 3/15. While these are notable, I'm confident like you are that these are just short term "corrections" after a very rapid warming.

Correction time in 3.4 (I assume only for short term): 24 hour cooloffs -CDAS has cooled 0.061, largest cooling since Mar 19th -Coral Reef has cooled 0.081, largest cooling since before Mar 15th

Over the last 4 years, the very warm WPac/Maritime Continent has helped lead to stronger and longer MC MJO phases, often mild for the E US in winter. In addition, it often causes pseudo-MC phases when the MJO isn't in the MC. All of this tends to favor a stronger than average SE ridge.

Related to this, the RONI maxed out at only ~0.4, not even at weak El Niño levels.

I'm admittedly a bit more wary about the chance that this is real based on the higher level of June activity on average preceding +1.3+ ASO El Nino's and considering that ASO in 2023 is headed there. I'll re-list them in this way to better make that point: No mid to late June W Car/GOM TC/STC formation: ASO ONI 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.2, 1.4, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2 Mid to late June W Car/GOM TC/STC formations: ASO ONI 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 1.3, 1.3, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.9, 2.2 So, for ASO of 0.5 through 1.2, there were only 6 of these W basin mid to late June formations from 30 years (20% ratio). But things really start picking up in June when the subsequent ASO is 1.3+ with 8 formations from just 11 years (73% ratio).

The last couple of Euro ens runs have gone back to very quiet through day 15 after a few runs with only a subtle increase in activity. Today's 12Z GFS run makes 17 in a row, which is still nowhere near the record for a fake.

For the first time in many days, the CDAS Nino 3.4 SSTa actually ticked down from six hours earlier albeit barely (from +0.976 to +0.975). It also looks like Nino 4 is cooling some.

I'm redoing my W Caribbean/GOM TC formations 6/11-30 for El Niño years based on ASO Nino 3.4 SSTa having to be +0.5+ as per @ncforecaster89recommendation: 1852: 0.5 none 1855: 0.5 none 1864: 0.6 none 1877: 2.2 none 1884: 0.6 none 1885: 0.8 none 1888: 1.3 one 1896: 1.2 none 1899: 0.8 one 1900: 0.5 none 1902: 1.6 two 1904: 0.6 one 1905: 1.4 none 1914: 0.8 none 1918: 0.8 none 1923: 0.7 one 1925: 0.7 none 1930: 1.1 none 1940: 0.8 none 1941: 0.9 none 1951: 1.0 none 1953: 0.8 none 1957: 1.3 one 1963: 1.2 none 1965: 1.9 one 1969: 0.8 none 1972: 1.6 one 1976: 0.6 none 1977: 0.6 none 1982: 1.6 one (STS) 1986: 0.7 one 1987: 1.6 none 1991: 0.6 none 1994: 0.6 one 1997: 2.1 none 2002: 1.0 none 2004: 0.7 none 2006: 0.5 one 2009: 0.7 none 2015: 2.2 one 2018: 0.5 none Doing it this way gives only 14 formations for 41 El Niño years for a 34% ratio. That leaves 40 formations for the 131 non-El Nino years for a 31% ratio. So, 34% for El Niño vs 31% for others is essentially a wash. But this still shows that El Niño years aren't less prone than non-El Nino years to formations during mid to late June as is the case later in the season. ------------- Edit: Further breakdown: -Only 6 formations out of 27 years (22% ratio) with ASO of +0.5 to +1.0 -2 formations out of 6 years (33% ratio) with ASO of +1.1 to +1.5. But small sample size. -Interestingly, 6 formations out of 8 years (75% ratio) with ASO of +1.6+! This is consistent with ncforecaster89's stats showing more June US landfalls with stronger El Niño events. But sample size is pretty small.

Yeah, I was counting as "El Niño years" those years for which there was El Niño by that autumn without necessarily requiring El Niño by ASO. Is your way better? Perhaps. So, I'll redo my analysis requiring El Niño in ASO if I get time.

Regarding recorded 6/11-30 W Car/Gulf TC/STC geneses since 1851, 43% (23) of the 54 storms formed during the 53 El Nino years. That's notable considering that only 31% of the 172 seasons (53 of them) since 1851 were associated with El Niño. Here are the 23 mid to late June recorded TC/STC geneses during El Nino years in either the W Caribbean or Gulf: 1865, 1880, 1887, 1888*, 1899, 1902 (2), 1904, 1913, 1923, 1929, 1939, 1957, 1958, 1965*, 1968 (2), 1972*, 1982*, 1986, 1994, 2006, 2015* * notes super El Niño years. A whopping 5 of the 7 (71%) super El Niño years had one of these storms! I'm mentioning this because there's a chance that 2023 will reach super status. This leaves 31 storms that formed during the same period in the same region during 119 non-El Nino seasons or only 26% of them. In summary, there were 23 mid to late June W Car/Gulf storms during 53 El Nino seasons for a ratio of 43%. This compares to 31 from 119 non-El Nino seasons or a ratio of only 26%. That tells me that whereas we still should take the 12 GFS runs in a row with a W Car/Gulf TCG in week 2 with a grain based on its bias toward that, we should also keep in mind that this year being El Niño means it has a significantly higher chance of occurring vs if it weren't El Niño.

CPC officially declares El Niño: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

We're now up to 12 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean and/or Gulf TC forming in week 2. Also, though still mainly quiet, the last 4 EPS runs have shown a subtle increase in activity in the W Caribbean near June 20th. Whereas the GFS has had a good number of cases in which it has fakes in the W basin even after a lot longer than 12 runs and thus it should continue to be taken with a grain of salt for now, El Niño climo actually does suggest a significantly higher chance for TC genesis in the W Caribbean and Gulf vs non-Nino years in mid to late June. I plan to post more on this El Niño climo soon.

Not only did it not budge, it actually increased by 0.2 for the later months! The problem I have is that the Euro is ~0.7 cooler and the May Euro (similar to June run) hasn't actually verified too cool in autumn since way back in 2004! So, either BoM is going to verify way too warm or else the May Euro is going to verify too cold for the first time in 19 years! Despite the lack of a net bias over the last 10 years, BoM did verify too warm by 0.6 last year and two other times since 2014.

The 12Z GFS has a Gulf H coming up from the W Caribbean in week 2. This could very easily be a fake based on the last 5+ years of history of the GFS, but nobody can possibly have any idea this far out. I count 9 GFS runs in a row with a strong W Caribbean and/or Gulf TC for around that time. Then again, I've counted 20-25+ GFS runs in a row a few times over the last 5+ years in the W basin that ended up being a fake. Also, the EPS has had nothing the last few runs.

The consensus of the latest EPS and GEFS runs for the implied SOI is for 6/8-12 to average ~+13 to +17 and for 6/18-22 to average ~-13 to -23. So, starting off with perhaps the highest 5 day average since early April, but then falling and reaching another solid -SOI period in the 11-15 day period.

Similarly, Nino 3 could be only the 4th June since 1950 per ERSST with +1.3+. This includes 1983, which was +1.52 due to the leftover warmth from the 1982-3 Nino.

OSTIA and Coral Reef Watch SSTa are both +1.1+ while OISST v2.1 and CDAS are ~+0.9 as of 0Z on June 7th. So, there's 0.2+ difference. Edit for midday June 7th OISST update: it actually just rose to +1.028 per the midday update. So, OSTIA and Coral Reef are ~+1.1 while OISST is a bit over +1.0 and CDAS is ~+0.9.

The June 6th rapidly warming NOAA Coral Reef Watch based SSTa for Nino 3.4 is way up at +1.057 and is much warmer than the also rapidly warming CDAS, which has been in the +0.80-+0.85 range today through 12Z (see comparison of graphs below). Looking back to March 14th, I can't find even one day for which CDAS was warmer than Coral Reef. There are a few days that are ~same. Otherwise, Coral Reef is mainly 0.05 to 0.25 warmer than CDAS with the current ~0.20-0.25 difference being near the maximum since March 14th. Coral Reef Watch SSTa: CDAS based: A discussion of various SSTa datasets: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDPW/46/sessions/presentations/session6_oral4.pdf

24 hour Nino 3.4 SSTa changes per Levi Cowan's CDAS graphs 6Z to 6Z: 5/29 to 5/30: +0.039 5/30 to 5/31: +0.023 5/31 to 6/1: +0.049 6/1 to 6/2: +0.009 6/2 to 6/3: +0.023 6/3 to 6/4: +0.036 6/4 to 6/5: +0.033 6/5 to 6/6: +0.084

Wow, the CDAS Nino 3.4 is zooming. It is up a whopping 0.037 over just the last 12 hours to +0.779! It has warmed 0.45 within the last 10 days. This implies that the average of the OISST and ERSST is probably currently up to near +0.9. If this keeps up, those two could be up near +1.0 within 2 days. I'm now starting to wonder if the BoM 3.4 is going to somehow get its +1.2 for June after all. Still not expecting it but I'm no longer dismissing it as extremely unlikely. Meanwhile, the SOI has finally risen almost to 0 just after a week that averaged -18. The 30 day has dropped to -20 and the 90 day has fallen to -7.5, indicative of El Niño.

I just took a walk with it near 70 and dewpoints in the mid 50s. It was similar last evening. It was very comfy for both walks. That's unusual for June down here.

But it (25) has so far been strongly over-performing per this and peak is likely still a ways out. Regardless, I no longer feel that there's much of a chance that individual solar cycle variations have much influence on our climate.

We'll see if it does. I'm educatedly guessing based on model biases and the very warm MC that it will. The GEFS/EPS do have a moderate move through 4/5. Some of the others don't even get it there outside of the circle as of now. Newly developing Nino events in 1986 (June), 1997 (May), 2002 (May and again in June), and 2004 (May) all had moderate or stronger moves through both phases 4 and 5 during May and/or June. Looking later: 1976 (Aug/Sep), 1979 (Sep/Oct), 2002 (Aug), and 2009 (Sep) had similar. That means that 7 of the 13 new El Niño events during the period covered by MJO historical data had a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 at some point(s) between May and Oct. So, there'd be nothing unusual if 2023 were to have a moderate or strong move through both 4 and 5 this month. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/