GaWx

12Z Euro: forms at/near FL and turns NE/becomes a H; hits no land til Newfoundland.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower activity due to environmental dry air. Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

12Z UKMET: similar to 0Z but weaker (TD vs TS) with trip from Key West vicinity into far E Gulf followed by turn into N FL; run ends with it near Jacksonville NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 25.0N 81.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.08.2024 108 25.0N 81.8W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.08.2024 120 26.8N 83.2W 1007 30 0000UTC 05.08.2024 132 28.0N 83.4W 1007 26 1200UTC 05.08.2024 144 29.2N 83.3W 1010 24 0000UTC 06.08.2024 156 30.2N 81.6W 1011 26 1200UTC 06.08.2024 168 30.0N 80.9W 1012 30

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas: A large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower activity due to dry air aloft. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

0Z Euro has a weak low on E coast of FL that moves offshore NE FL and strengthens to 1006 (possible TD) off SC moving toward NC at 240. So, Euro is closer to CMC/ICON than UKMET and nothing like GFS.

For C MDR system: 1) 0Z GFS turns left into Galveston as a H! 2) 0Z CMC forms off SE coast, center stays a little offshore SC/NC, and then becomes a H well offshore; ends run just off NE Nova Scotia as significant storm 3) 0Z ICON similar track to CMC but faster

For C MDR system: 0Z UKMET: large shift SW and much earlier TCG just N of C Cuba with TS near Key West then turns into FL Big Bend followed by NNE motion into SC/SE GA, NE into coastal SC and then ENE move to offshore CHS; TS nearly the entire track NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.8N 79.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2024 108 23.3N 79.9W 1007 37 0000UTC 04.08.2024 120 24.8N 81.8W 1004 39 1200UTC 04.08.2024 132 26.9N 83.2W 1003 37 0000UTC 05.08.2024 144 28.9N 83.0W 1003 33 1200UTC 05.08.2024 156 31.4N 82.5W 1008 36 0000UTC 06.08.2024 168 32.8N 79.4W 1006 35

Do you remember that during that winter (01-02) the prelude to the GFS (the MRF) had a terrible cold bias? It often showed intense and sometimes historic cold in week 2 and especially after day 10. This often mislead JB as he wouldn’t discount the cold bias. I was reading and posting about it at the old WWBB.

These are at 360 and thus not for the same system.

And it looks like the sign for more blocking on this GBI is + rather than -.

There have now been 3 days in a row of large OISST Nino 3.4 anomaly drops. It has cooled a whopping 0.40C, the fastest since a similar 3 day cooling in early April and is now down to -0.23! The equivalent RONI snapshot is likely near -0.75 to -0.80.

The 12Z EPS is still active and is fairly similar to the 0Z/6Z with some hitting the E coast but more staying just offshore and way less activity in the Gulf vs the Atlantic.

I disagree with the first part as I think both places have a good number of excellent posters. Also, keep in mind that there's overlap of membership as it isn't a pure them vs us situation. When you slam them, you're also slamming some here. But I agree with what I bolded as the moderation there is much stronger. Regardless, I think it is better to peacefully coexist than to slam each other. This isn't like Dems vs Repubs thank goodness. The tropical wx forum community is bigger than any one BB.

I disagree and feel you’re generalizing. I think it is a mix of high and low quality there just like is the case most anywhere. Also, an unknown number of members here are also members there with some actively posting at both. They must be doing something right being that they’ve been around for over 20 years.

The 12Z Euro has a TD/TS (as strong as 1004-5 mb) off FL that then moves N and landfalls between Charleston and Georgetown on 8/6.

Just like for any BB, the quality of posts there vary heavily depending on the poster. Of course, what’s quality is somewhat subjective. They have a decent number of excellent non-met posters. I like to look at multiple BBs.

1) 12Z UKMET: still has a TD though not as strong as the 0Z’s TS that had skimmed the SE FL coast at Palm Beach. The new run delays TCG til it is 50 miles NE of Cape Canaveral. It then moves NE to 150 miles E of Amelia Island, FL: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 29.0N 80.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 05.08.2024 156 29.0N 80.1W 1008 31 1200UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.6N 79.0W 1008 34 ————————- 2) 12Z ICON is weaker and further E than 0Z with a weak low near Tampa though it then moves NE to just offshore GA/SC and becomes a 1007 mb TD 3) 12Z GFS has strengthening very slow moving low central Gulf coast that becomes a 1002 mb TS there 4) 12Z CMC is further E and much weaker with just a weak low over SE FL/NW Bahamas. But then it gets stronger as it moves NE offshore NC and becomes a TS moving further OTS.

Ed, 57 (a very experienced and respected tropical pro met in Houston area who tends to be a little conservative for those who don’t know) sounds unusually bullish for him with this just out (didn’t know if you saw this yet): The real feature is the very large wave just behind the one the NHC mentions. It will be overtaking the first wave and adding its energy to the mix. Neither has much convection now, but that should change near the Bahamas or in the eastern Gulf on Saturday. I think NHC will be bumping chances up to 70-80% by Wednesday, with development just beyond 48 hours by then. I'm thinking that chances are as high as 90% by this weekend. Another working weekend for me. We already have clients requesting conference calls.

CDAS has a cold bias but it has recently been trending cooler, consistent with OISST.

2021 12 0.2885 2022 1 1.0778 2022 2 1.6830 2022 3 0.7677 2023 12 1.9365 2024 1 0.2060 2024 2 1.0894 2024 3 -0.2141 So, 2021-2 DM NAO averaged +1.0. So, 2023-4 DM NAO averaged +0.8 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

0Z GFS no TC/just weak Gulf low 0Z CMC/ICON TS into FL panhandle 0Z Euro 1006 mb TD/TS into NC OB 0Z UKMET: TS just off FL E coast that then turns NNE: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 24.8N 77.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.08.2024 132 24.8N 77.9W 1009 42 0000UTC 04.08.2024 144 26.3N 79.5W 1005 47 1200UTC 04.08.2024 156 28.2N 80.2W 1006 33 0000UTC 05.08.2024 168 30.0N 79.6W 1006 34

Though not one of top 5 most followed globals, the JMA, which along with the ICON was best with Beryl's track in the W GOM, has a TC for the first time with it in the NW Bahamas moving NNW (TD at 1013 mb). Thus, counting this, that means 3 in GOM (ICON/GFS/CMC) and 3 in SW Atlantic (UKMET/Euro/JMA). So, this run has a TC for the first time on the JMA, UKMET, and ICON.

The PDO is falling back down along with it. It’s back down to -2.15 on WCS, which means the NOAA version is probably back to near -3 or below now.

How about this for a two day drop of Nino 3.4 anomaly per OISST…it plunged 0.3 C to -0.125C!

Thanks. But I’m still wondering despite them being from different sources why they’re not even close with one near +1C and the other several degrees below 0C!