GaWx

I'm educatedly guessing that the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly to be released tomorrow will be +1.0 C. Any other guesses?

The comparisons between CDAS and OISST have been weird lately. The prior 48 hours saw the fastest 48 hour CDAS anomaly warming since early March, 0.186. So, I thought that might be a sign of continued significant warming. But during that same 48 hours, OISST actually cooled 0.025 and has now cooled 3 days in a row! And, yes, the CDAS warmed modestly the last 24 hours. But it is now slowing to a crawl again at least for now.

Today's update doesn't yet give any hint that a persistent period of major warming is starting. For the BoM model's +1.8 for July to have a chance to even come close, rapid warming needs to get going very soon. For each day that doesn't happen, the chance drops notably: -CDAS: warmed 0.018 to 0.916 -CRW: warmed barely 0.001 to 1.114 -OISST: cooled 0.018 to 0.960 Average of no change vs warming of 0.039, 0.050, and 0.020 last 3 days

Today's update: mixed -CDAS warmed 0.098 to 0.898 -CRW warmed 0.041 to 1.113 -OISST cooled 0.022 to 0.977 Avg warming 0.039 vs three prior days' warmings of 0.050, 0.020, 0.012

For the first time that I can recall this year, the TAO 5 day avg exceeds +1.0 in a portion of the central 3.4.

Today's update: -CDAS warmed 0.088 to 0.800 -CRW warmed 0.064 to 1.072 -OISST cooled (barely) 0.003 to 0.999 Average warming 0.050 vs 0.020 yesterday and 0.012 two days ago We're pretty much at put up or shut up time as far as whether or not the BoM's rapid warming to +1.8 for July will occur. For that to occur, it pretty much needs to warm steadily for the next five weeks. That's why I'm much more interested than normal in following these daily SST changes.

1. Whereas the chance for a torch during a super Nino in the NE is notable, keep in mind that THE strongest on record (1877-8) as well as 1888-9 weren't torches at all with them both near normal at NYC and Boston. At NYC/Boston, Feb of 1889 was the 16th coldest of 155 Febs back to 1869/19th coldest of 151 Febs back to 1873! Also, 1965-6 and 1972-3 were only +2 at NYC, not torches. Furthermore, at Boston 1965-6 and 1972-3 were near normal. Thus, only 3 of the 7 were torches at both places with 4 of 7 near to slightly AN at NYC and 4 of 7 near normal at Boston. 2. For the SE (using mainly ATL): -1877-8, 1888-9, 1972-3, 1982-3, and 1997-8 were all near normal -1965-6 was cold due mainly to a very cold Jan -2015-6 was the only torch of the 7 and that was entirely due to the warmest Dec on record as Jan and Feb were near normal. 3. Therefore, I feel that the idea of super Nino likely equals torch is overdone for the E US with ~equal chances of no torch in NE and high chances of no torch in SE.

Bret became a TS at 42.2W, which is the furthest east of any ON RECORD in June back to 1851.

Today's update -CDAS cooled 0.009 to 0.712 as of the 24 hours ending at 6Z, but has since had a sudden rise to 0.727 as of 12Z -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.043 to 1.008 -OISST warmed 0.030 to 1.002 Average warming 0.020

Thanks. The main reason I've been following the daily 3.4 SST anomalies the last few weeks way more closely than I ever have and will try to continue at least through the next few weeks is to try to get the best feel possible for which models are doing the best for the current month. This is especially in light of the unusually large disparity between the BoM and Euro/CFS.

Beside the BoM very likely looking to end up ~0.3 too warm in 3.4 in June on the prior two runs and it being a warm outlier, another thing in your thinking's favor is that the May Euro hasn't been too cool for ASO since way back in 2004! The May Euro had ASO at "only" +1.78 vs the May BoM's +2.53. The June Euro warmed ASO but only very slightly to +1.83. It then rises only to barely into super range at +2.04 for OND. This suggests to me that the Euro's low end super peak (+2.0 to +2.2) is still about the warmest I currently see having a reasonable chance with high end strong (+1.7 to +1.9) the most likely in my mind as of now. Also, keep in mind that converting to RONI would take away ~0.3 based on the last two trimonthlies. So, for RONI, I'm currently at +1.4 to +1.6 for most likely and +1.7 to +1.9 as about the warmest based on reasonable chances. These educated guesses will continue to be subject to change as things continue to evolve obviously.

Today's update has slowed the warming again: -CDAS warmed 0.004 to 0.721 -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.031 to 0.965 -OISST warmed 0.002 to 0.972 So, averaged warming today is only 0.012 vs yesterday's 0.041 with 2 of the 3 hardly moving.

Today's SOI unexpectedly for me fell back to a new low for the month, -27, bringing down the MTD average to -7. However, the sharp rise is still coming through June 25th. Reaching +15+ for a day or two still can't be ruled out.

Compared to the update from four days ago, 2023 has fallen back quite a bit vs the 2007-22 average and fallen back behind quite a few other years since 2007: 6/15: +160k/7th highest of 17 6/16: +320k/2nd highest of 17 6/20 (edit to say 6/22 same as 6/20): +150k/tied for 7th highest of 17

The 180-100W OHC anomaly has exceeded +1.20 throughout June so far with the latest near +1.35. So, most likely June will resume the month to month warming. It looks to be the third warmest June OHC back to 1979 behind only 1997's +2.25 and 2015's +1.51:

Well, the last two days' averages have shown warming, especially today: -CDAS warmed 0.040 to 0.717 -Coral Reef Watch warmed 0.035 to 0.934 -OISST warmed 0.048 to 0.970 Average warming today was .041

As I said above, the newest BoM run warms July to +1.8, which is a whopping 0.9 warming vs its June initialization of +0.9. I looked at the largest ERSST based monthly warmings for developing El Nino years to give me an idea of how believable a 0.9 warming in just one month is: 1. +0.86 May to June 1968 2. +0.75 Jan to Feb 1976 3. +0.71 Aug to Sep 1982 4. +0.63 June to July 1963 5. +0.56 Oct to Nov 2009 So, a 0.9 warming would about equal the largest monthly warming on record (back to 1950) for an oncoming El Niño, which was from May to June in 1968. Keep in mind that it's still possible that June will end up at +1.0 if there's enough rewarming before the end of this month. If so, it would be a 0.8 warming, which would be near the Jan to Feb of 1976 warming. So, what I get from this is that July warming to +1.8 wouldn't mean an unprecedentedly steep monthly warming meaning it is possible. However, it being about the steepest along with the prior BoM runs being too warm for June tells me to be skeptical that July will get to +1.8. The next 6 weeks will be fascinating to follow. Monthly ERSST 1950+: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Actually, you didn't beat him as @snowman19posted about this early yesterday: And then I chimed in about it yesterday: I've also pointed out that the prior BoM forecasts for June, +1.3 and then +1.2, look to be significantly too warm. This new BoM run actually initialized June at only +0.9 as I said in the above linked post. Despite that, it has July at +1.8, which is even warmer than the prior run's +1.7. A +1.8 in July would mean an amazingly steep warming from June. So, that remains to be seen, especially in light of its too warm June.

It appears that it will be upgraded at 5PM EDT per this: AL, 03, 2023061918, , BEST, 0, 112N, 414W, 35, 1008, TS This would tie it with Bret of 2017 as the earliest TS in the MDR east of the Caribbean on record back to 1851.

1. Thanks to you I've learned more about CDAS than Ive ever known. 2. I don't think he can use ERSST for daily updates because I don't think that updates daily. But correct me if I'm wrong about that. 3. I get OISST dailies from another source and thus am glad Levi provides the CDAS because I like to look at it, especially for its daily changes, to compare them to OISST and Coral Reef Watch daily changes. Also, CDAS has been good recently to give me a good feel for the minimum as to where SSTs are since it tends to run the coolest. Coral Reef dailies have recently been the warmest.

It would be nice if there were a "wow" reaction icon. Indeed, this newest run has Sep/Oct/Nov at an absolutely insane +2.9/+3.0/+3.2 vs the already pretty insane +2.6/+2.7/+2.9 on the prior run, meaning a warming of 0.3! The prior run to that was "only" at +2.4/+2.5/+2.7. So, it has warmed 0.5 for SON over the last two runs! What's even more interesting is that this new run initialized June at only +0.9 vs the prior run's June prediction of +1.2. But even with that 0.3 cooling for June, it then gets July way up to +1.8 vs +1.7 on the prior run! Meanwhile, the SOI has started its rise from yesterday's -26 June MTD low with today at -19. The NOAA weekly for last week was just released at +0.9, the same as the prior week. Based on the new BoM it likely won't rise much, if any, next week.

Per the following June 3rd post of mine, the CFSv2 then was suggesting a June SOI of ~-9 and first two weeks of July SOI of ~-9.5 fwiw:

Today's SOI of -26 is barely the most -SOI for the MTD and brings June MTD down to nearly -5. However, today should be at or near the low point with a large rise expected during the upcoming week. Around 7-8 days from now, it appears that the SOI will probably head up to near +15. Thus June as a whole will end up much higher than the -15 of May. That's not too surprising considering how far down May was. Then we'll see where July might head. July and August will be important.

Today's 3.4 SSTa update has little net change after yesterday's modest cooling: CDAS cooled 0.010 to 0.685 Coral Reef Watch cooled 0.013 to 0.876 OISSTv2.1 warmed 0.007 to 0.883

Up to 90%/90% in 2PM EDT TWO: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Blake