GaWx

That's significantly warmer than even the warmest (warm biased most likely) dataset, CRW, which had only +1.559 in Nino 3 as of July 1st and much warmer than the +1.416 of OISST. Thus, I don't buy Mario Ramirez's assertion that Nino 3 was already at +1.75 as of July 1st. Mario is no Paul Roundy! Edit for update: CRW for Nino 3 on July 2nd is warmer but still only +1.596 plus that's a day later. And OISST warmed on July 2nd but only to +1.436. By the way, the last two days of TAO five day average updates in 3.4 have shown no change.

The last two days have seen a whopping total of a 410k drop, which is the largest two day drop since at least late May. This is similar to the steep two day drop that occurred on the same dates in 2020. The 7/1/2020 drop, alone, was 340k! Often after a steep two day drop though, the subsequent few days show a more modest drop. However, 2020 went on to have another three days of steep drops (600k for the total of those three days) for a grand total five day drop of 1.1 million before it abruptly steadied out during the subsequent four days.

@so_whats_happening June SOI ended up at -3 vs the late May-June 2nd average prediction for June from CFS of -9. Highest June SOI of the 7 that preceded a super peak (back to late 1800s) was -7 with a range of -7 to -24. So, this -3 appears underwhelming as far as what predictive powers that the June SOI might have for a super-Nino's chances. Looking ahead, these seven super Nino years had a July SOI range of -9 to -21. I don't yet see any strong indication on the models that July will be that low although it is still very early. The average of the last 12 days of CFS runs implies a July SOI near -3 fwiw.

Ooops. I just looked at the 2m for 12/23-2/24 for the new run and it does have near normal in the E US at 2m, which is consistent with H5. This run is warmer than the prior run, which had BN centered in the SE. The prior run in the SE had -2 F for DJF vs 0 F on the new run.

Can either of you or someone else explain why the H5 of this for DJF in the E US averages ~normal whereas the 2m is ~2.5-3 F AN? These maps don't look like they jibe.

I had a typo for CRW. Please see corrected post. The CDAS is cold biased and CRW seems to be warm biased. So, I mainly concentrate on daily changes rather than absolutes but favoring OISST for absolute. But even the OISST absolute will vary from the ERSST absolute for ONI related monthly and trimonthly with ERSST recently leaning cooler than OISST. So, there really is no one absolute to look at in my mind.

I respect Paul very much and thus his idea of still there being a likelihood of a super Nino peak should be taken seriously. However, I can't help but bring up how underwhelming the June warming of the 3.4 SSTa has been vs some earlier expectations, especially the BoA (May 31st to June 30th): OISST: +0.2 C CRW: +0.3 C CDAS: +0.2 C The last rapid warming was the last week of May/first week of June. So, in my own mind, the chances for a super peak are lower than they were 3 weeks ago. And if July turns out to be similarly sluggish, those chances would drop even more. The BoA has been quite far off and I already feel that its July +1.8 C 3.4 forecast will almost certainly fail pretty miserably.

1st day in 6 w/warming of avg in 3.4: CDAS: cooled 0.018 to 0.777 CRW: warmed 0.006 to 1.029 OISST: warmed 0.062 to 0.920 Average today +0.017 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.019, -0.025, -0.039, -0.022 Latest TAO 5 day average no change *Corrected for CRW typo!

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/sst_wind_5day_drupal.png

4th day in a row of 3.4 cooling: CDAS: cooled 0.038 to 0.795 CRW: cooled barely 0.003 to 1.023 OISST: cooled 0.015 to 0.858 Average today -0.019 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.025, -0.039, -0.022, 0 Latest TAO map is very slightly cooler

3rd day in a row of 3.4 cooling but slower: CDAS: cooled 0.047 to 0.833 CRW: cooled 0.024 to 1.026 OISST: cooled barely 0.004 to 0.873 Average today -0.025 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.039, -0.022, 0, +0.039 Latest TAO map is slightly cooler I predict BoA's +1.8 in 3.4 for July is going to bust way too warm.

Unless I'm missing something, this brand new CFSv2 is significantly weaker with the 3.4 peak than the prior run (see link below). The 3 month is peaking at only ~+1.7 vs the prior run's just over +2.0. More than half of the latest ensemble members (blue) are cooler than +0.9 in July as Terpeast alluded to:

Although there will be the typical fluctuations, I don't see any sign on the models of a sustained strongly -SOI for the next 10 days.

IF your thinking that there will likely not be any robust Nino SST warming over the next few weeks were to verify, the BoM's +1.8 in 3.4 for July will bust badly. The odds of a significant bust too warm continues to increase each day that sustained significant warming doesn't occur. The way things look today, it is going to be tough for OISST 3.4 to exceed +1.0 on July 1st. Assuming it starts July at +1.0, the math behind a +1.8 July would require an enormous warming to well up into the +2s by late month. I highly doubt as of now based on history that that kind of warming will happen. What do others think?

For the 2nd day in a row, all 3 cooled in 3.4: -CDAS: cooled 0.018 to 0.880 -CRW: cooled 0.034 to 1.050 -OISST: cooled 0.066 to 0.877 Average today of 0.039 cooler vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.022, 0, +0.039, and +0.050. For first time in weeks and possibly even months, OISST is cooler (albeit barely) than CDAS!

Rai.....ooops, I mean, ldub is back! Hurricane season ain't the same without him/her! A tradition unlike no other!

Today's update: all 3 cooled -CDAS cooled 0.018 to 0.898 -CRW cooled 0.030 to 1.084 -OISST cooled 0.017 to 0.943 Average of .022 cooler vs no change, +0.039, and +0.050 the prior 3 days.

For those who don't know, the warmest normals for 1+2 are in March, when they peak near 26.6 C. The coolest normals are in Sept, near 20.7 C. So, 1+2 normals have a wide range of 5.9 C. In contrast, Nino 4 has a much narrower range of normals between the peak of 28.9 C in May/June and the low of 28.0 in Feb. So, the range is a mere 0.9 C. Also, note that normals for Nino 4 are much warmer all year round vs 1+2 with the widest differential of near 8C around Sept and the lowest differential of 1.6 C in March. It is very rare for 1+2 actuals to be as warm or barely warmer than Nino 4.

@snowman19 Also, Nino 1+2 just came out at a new high for the year of +2.9 vs +2.7 on last week's release. Nino 3 is up to +1.4 from +1.2 while Nino 4 has risen to +0.7 from +0.6.

1. Good early find! Thank you. That Tweet is correct. Upon reading your post, I just confirmed it is up to +1.0 C. 2. Regarding the BoM June initialization of +0.9 in last week's update, it being at +1.0 in the latest OISST based weekly update doesn't necessarily mean June will end up at +1.0 when fully averaged out. Why? On OISST, June started out at only 0.73. Also, of the 25 June days to date, only 6 have been warmer than +1.0 while 19 have been cooler. I see that 10 of the 25 have been cooler than +0.9 vs 15 warmer than +0.9. I have 6/1-25 averaging in the low +0.9s per OISST. So, whether June ends up at +0.9 or at +1.0 on OISST is still unknown. Plus, the ONI is based on ERSST, not OISST, meaning more uncertainty where June as a whole will end up.

I'm educatedly guessing that the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly to be released tomorrow will be +1.0 C. Any other guesses?

The comparisons between CDAS and OISST have been weird lately. The prior 48 hours saw the fastest 48 hour CDAS anomaly warming since early March, 0.186. So, I thought that might be a sign of continued significant warming. But during that same 48 hours, OISST actually cooled 0.025 and has now cooled 3 days in a row! And, yes, the CDAS warmed modestly the last 24 hours. But it is now slowing to a crawl again at least for now.

Today's update doesn't yet give any hint that a persistent period of major warming is starting. For the BoM model's +1.8 for July to have a chance to even come close, rapid warming needs to get going very soon. For each day that doesn't happen, the chance drops notably: -CDAS: warmed 0.018 to 0.916 -CRW: warmed barely 0.001 to 1.114 -OISST: cooled 0.018 to 0.960 Average of no change vs warming of 0.039, 0.050, and 0.020 last 3 days

Today's update: mixed -CDAS warmed 0.098 to 0.898 -CRW warmed 0.041 to 1.113 -OISST cooled 0.022 to 0.977 Avg warming 0.039 vs three prior days' warmings of 0.050, 0.020, 0.012

For the first time that I can recall this year, the TAO 5 day avg exceeds +1.0 in a portion of the central 3.4.