GaWx

From a strictly SE cold/wintry wx potential perspective, I'd love to see that in winter as the combo of within the circle MJO (especially left side) and El Nino in especially January has made for some of the best opportunities!

Troughs near the E coast during hurricane season appear to be more favored during El Niño than non-El Nino seasons. Cape Verde/E MDR storms, which don't hit the US most of the time, hit less often during El Niño vs other seasons per looking at many decades of tracks. But if there are enough of them, one or more may slip in based on averages due to randomness. If they delay development, that ups those chances.

The 12Z CMC is by far its strongest run yet with an H to the E of Bermuda. This would make 2 storms with a July TCG, which would make it above average for all seasons. I expect a TWO later today and possibly as early as the one soon to be released to be upgraded from lemon to orange for the 7 day for this. If this month reaches two storms, it would tie it with 1979, 1887, and 1864 for the 2nd highest # of July storms during the 54 El Niño seasons since 1851 either present or coming later that season. Only 1997 would be more active with its three storms that formed in July.

^rainstorm trolling 101 has worked well for two decades (this is part of the playbook) but regardless IF it actually develops into a TD, I wouldn't argue against very good chance it would then get to H status with MH quite possible. An impressive 17 of 31 0Z GEFS members, by far the highest yet, had a cane.

Regarding the validity of Monday's amazing 101.1F on Manatee Bay: "That could be a new world record, besting an unofficial 99.7 degree temperature once reported in Kuwait. But meteorologists say the Florida gauge's location in dark water near land could make that difficult to determine. What to know about that hot sea surface temperature Was Monday’s 101.1 degree temperature in Manatee Bay a valid record measurement? That depends on the surrounding circumstances, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. The reading would need to be verified, and no one keeps official sea surface temperature records, Masters said. The Manatee Bay gauge is very close to land, south of Biscayne Bay, and measures the water temperature at a depth of 5 feet. Since the Manatee Bay buoy is near land, the water temperature could have been heated up by floating plants and other debris, he said. Without photos documenting clear water there Monday, 'it will be difficult to verify the 101.1 degree record as valid.' Given the gauge's location near land and the Kuwait measurement in open water, Masters said the two really shouldn't be compared." https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/07/25/water-temperatures-in-florida/70463489007/ Over the last couple of days, the SST has moved over 3F within just one hour several times, which obviously isn't normal. Between 5 and 6AM yesterday (before sunrise), it rose nearly 3F from 91.6 to 94.5! How can that be and it be a station for valid SSTs? The sun doesn't even rise til 6:45AM! Perhaps this was related to an incoming low tide? Low tide was at ~8:30AM. Also, note the 10+ degree range within the same day on the days surrounding the 101.1 due to very shallow water! There's nothing normal about this station as regards tracking SSTs. And now I just read above that they had 102 in 2017. Note that the highest yesterday was "only" in the middle 90s thanks to increased shower activity. Edit: The rain down there this morning is the most widespread I can recall in weeks. This has helped bring the Manatee Bay SST down to 86.9F at 10AM vs 94.5F at 10AM yesterday:

More on the validity of yesterday's amazing 101.1F on Manatee Bay: "That could be a new world record, besting an unofficial 99.7 degree temperature once reported in Kuwait. But meteorologists say the Florida gauge's location in dark water near land could make that difficult to determine. What to know about that hot sea surface temperature Was Monday’s 101.1 degree temperature in Manatee Bay a valid record measurement? That depends on the surrounding circumstances, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. The reading would need to be verified, and no one keeps official sea surface temperature records, Masters said. The Manatee Bay gauge is very close to land, south of Biscayne Bay, and measures the water temperature at a depth of 5 feet. Since the Manatee Bay buoy is near land, the water temperature could have been heated up by floating plants and other debris, he said. Without photos documenting clear water there Monday, 'it will be difficult to verify the 101.1 degree record as valid.' Given the gauge's location near land and the Kuwait measurement in open water, Masters said the two really shouldn't be compared." https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/07/25/water-temperatures-in-florida/70463489007/ Over the last couple of days, the SST has moved over 3F within just one hour several times. That's not normal. Between 5 and 6AM yesterday (before sunrise), it rose nearly 3F from 91.6 to 94.5! How can that be? The sun doesn't even rise til 6:45AM! Perhaps this was related to an incoming low tide? Low tide was at ~8:30AM. The rain in that area this morning is the most widespread I've noticed in several weeks and has helped to drop the 10AM SST to 86.9F vs 94.5F at 10AM yesterday:

After yesterday's Manatee Bay buoy SST high of an amazing 101.1 at 6PM, today thanks to showers at times and shallow water was 7.1 cooler at 93.0 exactly 24 hours later. This illustrates my concern about whether yesterday's 101.1 SST should be made the new official world's highest SST:

We have a new lemon in the far E MDR. The most likely scenario should it even become a TC would be for a recurve well east of the US E coast, but that's far from certain this far out: 3. Eastern Atlantic: A tropical wave is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible later this week and into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Pasch

Although not necessarily having such a steep plunge as CFS has, note that the JMA, Euro, UKMET, and Meteo-France also all have Nino 1+2 peaking between now and August followed by a notable drop. I can't find the BoM 1+2 prediction.

The following graphic showing the very wide daily SST range (due to shallowness) illustrates well my concern about whether or not the 101.1F recorded yesterday at Manatee Bay buoy should count as the new world hot SST record vs the existing 99.7F record set in the deeper middle of Kuwait Bay as per the link in the post above this. Note the last two days having a 10+ SST range. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday. Any opinions?

My concern is about the depth required to be considered for the world record. The prior record was 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay "recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay" per this: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/ So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by a range of 10.1F from a 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters.

The JMA is obviously doing much better than the BOM. But I was curious if a recent bias warm or cool is being suggested. It looks to me that there's been a modest net cool bias so far in 2023: -Jan run: JFM -0.52; FMA -0.22; MAM 0.04; AMJ 0.27; MJJ 0.49 -Feb run: FMA -0.23; MAM 0.04; AMJ 0.26; MJJ 0.45; JJA 0.66 -Mar run: MAM 0.13; AMJ 0.37; MJJ: 0.58; JJA 0.81; JAS 1.06 -Apr run: AMJ 0.35; MJJ 0.55; JJA 0.77; JAS 1.02; ASO 1.28 -May run: MJJ 0.74; JJA 1.00; JAS 1.28; ASO 1.61; SON 1.80 -Jun run: JJA 1.00; JAS 1.22; ASO 1.46; SON 1.67; OND 1.87 - Jul run: JAS 1.23; ASO 1.47; SON 1.67; OND 1.76; NDJ 1.75 -Actual ONI: JFM -0.43; FMA -0.14; MAM 0.16; AMJ 0.47 MJJ ~0.75-0.8; JJ ~0.90-0.95 Analysis: 1) JFM forecast made in Jan missed by -0.09 2) FMA forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by -0.08 to -0.09 3) MAM forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by -0.12; MAM forecast made in Mar missed by -0.03 4) AMJ forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by ~-0.20; those made in Mar/Apr missed by -0.10 to -0.12 5) MJJ forecasts made in Jan/Feb missed by ~-0.30; those made in Mar/Apr missed by ~-0.20; the one made in May was only barely too cool 6) JJA forecasts have warmed from 0.66 in Feb to ~0.80 in Mar/Apr to 1.00 in May/June. I think JJA will end up 1.10+. 7) JAS forecasts have warmed from ~1.04 in Mar/Apr to ~1.25 in May/June/July 8) ASO forecasts warmed from 1.28 in Apr to 1.61 in May but it did cool back some to ~1.46 in June/Jul 9) SON forecasts actually cooled from 1.80 in May to 1.67 in Jun/Jul 10) OND forecasts actually cooled from 1.87 in June to 1.76 in July. --------- Based on the above, I'm leaning a little bit based on the JMA toward a peak that is ~0.1 warmer than the 1.76 of the latest JMA forecast for OND based on a perceived slight cool bias of the JMA.

Yeah, upper 90s SSTs are amazingly impressive even for very shallow at the SST high of the day! I do wish I had followed Johnson buoy in past years so I'd have a better perspective on this month's SSTs vs past summers. I wonder if there are any easily obtainable records of hourly SSTs from other years. Apparently Murray Key and Johnson Key are only 4 miles apart. Based on that along with Johnson hitting 98.4, I feel that the 99.3 at Murray Key is believable since it is within a degree.

The Johnson Key buoy SST rose from 98.2 at 5PM to 98.4 at 6PM. This is the hottest I've seen it since I started following it earlier this month. Based on other sunny days, 6PM is typically the hottest hourly of this very shallow (5 ft) water.

Regarding the SST the Johnson Key buoy's low this morning was 1.1 warmer than yesterday meaning 90.0 (8AM). Today's 3PM SST of 96.1 is 1.3 warmer than the 94.8 of 24 hours ago. There's potentially still another 3 hours of SST warming with full sunshine and no showers anywhere nearby. Thus, there's a good chance that yesterday's 97.2 SST high will be exceeded today. Edit: An hour later (4PM) the SST rose from 96.1 to 97.5 with potentially another two hours of warming. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jkyf1

Please comment on the possibility that AGW as well as increased CO2, itself, lead to increased crop sizes due to the possibility of : -longer growing seasons in existing crop areas due to warming -areas further north becoming more conducive to growing crops due to warming -increased CO2 being conducive to larger crops since CO2 leads to increased photosynthesis IF these things are true and we're already getting larger crops such as corn due to AGW and increased CO2, how much of that increased corn crop mentioned in the article is actually due to AGW and more CO2, themselves? If true, would that mean a negative feedback from AGW to actually slow the rate of GW? If so, is that negative feedback properly built into the climate model assumptions?

I think strong is most likely as I've thought for awhile. Also, I still have a small chance for super. However, I've still not eliminated the small chance for upper end moderate. For one thing, Sea of Peru is favoring a moderate peak SOND as was recently posted and discussed ITT: https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/document/file/4887781/Comunicado_Of_ENFEN N° 11-2023.pdf?v=1689986929 Secondly, the latest OHC having dropped from +1.35 in mid June to only near +0.9 in mid July gives me pause:

There's been a somewhat notable 11 straight day -SOI streak and this will very likely dip to the lowest tomorrow (7/25). I expect tomorrow will be well down into the -30s with as low as ~-40 possible. This will be the lowest daily SOI since 5/25/2023. After that, it appears there will be a pretty steep rise that may get it up to ~+10 on 7/30-31. July SOI as a whole looks to come in ~-3. Compared to the July SOI for the seven incoming super strong El Niño events since 1877, the -3 is weak: 1877: -10 1888: -16 1965: -21 1972: -17 1982: -18 1997: -9 2015: -14 *AVG: -15* OTOH, six of the 11 incoming strong El Niño July SOIs had either similarly weakly negative or even slightly positive: 1899: -5 1902: +1 1930: -4 1957: +1 1991: -2 2009: +2 So whereas a -3 SOI for July of 2023 doesn't at all support an incoming super Nino when considering the -15 average July SOI for the seven super events, the fact that 6 of the 11 incoming strong events were in the general vicinity of -3 (+2 to -5) for July tells me that the -3 for this month is not at all out of July climo range for an incoming strong. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

0Z GEFS for the AEW about to move offshore looks like the most active run yet with 10 Hs out of 31 members by my count!

The very shallow (5 ft) waters at the Johnson Key buoy in N FL Bay hit 97.2F today at 6PM, the first time the SST got back into the upper 90s since the week before last. It was very dry today. The AM SST low was 88.9F meaning at least an 8.3F spread today, which has been fairly typical there since I started checking it a few weeks ago. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jkyf1

Miami's high today of 98 was a record high. Since records started there in 1895 only one day has been hotter, 7/21/1942's 100! Meanwhile, Marathon's 96+ streak continues into today for day 17! There have been 18 total this month. The previous record going back to 1950 of the largest # of 96+ days in a year was the 11 days of 1987. Edit: Miami's mean so far today is 90. If the AM low of 82 holds up for today's low, the 90 mean would tie with 7/24/1983 for the hottest mean on record!

Miami's high today of 98 was a record high. Since records started there in 1895 only one day has been hotter, 7/21/1942's 100! Edit: Miami's mean so far today is 90. If the AM low of 82 holds up for today's low, the 90 mean would tie with 7/24/1983 for the hottest mean on record!

We're about to be pummeled here with strong thunderstorms moving toward the NE!

I don't think they don't want it. Rather, I think many of them are primarily hoping it isn't east based and/or super strong.

The CFS has given up on its many days earlier this month (the last time as recently as just four days ago) having a moderate MJO phase 5-6-7: