GaWx

If your definition of hyperactive is # of NS, you may have a point although having 3 through July 22nd is actually above avg vs the mean. So, 2024 may very well not reach a near record # of storms like 2005/20. However, in terms of ACE so far, it is a far different story due to Beryl. In 2020, despite having 7 NS by ~7/22, the first hurricane wasn’t til after July 23. More later when I get time.

RDU 11AM today: 92/74 RDU 11AM yesterday: 91/72

Yeah, just 3-4 months after most recent sunspot max midpoint prog of Oct 2024/solar flux midpoint prog of Sep 2024. I think this experimental product is updated ~monthly: https://testbed.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression-updated-prediction-experimental The current cycle started Dec 2019.

The current cycle (25) had initially been expected to max out ~July of 2025 at a max of only 115. However it has been much more active than expected. Thus, the predicted max date has been revised to be earlier. The earlier max goes hand in hand with the higher amplitude, since stronger cycles typically rise faster and peak sooner than weaker cycles. As the figure below shows the sunspot max is now predicted to be within the period July 2024 through Jan 2025, whose midpoint of Oct 2024 is 9 months earlier than the July 2025 initial max prediction. The F10.7cm radio flux max is now predicted to occur within the interval Jul-Nov 2024:

If anyone here is interested, I’m doing one more AmericanWx pool this year, the British Open pool. If so go to the PGA Tour thread and make your picks there. This time I’m asking for 7 picks (instead of 6 picks) in addition to you picking the final score to par of the tourney winner. Make sure that your 7 picks aren’t identical to anyone who picks earlier. All scoring rules will be the same as what was used for the US Open. Deadline is 11:59PM EDT Wed 7/17.

The next 3-4 days look brutal with regard to the HI. With the heavy rainfall that RDU received last week, it will be interesting to see whether or not RDU resumes being hotter than FAY and other nearby areas. It is a near certainty the entire area will be hot but will RDU resume sticking out now that the drought has lessened? So far today, it looks pretty uniform with RDU and nearby mainly 92-3 at noon and FAY up at 95.

This model and all of the models were obviously much too cold last year in the E US and they have had a warm bias overall for a good number of years. But with the typical La Niña, W Canada to the N Plains/Lakes are often cold and New England is often near normal. So, this CFS map isn’t that far off from that. Of course this is very much a fwiw since the CFS has essentially no forecast value, especially that far out. However, I’d bet on the solid warmth it is showing down here. Also, I’m leaning toward a dry winter for much of the E US. I enjoy winter more than any other season no matter what. It is great for being outdoors.

Here’s a new paper with a hypothesis that the sudden strong warming surge that appeared last year was caused by the large amount of water vapor reaching well up into the strat. from Hunga Tonga: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/07/09/hunga-tonga-volcano-impact-on-record-warming/ He says that this amount of water vapor increase that high up into the strat by a volcanic eruption was likely a 1000+ year event due to just the right combo of a submarine eruption located near that amount below sea level (150m down) and of this magnitude (VEI of 5+). He said, “We know that strong volcanic eruptions, capable of reaching the stratosphere, can have a very strong effect on the climate for a few years, and that this effect can be delayed by more than a year.” A key to possibly buying into the author’s hypothesis is to accept his reasoning for why it took over a year for the NH to warm from it. From his figure 13: Note that it took til very late 2022/early 2023 for the sudden significant increase in water vapor between 25 and 40 km up at 45N lat. “Because the Tonga eruption is unprecedented, there is much about its effects that we do not understand. But we do know that the planetary greenhouse effect is very sensitive to changes in stratospheric water vapor because, unlike the troposphere, the stratosphere is very dry and far from greenhouse saturation.” “As a group of scientists showed in 2010, the effect of changes in stratospheric water vapor is so important that the warming between 2000 and 2009 was reduced by 25% because it decreased by 10%. And after the Tonga eruption, it increased by 10% because of the 150 million tons of water released into the stratosphere, so we could have experienced much of the warming of an entire decade in a single year.” Thoughts from anyone? I saw many comments from @bdgwxin the comments section. There is some really good discussion in there, including with the author.

I’ve done it but not recently.

In a very general sense (with wide variations depending on the specific atmospheric setup) a tropical cyclone (TC) in the MDR will tend to travel to the right of a tropical disturbance that doesn’t become a TC. So, slowing development near the CV Islands tends to mean a further left/lower latitude track. Lower latitude in the MDR means lowered chance of a safe recurve vs if had been positioned at a higher lat. as a result of becoming a TC further east. Same idea for weaker TC (lower latitude/lower chance for safe recurve) vs stronger TC (higher latitude/higher chance for safe recurve).

A pop up here lead to some close-by CTG lightning strikes, including one which seemed like it may have been right on my property and lead to the power blinking. Rainfall light so far/ongoing.

I’d love to get a 4” event as 3-4” tend to be ~once a generation event down here. I haven’t even had a T of wintry precip since Jan of 2018, which is the longest wintry precip drought on record. This area had 3-4” (or the liquid equiv (LE) in a mixed bag of wintry precip) in 12/1989, 2/1973, 2/1968, and 2/1934. The heaviest, which were from LE of 0.75”-1.25”+, included significant IP and/or ZR and occurred in 1/2018, 1/1922, and 2/1914. 1/1922 and 2/1914 had severe ZR. So, since 1900, this area has gotten the LE of 3-4”+ storms seven times or once every 18 years. The LE of 1”+ of snow has occurred ~16-20 times since 1900 or once every ~7 years. So, even just 1” is a pretty big deal down here.

I haven't seen him mention 2014-5 in recent weeks. But prior to that when he was showing random Weather Bell versions of CFS for next winter, he was referring to 2014-5 among other winters because a good number of the Weather Bell CFS runs were literally showing a 2014-5 like solid +PDO due to a combo of a 1000 mile wide 4000 mile long solid area of BN SST anomalies from E of Japan to just N of Hawaii along with the warmest anomalies in practically the entire Pacific just off of Western North America. But the odd thing is that the Trop Tidbits versions, which I trust way more, never showed anything of the sort as they showed a continued strong -PDO. There appear to be problems with the WxBell algos related to their CFS maps. I don't think JB even realizes it as I doubt he looks at TT maps. I have posted about this several times.

1. JMA/Euro/BoM did pretty well with this July of 07 prediction. They (especially BoM) were actually too cool in JAS (BoM before last year actually didn’t have a warm bias) but were near perfect for ASO/SON. But instead of more cooling like actually occurred, they then started warming. Like I’ve mentioned before, the JMA is one I pay extra attention to due to overall pretty good results along with no strong bias. This was one of the better years for the Euro for La Niña but it had company. UKMET was way down in Lala land with its -2.4. MeteoFrance was its typical way too warm self with a mere -0.1. CFS was too cool in JAS, perfect in ASO, and then warmed way too soon. Kind of similar to JMA/Euro/BoM.

http://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1811085088320278564? A 604 dm peaking 500 mb Bermuda high is progged on all of the models for tomorrow evening. This not only is one of the strongest Bermuda highs at 500 mb on record based on records back to 1950. It is THE strongest on record! The record strongest is 600 dm. Bermuda itself is progged to peak at 601-2, which would beat its record of 600 dm. It’s amazing what the warmest oceans on record are causing. The strongest on record for the entire Atlantic is 603 (just offshore Casablanca, Morocco). So, this looks to be the strongest on record for the entire Atlantic! The strongest on record for entire globe is 605.6 in the NPAC S of the Aleutians.

As already posted, the most recent Euro autumn ONI warmed ~0.2 (from -0.3 to -0.1) while the BoM cooled ~0.3 (from +0.1 to -0.2). The UKMET cooled ~0.1 from ~-0.9 to ~-1.0. So, those three averaged ~0.1 cooler. Just as a reminder, the UKMET did great last year (about the best) But the new JMA (which also did well last year) and MeteoFrance runs cooled substantially JMA by ~0.3 and France by ~0.4: 1. JMA June run: SON ~-0.5 July run: SON ~-0.8 2. MeteoFrance: June run: SON ~+0.1 July run: SON ~-0.4 Summary of latest SON ONI forecasts (subtract ~0.5 to estimate RONI): Euro: warmed 0.2 to ~-0.1 (has a longterm warm bias/slightly too warm last year but warm bias stronger when non-Nino) BoM: cooled 0.3 to ~-0.2 (huge warm bias last year) MeteoFrance: cooled 0.5 to ~-0.4 (strong warm bias) JMA: cooled 0.3 to ~-0.8 (no known significant bias/did well last year) UKMET: cooled 0.1 to ~-1.0 (did best last year/no known significant bias) CFS: warmed 0.1 to ~-1.1 (overall limited accuracy; I think it has cool bias) So, with the significantly cooler JMA/MeteoFrance, I’m thinking the chances for a solid weak La Niña per ONI are increasing again (vs cold neutral). This also means the chances for a moderate La Niña per RONI are increasing again (vs weak).

Indeed: check out both the E US and the SW US on this map: over 75 locations in US with hottest summer 6/1 through present with probably about that many second hottest:

LV was 117 at 3PM PDT. They’re going to be very close to 119-120 again. What an amazing heatwave! Edit: Looks like 118 for the high. That makes 3 days hotter than the record high of 117 prior to 2024!

No, it is one winter after each of these since it is the winter following a high ACE season.

Good point. Regarding the bolded I don't know if this is related to a classic UHI effect. The hotter sunny summer afternoons are possibly due to surrounding gravel/concrete/building per Brad P. and/or the construction of a new runway per marsman's posts. Would these be classic UHI? I also wonder if the recent flash drought was affecting RDU more than FAY and other areas since drought, alone, typically results in hotter summer afternoons due to drier ground but not warmer lows.

That’s why I said this: *Caution advised due to small sample size as there’s possibility this was due to randomness*

La Niña after ACE 200+: 5 winters E US -1893-4: Dec and Jan NN; Feb BN NE, NN SE -1933-4: Dec BN NE, AN SE; Jan NN; Feb BN -1995-6: Dec, Jan, Feb BN -2005-6: Dec BN; Jan AN; Feb NN NE, BN SE -2017-8: Dec BN NE, NN SE; Jan BN; Feb AN By region: 1) NE: Dec BN 4 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 0 of 5 Jan BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Feb BN 3 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 1 of 5 2) SE: Dec BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Jan BN 2 of 5; NN 2 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Feb BN 3 of 5; NN 1 of 5; AN 1 of 5 Summary of results for these 5 winters NE: BN strongly prevailed in Dec and moderately prevailed in Feb; Jan all over map SE: BN moderately prevailed in Feb; DJ all over map *Caution advised due to small sample size as there’s possibility this was due to randomness. This is not at all a forecast for 2024-5 or any other Nina winter following 200+ ACE.*

2005 and 2020 both had 21 NS after July. 2024 is at 3 now. Even IF July had no more storms, having 21 more would make 24. Of course there could easily be one or more NS this month as 3 weeks is a near eternity. To illustrate better, here was a TWO from June 24th, which suggested no more NS in June vs the two that actually occurred: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch The first TWO even mentioning the AEW that lead to Beryl wasn’t til the one from 8 PM on June 25th and even that was only at 20% over the subsequent 7 days: A tropical wave centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend and into early next week while it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

I didn’t bring this up on my own. I earlier saw others (here and elsewhere) mentioning this, including a pro-met. This tweet from Brad Panovich says there’s a warm bias though much more during daytime than night: https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1809595420802261228?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet The problem appears to not be with the sensor for that would mean just as much too hot at night, too, along with when it is cloudy, windy, etc. Rather, it appears per Brad to be due to the surroundings: “This is not an ideal siting situation for KRDU. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's way too much gravel and concrete and a building too close to the ASOS. Compare KRDU versus KCLT ASOS, which is surrounded by vegetation and no buildings” From here: https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1809626846633320508?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1809626846633320508|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url= So, it appears Brad has made a case that should perhaps be considered. I don’t think this is intentional (conspiracy). Why would it be? But that doesn’t mean there isn’t an issue to consider that perhaps needs to be resolved. Being in GA, I would appreciate any objective fact based evidence one way or the other from the RDU area crowd. TIA!

CSU's updated analog seasons: 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020 Year/ASO ONI (using Eric Webb 1st 3 and NOAA RONI for 1995+): -1886/-0.8: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H, all in Gulf (one landfall barely missed as hit far NE MX that still lead to H winds S TX); 3 were in June! -1926/0.0: 3 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing S FL that still lead to H winds S FL); bad year FL/Gulf; 4th highest ACE -1933/-1.1: 4 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC/VA); bad year SE FL, S TX, NC/VA; highest ACE -1995/-0.7: 2 CONUS landfalling storms as H in FL; 5th highest ACE -2005/0.0: 5 CONUS landfalling storms as H (with another just missing NC that still lead to H winds NC); bad year Gulf/SFL; 2nd highest ACE -2010/-1.6: 0 CONUS landfalling storms as H -2020/-1.2: record tying 6 CONUS landfalling storms as H; bad year W/C Gulf So, the avg # of landfalling storms on the CONUS as a H for these 7 years was a very ominous 4. Clearly, the best hope for CONUS when considering these analogs for a tame rest of season is for something similar to 2010 with its 0 H landfalls and only 2 TS hits, one minimal. However, note that ASO RONI was way down at -1.6, the lowest ASO ONI/RONI on record. Very low ASO (mod to strong Nina) on avg have not been as bad for CONUS H hits as weaker Ninas. With the most likely ASO RONI having risen to weak to low end moderate Nina territory, it is unlikely as of now that Nina will be that strong. Also, Beryl hitting TX probably isn't a good sign. Thus, the case for 2010-like tracks for the rest of 2024 is kind of weak as of now though I'll still hope.