GaWx

Interestingly, they still haven't declared El Niño and still only have it as likely due to lack of atmospheric response so far: "El Niño AlertLA NIÑA ALERT WATCH INACTIVE WATCH ALERT EL NIÑO ENSO Outlook The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response."

Although it jumps around a lot and isn't at all reliable, especially this far out, it is fun to note that the new CANSIPS is calling for the coldest DJFM for a good portion of the SE since 2013-4. It has the SE US with about the coldest anomaly in the entire world then. With this being El Niño, that chance is enhanced and it probably has a lot to do with why the model shows it that chilly.

That's quite the warming from +1.61 ONI peak on the prior run! Having +2.0 in Sept would require steep warming throughout August. It is keeping its +1.5 Aug forecast. Is that doable? Only with steep warming throughout the month since ERSST is now only near +1.1. So, high +1 anomalies would be needed by late Aug. If that were to occur, then a +2.0 Sept would be likely. Aug will be the main test. I have some doubt that Aug will get to +1.5, but we'll see. I'm favoring Aug to be closer to the +1.3 to +1.4 range per ERSST.

I'd bring down the 96L TCG chances further down as I couldn't find a single 12Z global model supporting TCG as support has been lost. That includes the UKMET posted below. Of the hurricane models at 12Z, about all I could find supporting it is the TS shown tomorrow by HMON. 12Z UKMET: ROPICAL STORM 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 53.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.07.2023 0 22.5N 53.2W 1016 30 0000UTC 01.08.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands have become less organized since last night. However, the system is producing a small area of gale-force winds well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions still appear somewhat conducive for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop during the next couple of days while the system moves northwestward and then northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

97L won't become a TC per this, which says it has become extratropical due to merging with a cold front: AL, 97, 2023073112, , BEST, 0, 359N, 676W, 30, 1006, EX

In today's release, Nino 1+2 fell rather sharply from +3.5 in the prior one to +3.0. The daily OISST graph suggested today would show +3.0. That same graph is suggesting the sharp fall has ceased at least for now as the lowest day was six days ago at +2.9 and yesterday's was back up some to +3.0. Nino 3.4 rose as expected per the OISST graph from +1.1 to +1.2. Regions 3 (+1.7) and 4 (+0.8) were not surprisingly unchanged.

The new BoM for August was just released at +1.7, a reduction from the prior run's +1.9. August forecast from prior runs: July 15th: +1.9 July 1st: +2.0 June 17th: +2.6 June 3rd: +2.4 Further out, the run was about the same with a +2.9 peak in Dec and Jan. I'm very confident that it will give up on those as we get closer. I think even @snowman19 would agree. The persistent pattern for each run is that it gives in for the first month or two but leaves the later months alone. Then as those later months get close, it starts giving in on those. Rinse and repeat.

Yeah, CRW usually runs warmer. Today it was ~0.1 warmer. OISST was only +1.162. I expect tomorrow's weekly OISST 3.4 release to be +1.2. In other news, the OHC has dropped even slightly more. Last week's report had it down to ~+0.85 from a high in mid June near +1.30-5. The report to be issued tomorrow is expected to show it at only ~+0.80. It may be nearing a bottom, but it has quite a ways to get back to the June high though there's still plenty of time for that to happen:

Don't fall for this: "Plymouth Rock has not remained in its original location over the centuries, and sea level rise has been well-documented in the surrounding region, experts say. In addition, the photo also does not take account of regular tidal fluctuations." Tidal fluctuations are near 10 feet! That pic from whenever it was taken could be at a low tide. https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-plymouth-rock-sea-level-924629756946

After a steep average daily area loss late June through the first half of July, the last two weeks overall have had a significantly lower average daily loss. Yesterday (7/29) actually had a gain of 33k sq km (to 4.52 million sq km), the first in quite awhile. Although a summer daily gain isn't common, there usually have been several per summer even during big loss years like 2020, 2019, 2017, 2016, and 2012 per the graphs.

Before the new forecasts come out, I'd like to look at the latest 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts issued through 7/30 for August to see how they end up doing: BoM: +1.9 Meteo-France: +1.9 Euro: +1.5 CANSIPS: +1.5 UKMET: +1.4 CFS: +1.3 JMA: +1.3 Any predictions for which of these seven will end up closest to the August ERSST? June was +0.81 and July is likely going to end up +1.0 to +1.1. Current ERSST is probably near +1.1 although daily and weekly ERSSTs technically aren't released.

There's a very slight chance (~10%?) that 96L and 97L will both become TDs by tomorrow evening and also subsequently get named. If so, July 2023 would tie July 1997 at three for the most named storms on record with TCG in July in El Niño going back to the last 50+ El Niño seasons. And arguably, the 12Z Euro at least gets close to the two TDs by tomorrow evening.

I'd argue based on what I've read from pro mets that the West Pacific/Maritime Continent (MC) has been the dominant region regarding "forcing" for the last five years. These same mets have said that the dominance of the SE ridge in winter has been largely because of this. This MC warmth has lead to a larger than normal % of the time for the MJO to be in the MC phases 4 and 5, a higher than average amplitude in those phases, and MC MJOlike forcing often occurring even when the official MJO wasn't actually in 4 or 5. So, if what you're suggesting were to actually verify and persist through the upcoming winter, I'd look for it to lead to a colder winter in much of the E US in 2023-4 vs recent winters and possibly significantly colder.

There have been at a minimum these two broken clocks modelwise: 1. BoA in 3.4 has been way too warm this summer, especially in July when it had many runs of upper +1s as I posted about. 2. CFS has been equally bad with 1+2 considering these way too cool predictions for it since at least March 19th: Mar 19: stays below +1.75 Apr 11: stays below +2.5 May 2: stays below +2.6 June 5: stays below +2.25 June 21: stays below +2.7 Fool me many times, shame on me as regards BoA 3.4. That's been emphasized many times. But fool me many times shame on me regarding the CFS 1+2, too. So, although even much better models such as the Euro all agree that 1+2 either has already maxed or will by Sept at the latest, none have the cliff-dive of the recent CFS, which drops it to a mere +1.2 in November. The Euro, Meteo-France, JMA, and UK all keep Nov from +1.75 to +2.8. Thus, I'd say that the CFS' idea of a cliff-dive in 1+2 is likely way overdone. I think ~+2+ is more realistic. Aside: Also, keep in mind that the CFS was the worst in predicting a moderate MJO phase 5 for now on many runs until 10 days ago.

It is now looking likely that July of 2023 will join 1997 to make history for an already moderate El Niño. Currently, the only El Nino with a +1.0+ JJA ONI having 2+ July storms (based on time of TCG) on record is 1997, which had three. The 0Z Euro was the strongest run yet with the mid-MDR disturbance and now the 6Z Euro is even stronger as of the end of its run at hour 90. That could easily result in a TD by July 31st that subsequently gives us Emily. If that's not enough, there's a slight chance that when the disturbance now just offshore NE FL recurves back offshore the E coast that it becomes a TC (as @jconsordiscussed) before July is finished though that could be after 7/31 should it occur.

I just put this in the main tropical wx thread (this will lead to plentiful rainfall over a portion of the SE US): There is a tight little circulation center (easily seen on radar) just offshore from Amelia Island where SSTs are ~85F moving NNW toward the lower GA coast, but it is more mid level than low level from what I've read. One NWS discussion mentioned that this is in association with the TUTT (see below). Surface pressures are still pretty high (1017 mb+) and surface winds are light. The highest wind I could find in gusts is 16 knots and that is at an offshore buoy. From Jacksonville NWS office earlier this morning: AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UP THE NE FL COAST AND INTO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. -------------- From Melbourne ~40 minutes ago: ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2023 IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED OVERHEAD YESTERDAY, DEEP S/SE FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. IN FACT, THAT FEATURE HAS ACTUALLY CLOSED OFF INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE.

There is a tight little circulation center (easily seen on radar) just offshore from Amelia Island where SSTs are ~85F moving NNW toward the lower GA coast, but it is more mid level than low level from what I've read. One NWS discussion mentioned that this is in association with the TUTT (see below). Surface pressures are still pretty high (1017 mb+) and surface winds are light. The highest wind I could find in gusts is 16 knots and that is at an offshore buoy. From Jacksonville NWS office earlier this morning: AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UP THE NE FL COAST AND INTO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA. -------------- From Melbourne ~40 minutes ago: ISSUED AT 924 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2023 IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED OVERHEAD YESTERDAY, DEEP S/SE FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING. IN FACT, THAT FEATURE HAS ACTUALLY CLOSED OFF INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE.

SST anomalies compared to July 1st in Nino 3.4: -OISST is 0.249C warmer -CRW is 0.192C warmer -CDAS is 0.134C warmer These are quite underwhelming to me when considering the strong acceleration of warming forecasted by the BoM model for July. Based on OISST, it appears July as a whole will end up near 1.1. The implication of a 1.1 July OISST would be a July ERSST (input for ONI calculation) to be most likely in the 1.0 to 1.1 range. Compare these numbers to the prior BoM runs July predictions: Run/July prediction: 2/11/23: 1.3 2/25/23: 1.4 3/11/23: 1.7 3/25/23: 1.9 4/8/23: 1.4 4/22/23: 1.8 5/6/23: 1.8 5/20/23: 1.7 6/3/23: 1.7 6/17/23: 1.8 7/1/23: 1.5 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/index.shtml#region=NINO34

Indeed. More on the Marathon Bay buoy's 101.1F from the link below: The record for the Manatee Bay site is 102 degrees. It was set on Aug. 15, 2017. Going further back, Zierden said the site recorded a temperature of 100 degrees in 2010. "Keep in mind that the observations in Manatee Bay are in shallow water in a closed-off cove with dark seagrass on the bottom," Zierden said. "I would not consider them a "sea surface temperature," as that implies open ocean." https://www.news-press.com/story/weather/2023/07/26/record-water-temperatures-in-florida-not-unprecedented-manatee-bay-climate-center-keys-everglades/70468485007/

Based purely on objective statistics back to the late 1800s for the year following +1.5+ ONI peak El Niños, it is a near coin flip as to whether La Niña will immediately follow. Out of 18, 8 had that occur. However, 6 of the last 7 (since 1972-3) were immediately followed by La Niña. I don't know whether or not a sample size of the most recent 7 cases is large enough to favor La Niña to follow as opposed to keeping it near a coin flip. Note that only 2 of 11 from 1877-8 through 1965-6 were followed by La Niña with 6 in a row from 1918-9 through 1965-6 not. *Corrected

The water hit an amazing 101.1F for a high late Monday afternoon at the Manatee Bay buoy near Miami! This occurred after almost wall to wall sunshine and little rainfall prevailed for July up to that point. However, a weak surface trough subsequently brought the most rainfall and least sunshine in weeks yesterday to those shallow waters resulting in a much cooler SST low of 84.0F this morning: More on Manatee Bay SSTs from the link below: The record for the Manatee Bay site is 102 degrees. It was set on Aug. 15, 2017. Going further back, Zierden said the site recorded a temperature of 100 degrees in 2010. "Keep in mind that the observations in Manatee Bay are in shallow water in a closed-off cove with dark seagrass on the bottom," Zierden said. "I would not consider them a "sea surface temperature," as that implies open ocean." https://www.news-press.com/story/weather/2023/07/26/record-water-temperatures-in-florida-not-unprecedented-manatee-bay-climate-center-keys-everglades/70468485007/ ------------------ OTOH the much more stable SST from the Key West buoy, which is on deeper water, is still near a very warm 90 and is indicative of the overall marine heatwave in the area:

Check out how much cooling of the extreme warmth of the SSTs shown by the buoys in/near shallow FL Bay occurred between late Monday afternoon's extreme highs and this morning's lows just from a weak surface trough causing a significant increase in showers (the most rain in weeks) and much less sunshine (these are SSTs (F), not air temperatures): Manatee Bay: from 101 to 84 Johnson Key: from 98 to 79 Murray Key: from 99 to 81 In contrast the Key West buoy, which is in deeper waters and thus has a much lower intraday range that is often only ~1F, cooled much less (from 92.3 to 89.6) and is still very warm:

Look how much cooling of the extreme warmth of the SSTs shown by the buoys in/near shallow FL Bay occurred between late Monday afternoon's highs and this morning's lows just from a weak surface trough causing a significant increase in showers (the most rain in weeks) and much less sunshine (these are SSTs (F), not air temperatures): Manatee Bay: from 101 to 84 Johnson Key: from 98 to 79 Murray Key: from 99 to 81 In contrast the Key West buoy, which is in deeper waters and thus has a much lower intraday range that is often only ~1F, cooled much less (from 92.3 to 89.6) and is still very warm:

The buoys in shallow water near S FL that had been having daily highest SSTs in the amazing upper 90s to 101.1F and making media headlines recently have all plunged within just two days time. They're only in the 84-88F range as of 4PM today thanks to more rainfall and less sunshine. That's all it took after going several weeks with little rain and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. This illustrates well why these shallow water buoy SSTs are invalid for world record keeping purposes against, for example, the 99.7 recorded in much deeper waters in the middle of the Kuwait Bay. When you have Dr. Masters agreeing, you can probably take it to the bank that they're invalid. Their variations of ~14-15F occurring just within the last 48 hours show that their SSTs are acting more like coastal land station air temperatures than SSTs: Manatee Bay (range 86-101F): Johnson Key (range 84-98): Murray Key (range 84-99): In stark contrast, the deeper water at the Key West buoy has cooled due to the same rainfall/less sunshine only ~1.5F. That along with daily ranges that have typically been no more than ~2F tells me that the Key West buoy, unlike the other three, likely has valid SSTs for world recordkeeping purposes. The hottest there so far this month has been 92.7F. Although not nearly as hot as those three shallow buoys, it is still quite hot for Key West and indicative of the marine heatwave in the area. The lowest there so far this month has been 88.7. So, the range so far this month at Key West has been only 4.0F. Compare that to the range of ~14-15F just for the last two days at those shallow buoys! Key West (range 90.5-92.3):