GaWx

I saw no more direct US hits on the 0Z EPS after hour 240. So, the hit % for the US went down from 24% on yesterday's 12Z to 14% on today's 0Z. ME remains at the highest risk of any US state per the EPS: Summary of recent EPS runs' US landfalls: 9/8 0Z: 7 (14%) 9/15-17 (6 ME, 1 NY) 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 9/6 12Z: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 9/6 0Z: 5 (10%) 9/5 12Z: 2 (4%) 9/5 0Z: 4 (8%) 9/4 12Z: 1 (2%) 9/4 0Z: 2 (4%)

This shows the UKMET having had the smallest mean absolute error for both 24 and 48 hours out and the Euro being second best for both timeframes.

0Z EPS through 240: not as many hits on US as 12Z run but there still were 7: 6 on ME and 1 on NY. There may not be any more US hits after 240. Nova Scotia gets clobbered even more than on the 12Z. Newfoundland also gets some direct hits in addition to leftovers from some of the Nova Scotia hits.

Ironically, the 0Z UKMET initialized Lee way down at 941 mb, which is much lower than the other major models! But just 12 hours later on the run, the SLP rises way up to 967! This run is pretty similar to the 12Z run with a recurve near 70W: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 51.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 08.09.2023 0 17.1N 51.8W 941 110 1200UTC 08.09.2023 12 17.9N 53.9W 967 77 0000UTC 09.09.2023 24 19.2N 55.7W 969 81 1200UTC 09.09.2023 36 20.0N 57.7W 973 68 0000UTC 10.09.2023 48 20.8N 59.2W 970 65 1200UTC 10.09.2023 60 21.5N 60.8W 965 68 0000UTC 11.09.2023 72 22.3N 62.2W 961 74 1200UTC 11.09.2023 84 23.0N 64.0W 958 78 0000UTC 12.09.2023 96 23.6N 65.6W 952 84 1200UTC 12.09.2023 108 24.1N 67.3W 950 87 0000UTC 13.09.2023 120 24.3N 68.5W 944 87 1200UTC 13.09.2023 132 24.8N 69.5W 949 83 0000UTC 14.09.2023 144 25.9N 69.9W 944 94 1200UTC 14.09.2023 156 27.8N 70.3W 947 84 0000UTC 15.09.2023 168 29.7N 70.1W 944

It is the "lots to resolve" that makes for the most interesting forecast discussions! No landfall through 240 with Lee likely not even hitting Canada afterward.

At 168 of the 0Z Euro, Margot is 200 miles W of its 12Z 180 position while Lee is 200 miles S of its 12Z 180 location.

0Z CMC landfall Eastport, ME, on 9/16. Eastport has the largest tidal range of any place on the E coast by the way. On 9/16, the high tide is near 19 feet.

As earlier posted regarding the 12Z EPS through 240 excluding the operational, I counted 9 hitting the US: 5 ME, 3 MA, and 1 NY. After 240, I count 2 ME and 1 NJ. So, grand total for 12Z EPS is 12 (24%) meaning the most of any run yet with 7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, and 1 NJ with hit dates 9/15-19. Summary of recent EPS runs' US hits: 9/7 12Z: 12 (24%) 9/15-19 (7 ME, 3 MA, 1 NY, 1 NJ) 9/7 0Z: 10 (20%) 9/15-18 (5 ME, 5 MA) 12Z 9/6: 3 (6%) 9/15-18 (2 ME, 1 MA) 0Z 9/6: 5 (10%) 12Z 9/5: 2 (4%) 0Z 9/5: 4 (8%) 12Z 9/4: 1 (2%) 0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

On Tuesday, you posted a link to Mario Ramirez showing the new Euro 3.4 ens members: https://twitter.com/Mario___Ramirez/status/1699126469518074024/photo/1 Based on eyeballing, Dec to me looks slightly warmer than Jan. Dec looks to me like it is ~2.30 while Nov and Jan look more like 2.25. So, I'm estimating based on this that the new Euro is at most 2.27ish for ONI peak. Last month's Euro was at 2.40. So, I'm thinking the Euro cooled. Now looking at Ben Noll's graph, I see that he has Jan as the warmest and up near 2.35 though it isn't as warm as the 2.5 that you mentioned. Also, Ben shows Dec and Feb to be ~same. But if you look at Mario's post, Feb is clearly cooler than Dec. Something seems to be a bit off. Maybe they're using different climo for baseline??

The 12Z JMA (an inferior model for the tropics) hit E ME just after hour 210 (early 9/16) while still having SLP in the 950s. (The prior 12Z hit just E in New Brunswick on 9/16.) I'm mentioning it because it agrees with the 12Z Euro on location although it is ~9 hours faster.

Regarding the 12Z EPS, I count a total of ~9 US hits excluding operational through 240 hours with ~5 hitting ME (excluding operational), ~3 hitting MA, and 1 hitting NY. Plus a couple more probably will hit on this run after 240. So, ~18%+ US hits on the 12Z EPS not including the operational, which means likely at least on par with the 20% of the previously most active 0Z of today. Or ~20%+ already if including operational. The point is that the significant increase in hits of the last run was maintained on this new run (12Z).

If the 12Z Euro were to happen to verify closely, the location of the highest E coast tidal range, Eastport, ME, would be very heavily affected by surge. So, the timing of any potential landfall near there in relation to high and low tide would make a larger difference there than at other locations on the US E coast. On Sept 16 for example, the predicted high tides are near 19 feet (just after midnight and noon): https://www.usharbors.com/harbor/maine/eastport-me/tides/

Indeed, E ME 966 mb on 9/16 at 18Z

12Z Euro 144 a whopping 41 mb weaker (960) than 0Z 156 (919) and barely ESE of the 0Z

So, you're going likely only a moderate RONI peak?

So, the JMA had an ONI peak drop from 2.22 in last month's prog to ~2.05 in this new one. The Euro similarly dropped from 2.40 to ~2.25. The somewhat inferior CFS dropped even more sharply, from 2.11 to ~1.76. So, all three of these have dropped since last month (~0.15 to ~0.35). As a result, I'm lowering my ONI peak prediction from 2.2 to 2.1 and will continue to adjust as per what the model and other data shows. Of course, the RONI peak would be lower, probably near +1.6 to +1.7.

As mentioned, the 0Z EPS had 6 members with US hits (4 ME and 2 MA) just through 240, which was already the largest # of hits of any complete EPS run yet, and with the post 240 portion still not then out. The post 240 portion showed another 4 hits (3 MA and 1 ME meaning a total of 5 ME and 5 MA) for a full 0Z EPS total of 10 (20%), which doubles the previous run highest hit total of 5 (10%) that was from the run 24 hours earlier. Summary of EPS (0Z and 12Z) runs' CONUS hits: 0Z 9/7: 10 (20%) (9/15-18) (5 ME, 5 MA) 12Z 9/6: 3 (6%) (ME 9/15 & 9/17, MA 9/18) 0Z 9/6: 5 (10%) 12Z 9/5: 2 (4%) 0Z 9/5: 4 (8%) 12Z 9/4: 1 (2%) 0Z 9/4: 2 (4%)

The 0Z EPS' 6 (12%) CONUS hits is the highest yet, beating the 5 hits by the 0Z of 24 hours ago and that was for that full 15 day run. Four hit ME and two hit MA. And that's only through 240 as it appears a couple more will likely hit after 240. This is more evidence that the NE is not safe even though I still consider it a low chance. Nova Scotia and the area near Bermuda appear to get hit the hardest.

0Z Euro 240 slams into W Nova Scotia.

0Z Euro 180 is 250 miles NNW of the 12Z run and even a little N of the 0Z of yesterday.

0Z UKMET: stronger but similar track to 12Z run recurving near 70W. Initialized pretty well on position. HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 47.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 07.09.2023 0 15.0N 47.0W 998 52 1200UTC 07.09.2023 12 15.9N 49.4W 994 48 0000UTC 08.09.2023 24 16.7N 51.8W 993 50 1200UTC 08.09.2023 36 17.5N 54.2W 993 56 0000UTC 09.09.2023 48 18.3N 56.3W 993 59 1200UTC 09.09.2023 60 19.2N 58.4W 994 57 0000UTC 10.09.2023 72 20.0N 60.0W 991 54 1200UTC 10.09.2023 84 20.9N 61.7W 989 57 0000UTC 11.09.2023 96 21.6N 63.0W 985 53 1200UTC 11.09.2023 108 22.3N 64.7W 979 51 0000UTC 12.09.2023 120 23.1N 66.1W 975 59 1200UTC 12.09.2023 132 23.6N 67.5W 973 63 0000UTC 13.09.2023 144 24.2N 68.6W 963 73 1200UTC 13.09.2023 156 24.8N 69.2W 957 84 0000UTC 14.09.2023 168 26.3N 69.9W 951 82

18Z Euro 72 is ~75 miles NE of the 12Z at 78

There's still a cold wake left by Franklin near and just W of Bermuda. Should it track there, hopefully this wake would weaken Lee some.

Probably. Is there a chance for Margot to move, say, WNW, and pump heights?