Windspeed

Pushing 7.8 ADT! 165 kt monster...

Halong's development and structure very reminiscent of Mikael in the GOM last year. Probably SS Cat 5 right now. ADT up to 7.3 / 150 kts now. This beast is cranking...

Well the micro-vortex is the tiny eye we observed with Hagibis. Really this phenomenon is no different than your average microcane or small hurricane eyewall in general, it just takes a very low shear environment + very high maximum potential intensity w/ high TCHP to get something like a Hagibis or Wilma; and even still, the aformentioned type of micro-vortex may still not occur. Otherwise, outer banding influences in the formative stages usually starves off or dissipates a smaller vortex before MPI can be achieved. Usually the intensification phase of the entire tropical cyclone's broader core cuts off or diverts outer low level convergence rather quickly away from a tiny interior vortex, if it happens to exist, while a larger eye or concentric band takes over. This is usually prior to the system even becoming a hurricane or typhoon. It's just a really chaotic and unpredictable process, at least until the main eyeband or core has consolidated, to know how large or small the dominate vort will be. In short, there really isn't a way to model the chaotic nature of such a phenomenon. It is rather part luck on how small and aligned an MCS-induced mid-level vort is in conjunction to the low level vort underneath. If that can resolve and the MPI is sky high, a small vort can become dominant and remain that way through rapid intensification all the way into the sub-900s hPa. But it's really a crapshoot to know the probability of such occurring. Sometimes the original vort max is just larger and remains that way.

Radar confirms that Super Typhoon Hagibis did not actually make landfall on Anatahan Island. The southern periphery of the island got scraped by the core, but the worst conditions of the inner boundary of the eyewall missed just offshore. Again, good example how satellite imagery can be deceiving as it looked like a direct hit in the posts above. Angle of sensor, parallax and lat/long postion of eye is important.

Rare is a better term. I mentioned some others above: Pam, Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert and Allen all had similar structures. There have been a number of others that developed a super intense >5nm micro-vortex eyewall within a much larger banded concentric envelope. Still, it's not something we see with regards to such extreme sub 890 hpa estimated intensities on a yearly basis. Think perhaps once every 5-10 years globally within the satellite era.

Incredible inner micro-vortex....

Yes, it was inhabited prior to volcanic unrest. The caldera has been active in recent times with a VEI-4 eruption in 2003. Anatahan is a desolate place that nobody has returned to. I should also say that based on angle of satellite and parallax, it may look like a landfall, but we'll need to confirm it with the radar beam out of the N. Marianas. The base of the tiny 3nm wide vortex may actually be missing south of Anatahan though it looks like a direct hit on the island. Edit: Sorry for edits, Tapatalk is being annoying and lagging posts atm.

Well-formed small vortex in the right place at the right time. Nearly all requirements for RI and MPI met at once. Strong banding around such a small vortex will eventually halt this round but there will likely be reintensification after ERC with a larger eye. Having said that, based on sat estimates, peak intensity has been achieved. At this time there isn't much off structurally in comparison to Patricia or Wilma. The eye is doing a trochoidal wobble that may slingshot it right over the island -- a possible sub 900 hPa hit of you've ever seen one.

McLean's Town, one of the communities in eastern Grand Bahama. It's pretty much what you would expect.

That's a mean for projected return. It doesn't suggest we are due in another 10-20 years, only that per climatological average, a sub-900 mb landfall occurs within a spread of 102 years. There could be more or less years, or even 300 years between such events. I would need to read the paper in more detail on how they came up with those means. The 265-yr mean seems much too large to me however these are modeled datasets from projections and not historical observations since we do not have measurements prior to the 1800s. There are only a few estimated examples of such strong tempests prior to that due to captain logs or governing records.

Yeah I am infuriated. What does it even mean to be an American anymore with shit like this happening?

This is bloody disgraceful.... So much for being a beacon of light.

The topography of the Shizuoka prefecture already doing a number on Faxai's northern circulation. There is plenty of topography there besides just the majestic Mt. Fuji. The eye has become cloudfilled though radar still shows a robust northern eyewall. This will be the strongest typhoon in recent memory for the port of Yokohama and the harbour there based on current intensity, but hopefully the surge won't be too severe in Sagami Bay and Tokyo Bay due to Faxai's small core.

Kozushima getting hit pretty hard:

Hey Ryan, I was just about to post that GMI pass but I see you tweeted it.

Even when you prove by Trump's very own actions and statements how irresponsible and dangerous he is, some people go with this ridiculous "it's just weather" bullshit or any other lame excuse for the hundreds of other examples of inappropriate actions/behavior. Yeah, you can go **** right off with all of that. I'm done dealing with you. There is no overcoming this lemming mentality and cult insanity anymore with a narcissist megalomaniac. I've thrown in the towel. I pray for the day politics is boring again and matters of public safety are not denigrated into spectacle, misinformation and outright lies. I really am tired of this timeline. Perhaps some day we'll have a government again that isn't undermined all the way to the top with heads of the executive cabinet and congressional branches who actually do their damn jobs. For now it is a three-ring sideshow circus. Actually I shouldn't disrespect circus performers. They actually have value / worth and a place in our society. Edit: Well I guess I'm no longer refraining. I apologize for the extreme rant. I've said my peace and I am done with it. Try to get back to a positive mentality and move on. What else you going to do in these times?

Scroll up. He is fine and has been busy describing what he witnessed to news organizations.

I can assure you that the overwhelming majority of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration does NOT support that ridiculous statement by that anonymous puppet, whomever, who was clearly dancing at the strings of their boss. I'm not even going to begin to show my disgust about the situation as I have refrained up until this point. Keep in mind there still is not a formal director of NOAA at this point, as Trump's really bad nomination has yet to be confirmed. Hard to imagine even the interim taking such action. I'm sure the Dept. of Commerce head was happy to oblige. Embarrassing.

Oh look it's a banter thread... Well here's my contribution: Just be sure to apply an applicable super heat retardant/resistant suit onto your person before being subjected to this low-silica basalt river of heat, otherwise this song will turn your flammable corpse quickly into the heaping insignificant pile of carbon of which it will become...

Holy shit!!!