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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    12z. It's out on the Euro site. You just have to piece it together. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}
  2. mitchnick
    Fwiw, 12z Euro AI has an overrunning event start around 330hrs and we're on the wrong side. But the EuroAI does jump around past 240hrs. 0z, fwiw, looked like today's 12z snow.
  3. mitchnick
    Fyi, that cold shot has been on all medium range guidance for days, so consider something along the lines of the operational Euro to be credible.
  4. mitchnick
    Euro had 1 run showing the bomb and Gfs 2. Either way, this exercise only proves anything beyond day 4 or 5 is weenie fodder. That said, what time should we start to see the first flakes on the 20th?
  5. mitchnick
    48hrs this run vs 0z and 6z
  6. mitchnick
    Surface-wise, if we want action from the slp, we want to see the rn/sn line move north down south which would signal a northerly trajectory. But chances are not high, of course.
  7. mitchnick
    Pretty sure all players are onshore now, or close enough, so 12z runs are probably the last opportunity for notable changes, if any.
  8. mitchnick
    If we can get a refresher this weekend and then a bigger threat the following weekend or so, that's all we can reasonably ask for around here in an "average " winter imho.
  9. mitchnick
    See above
  10. mitchnick
    EuroAI https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025010800&fh=312
  11. mitchnick
    Clouds always kill nighttime lows.
  12. mitchnick
    You both got it from TWC, so stop lying.
  13. mitchnick
    AA too...wimps
  14. mitchnick
    18z Gem https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=QQ500&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
  15. mitchnick
    Fyi, Cyclonicwx.com now has subsurface maps to the right of the Oisst link. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php
  16. mitchnick
    But total precip for the area is .1-.2" until further south and east
  17. mitchnick
    Sorta does, but that kicker isn't going to let anything slow down, let alone, amplify imho.
  18. mitchnick
    If the southern storm slides out, we're only going to get precip from what's almost a glorified frontal passage.
  19. mitchnick
    Glad we got that cleared up.
  20. mitchnick
    You can see on that Nam radar loop the kicker is a large part of the problem, or so it seems.
  21. mitchnick
    Nam radar In motion would put the southern slug mainly south of most here west of the Bay south of DC. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025010718&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  22. mitchnick
    JMA too somewhat.
  23. mitchnick
    I started beating the desk in November in the La Niña thread that the trough over or near Japan was new and would maintain the trough in the east. Still important to at least keep a ridge out of Japan if not a trough imho. Though not a trough, that 15 day map is close enough to neutral not to hurt us.
  24. mitchnick
    We are at the 12 year solar peak and the sun has been extremely active...recall the recent Northern Lights? https://solen.info/solar/index.html No big deal.
  25. mitchnick
    Sooo close to being sooo much better.
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