mitchnick

Well if it is, why didn't yousay it was presently ongoing instead of saying it "may" occur, or were you just setting yourself up for a future "I told you so?" What else could be the reason? Honestly, I don't get it.

And it may not.

May's Cansip link for December. Though not a Niño, I wouldn’t mind this forecast being correct with warmest anomalies in the western Pacific. Cansips does continue to warm central and eastern areas after December, a bit odd. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025050100&fh=7 P.s. Cansip NA forecast temps for the winter look very similar to its forecast for last winter with BN temps to the north. Here's a link to December you can scroll forward. It did pretty well last year with the colder temps, but who knows. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025050100&fh=7

Nws at for BWI needs to teach its people how to count. Pathetic. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html

Thank the SSW. Actually, an incredibly deep and anonymously long lasting one.

I would be

I meant PDO. Wait until you get old.

It's official...a +PDO. But is it all downhill from here?

The Cansips, like many of us posters, is pretty unstable. But I've been in lock step with 40/70 for some weeks that, imho, a warm La Nada/weak Niño is favored next winter. At least the Cansips agrees at this point. However, Enso progs before August are definitely low skill...again, like many of us posters. Lol

April Cansips just out has a late blooming week Niño. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 Also, pretty cold winter north of Maryland starting in December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 H5 shows lots of ridging up north too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

April Cansips just posted. Looks like a late blossoming weak Niño. Here's the link to December. It warms after December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 Also, fwiw, lots of ridging to the north all winter with BN temps thru winter as well.

Fwiw, Cfs2 is leaning weak Niño now.

6z Gfs agrees

Getting crushed here with that Special Weather Statement storm. Ughhh...hate severe wx.

Find a new friend.

Cfs2 has been advertising a trough in the east for weeks. Not a winter style trough, a summer one, which is much shallower but still effective in giving us regular shots of more tolerable summer temps. Cfs2 has also been pretty consistent with blocking around the Pole for December too. Here's a link to the most recent of the June 500mb anomalies with a caveat that the Cfs2 for those unfamiliar has 4 runs/day. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025031318&fh=3

End of Gem has something. I think all the models are going to be teasing thanks to the SSW, but that doesn't mean anyone in the forum will see anything. Threats are so scattered.

It will. It's just going to take 9 months to do it.

0z Euro just 2 weeks away.

Euro AI. Close to something pathetic.

Thunder up here.

Looking at many years of data makes me feel old. No thanks.

Today’s updated Euro monthly not sold on a Niño yet.

Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet.

18z Ukmet ensembles. I guess you can say there was an improvement over the 12z run (on top).