mitchnick

Should be south of 6z

Very similar to 6z though. Height lines in east are dead on to 6z too.

We need an "I Love You" emoji.

Yes. And when you look at it from a N. Atlantic view and put it in motion, you can see what a mess it will be figuring it out. Interestingly, if you go to the link below and use the slide function to go back from the 84 hrs map of the link, you will see that the lobe in question is the remains of the storm that came through NE yesterday and caused all our wind. It circled around the 50/50 low to now haunt us. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025010300&fh=84

Yeah, I'm lucky. My daughter is a nurse at the hospital, and she said that they've been getting patients with blood clots caused by covid. Hopefully I don't develop those.

And he'll probably hold onto that forecast well past the time it's apparent that it will fail.

You have the history right, but I've never seen an ocean storm like the one that's forecasted nor have seen modeling go from heavy snow, little or no snow, back to heavy snow, then back down to ___? So idk if we can rely on history as a good example for this one. Maybe and maybe not. Lol

Sref https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010309&fh=87&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Hope so.

Fwiw, latest SREF snowfall did shift south, but did put DC/BWI area in the bullseye. Question remains "when does it stop?"

Look, don't try to comfort me. I'm miserable physically from covid and I'm miserable mentally from this storm. Will you just let me be as miserable as possible? Lol

Absolutely on the ratio potential, but if the trend doesn't stop, .05-.10" qpf is entirely possible. That's what I'm worried about frankly.

It appears so on that, but I think that's more of a timing difference between the different runs.

6z Gem, which you can get on Meteocentre.com, went south and looks like the Rgem. But it does have the large swath of light snows as the Rgem, so there'sthat. 6z and 18z runs of the Gem only go out to 84 hrs like the Rgem so I can't say what the total would be. All I can say is this is a real ball crusher after all those model runs of 4-8", or more. Gotta stop the bleeding at 12z. Gotta...or I get more snow today than Sunday/Monday I fear.

Eps south too. Last 5 mean snowfall from our "best" model. Lol

It's that lobe north of Maine that is now showing up and sinking south, pushing everything down.

I've got that sinking south feeling. 6z Gem looks like 6z Rgem fwiw. Confluence seems to be the main culprit, at least on the Euro. I will say that no matter what ultimately happens, modeling has not been stellar with all the shifts that all have made over the past 3 days.

Me too, and I'm exhausted fighting this d@mn covid crap.

It's south alright. More confluence, weaker vort.

Ukie lighter than 18z, but insistent on location.

Nice cold reload too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2025010300&fh=219&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

We need that northern stream to come down and pull it up.

More up here.

Looks good to me https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010300&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Randy, did you mean it doesn't make it north?