mitchnick

But no mention of ratios. However, closest sleet is around Fredericksburg.

Wednesday and yesterday it gave me 2+" today and 12z today gave me 1+". I ended up with a coating in spots.

Yes

Here's a link to the rudimentary map of snowfall thru 84 hrs on the 18z GGEM. The totals are in millimeters, so multiply your color coded area by .4 to get approximate qpf in inches, if you didn't know. It does not account for ratios,just qpf as snow. Snow is over by the end of the run. If you change the model run on the upper right, you can compare changes from 12z and a few earlier runs. You can also change the precip types for ip or zr on the left side. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc

Fair point, but Euro did come north at 12z from its 6z run, so it may have already reached bottom and is on its way back. Idk. I guess we'll see shortly. Lol

Well, from this 18z forecast today and when the first flakes are supposed to start falling, it's 2.5 days. So from that perspective, it is certainly possible.

I think the confluence is interfering with it, so it probably will open at some point.

Gfs has that wound up vort that's bringing in the warm tongue.

At 48hrs, height lines are further north by maybe 20-25 miles, not south.

Nam appears to be bullying that Lobe north of Maine due to the strength of the vort in KY/WV.

At 60 hrs, height line about 50 miles or so north of 12z

Sorry. They don't make tennis balls like they used to.

I hope you know I was kidding. Great to hear.

No you're not. In fact, you're wasting our time and your time, so beat it. How you doing otherwise Bob?

Steady light snow with no discernable accumulation. 5th time it snowed here this year with .6" to show for it. Ughhh

Fwiw, Srefs run to run comparison.

If you care about what the srefs have to say, good news.

Not that I disagree, but would add that it is common for there to be pretty sharp cutoffs due to confluence. None sharper to what I witnessed on the 1/3/22 storm that missed all of PA. I think ur familiar with 795 off the Baltimore beltway. When I went to work in Glen Burnie the day after, there was a thin coating at the end of 795 where it hits Rt. 140. By the time I got to the Beltway, there was 3", and then 7" in Glen Burnie. That was a brutal cutoff that had the storm been bigger, may have rivaled 2010...I say may.

I'm hoping. Eps, like the operational, did increase qpf from the 6z, so that "seems" to be the bottom...hopefully. If we can can at least add .1", preferably more, over the next 2 and half days, my hope of at least 6" should be distinctly possible.

I feel cheated. Who can I sue?

Eps look like operational but at this range, I guess that's what you'd expect most of the time.

We at least stopped the bleeding with the 12z runs. Light snow that couldn't accumulate if it was 0 outside.

Light snow/flurries in Hanover but nothing in the way of accumulations. I expect a coating at most.

Euro ensembles keep the trough in the east thru the end thanks to a reload.