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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Question for the Mets is, on average, as I know every storm and model performance is different, when does the HRRR reach its credible range?
  2. mitchnick
    Forgot to mention, for updates, visit my home page at: https://famoushotweiner.com/
  3. mitchnick
    For mby, I'll go with 3-5" for now, which is the optimistic side of the likely 2-4".
  4. mitchnick
    He's using the Gefs. Eps have done much better this winter in the long range. The cold pattern will end in the form of a typical winter thaw. The question then is whether the cold pattern returns, or does the remaing pattern allow us opportunities. Too early to answer that one. Short was, Eps weeklies gets us around normal last week of this month and then a week of modest (2-3?) AN temps starting the first full week of February. Too early to say beyond that.
  5. mitchnick
    You can recall the winter of 09/10? I have pictures from that winter and I was already an old fart.
  6. mitchnick
    Something we don't usually consider until closer to crunch time, but thought I'd check now is 5H pressure tendencies. We need ridging out front to push that system north. This map shows very nice ridging developing to block the system from sliding south of us. Obviously, too much is bad, but those details will wait. Suffice to say that the Euro would bring this baby north.
  7. mitchnick
    Because Ben Noll is there.
  8. mitchnick
    You guys, and your location in particular, have been royally shafted. Hopefully, we can finally get a Miller A that hits us all.
  9. mitchnick
    About time it turned around meaningfully. I said the other day that the shortwave wouldn't hit the nw Pac coast until 6z Saturday and to expect a honing in at that point. No excuses from now on. Hopefully, 12z follows the 6z trend across all the models.
  10. mitchnick
    New Srefs. Rock solid again with the northern edge creeping north.
  11. mitchnick
    Sounds like I should be prepared for a cluster f___! Lol Honestly, I just saw the new Srefs and they are just as great as the last run. I don't recall such a discrepancy between 2 schools of thought. Something has got to give, but it won't be tonight! Good night and thanks for your input on the Board.
  12. mitchnick
    Ukie ensembles
  13. mitchnick
    Looking at the trend on the new Eps, assuming Euro thinking is correct, it's really hard to think I'll see more than an inch up here. Heck, even the old home north of BWI is around 4" now.
  14. mitchnick
    Ahh.
  15. mitchnick
    I need something big. I'm losing faith in Monday, but not yet taking action at the post office.
  16. mitchnick
    What the heck were you doing with acreage down there?
  17. mitchnick
    Ukie https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010400&fh=168&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&m=ukmo_global
  18. mitchnick
    No sign of it on the Gem. Lol
  19. mitchnick
    Big improvement over 18z.
  20. mitchnick
    Heavy snow in eastern NC not a sign it's coming all the way up usually.
  21. mitchnick
    Looks good here. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  22. mitchnick
  23. mitchnick
    I thought you meant 1/3/22. Nm
  24. mitchnick
    Definitely. Not much, but all the height lines are south a touch.
  25. mitchnick
    We definitely missed 1/22. I think ur thinking 2021.
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