mitchnick

Business or pleasure?

We have 8, maybe 9, more model cycles after 0z between now and the first flakes fall. We don't need much more qpf with temps, so 6"+ is more than doable unless everything suddenly finds it's way to the terlet.

Icon ftw at 180hrs even if falls Monday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025010400&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

That's the fluff

You've just lost ur job.

Looks much like the Gfs, Nam, and Srefs for sure.

Just in case anyone was wondering, the purpose for the NBM. As we know, most model suites have their ensembles at lower resolution. NBM was conceived to take operational models for the most part and use them as an ensemble suite. It makes sense since the operationals have the highest resolution. This was told to me on Phillywx by Rainshadow, who retired from NWS Philly a few years ago.

It's the trend that's most important with the Srefs at this point, and it is positive.

That's just one of the Sref members used in the Srefs I posted. Obviously, the snowiest one! Lol

For those that still don't like the Srefs, I have even more bad news for you. And there's maybe .1" more snow in places on the latest run after the map I used here, but I had to use the 78hrs to compare with the 84hrs on the last run. The storm is a few hours slower, which alows it to expand the precip shield i.e. wetter in some locations. A few places may have been cut back, but those localized reductions will just have to be taken for the team.

Figures. 18z Gfs lost what it was working on the prior 2 runs.

I assure you all panic here is rational...based on which step we are in the program.

With literally 10-11 more model runs before the first flakes start to fall, that much each time will get us close to the Gfs/Nam combo. Lol

My NWS forecast has been updated to 4-7", so I guess they like the other group/average. EDIT: Euro is in that range now.

I think you'll find when comparing them to say Pivotal, the snowfall color scheme is too high on SV. Meaning 6" is really 4" and 4" is really 2", etc.

But no mention of ratios. However, closest sleet is around Fredericksburg.

Wednesday and yesterday it gave me 2+" today and 12z today gave me 1+". I ended up with a coating in spots.

Yes

Here's a link to the rudimentary map of snowfall thru 84 hrs on the 18z GGEM. The totals are in millimeters, so multiply your color coded area by .4 to get approximate qpf in inches, if you didn't know. It does not account for ratios,just qpf as snow. Snow is over by the end of the run. If you change the model run on the upper right, you can compare changes from 12z and a few earlier runs. You can also change the precip types for ip or zr on the left side. https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc

Fair point, but Euro did come north at 12z from its 6z run, so it may have already reached bottom and is on its way back. Idk. I guess we'll see shortly. Lol

Well, from this 18z forecast today and when the first flakes are supposed to start falling, it's 2.5 days. So from that perspective, it is certainly possible.

I think the confluence is interfering with it, so it probably will open at some point.

Gfs has that wound up vort that's bringing in the warm tongue.