mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Comparison to this year's 500mb anomaly forecast for DJF and last year (bottom)
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Here's a link to all the seasonal Euro if interested. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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Updated Euro seasonal out today. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.
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Updated Euro seasonal out. DJF cooler than last run fwiw.
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I know CAPE is seeing #09 and thinking to himself..."it's in the bag weenies."
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You do realize that Dr. Sacoransky is an intern radiologist and not a met? Not that one needs to be a met to post about weather as we all know, but you post him often as gospel it seems.
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I hope the Blue Jays win the WS.
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New Cansips for November. Scroll forward for rest of the forecast. December looking like many other recent forecasts too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=0
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Cansip gives us our well deserved Modoki Niño for next year too! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025110100&fh=11
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New Cansips starts Dec temps with this link below. You can scroll forward from there and switch to H5.. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=1 Dry for December, but around normal precip Jan and Feb. Close up for easter US: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025110100&fh=1 Fairly typical Nina with February the warmest of the 3.
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You posted the 15 day change map. The anomaly map looks quite a bit different for better or for worse.
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Notwithstanding what the Control shows, yesterday's Eps weeklies are not really warm over that same period if you scroll through the link below. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202510260000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511030000
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Just as last year, they keep getting colder as we approach the forecast period. I'll take that as a positive at this point.
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Um, I would "guess" that the Eps sees what you're seeing too, so...
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Lots of cooling near Japen of late.
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Idk. Over the next 40 day forecast period, the Eps weeklies has winds below normal around 2/3's of the time just eyeballin' it.
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Oh the Euro Control...if only it could control itself with snowfall forecasts.
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0z Gfs. Getting ready to switch over in the Metros. How many times on the Gfs would the 390hrs panel, if it existed, be money?
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With actual SSTA's looking like this, probably safe to say that's unlikely this winter.
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PDO dropping makes sense in light of 15 day SSTA change.
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Positive movements here.
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And that's a positive for most in here.
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Trough over or near Japan this winter is key imho. It was showing up last year a lot leading to colder temps, step 1 in snow chances. Then we roll the dice on storm tracks.
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Big difference in the AO region last year to this year.
