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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question.
  2. mitchnick
    Casablanca
  3. mitchnick
    Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too.
  4. mitchnick
    What a tease on the Gfs at 225hrs.
  5. mitchnick
    It's going to continue south in future runs because it's the Gfs. 18z vs 12z.
  6. mitchnick
    How about the Eps, if you happen to know?
  7. mitchnick
    Nah, more of a dual gonadectomy.
  8. mitchnick
    Considering we're looking at little or nothing this week, which we've known for a while, it's not quite as bad as it looks.
  9. mitchnick
    Why do you say that? I never listened to them until this year.
  10. mitchnick
    The guy, Mike, on Bamwx does a nice job explaining things.
  11. mitchnick
    Gfs looks sorta like PD2 with that east-west area of overrunning snow for 12+ hours. I'll take that and call it a season if I had to. Lol
  12. mitchnick
    I was expecting the Gefs and especially the Eps to hold serve over the last run, if not improve, but they reduced snowfall. Wtf
  13. mitchnick
    Imho, as a big believer in seasonal patterns, you always want to be in the bullseye for the first meaningful snowfall. This year, to my/our south. Then to see maps like that just make the other half of me crazy since I started at 50%.
  14. mitchnick
    Brutal 12z Euro run for S Central PA. I don't know whether to laugh or cry, but believe it's possible in light of seasonal pattern. This one's for you Bubbler...and me. Lol
  15. mitchnick
    Gem has been very inconsistent in the longer range for a while, BUT not with this storm. That's 3 runs in a row showing the storm, twice as snow and once as rain. At that range, that's a very decent signal for something other than cold and dry.
  16. mitchnick
    Ukie has a storm at 168hrs, but would be close on temps. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025011212&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  17. mitchnick
    Almost looks like PD2 at the end of the Gfs run...almost.
  18. mitchnick
    Gefs still have a reasonable signal for the 19th-20th fwiw.
  19. mitchnick
    In addition to a decent snow, Canadian looks like this at day 10.
  20. mitchnick
    I would love to see this play out in real life. Pivotal visibility map is nothing short of a weenie dream. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=visibility-imp&rh=2025011206&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  21. mitchnick
    0z Geps and Eps both show 4" snowfall all after day 7 and 6z Gefs is 4.5" all after day 7. That is really impressive from this range and for such a short period on ensembles. 6z Gfs operational is what you'd expect to see (finally) with its ensemble results.
  22. mitchnick
    At least there's a storm on the Canadian, despite "minor" changes to its 12z run.
  23. mitchnick
    Stronger trough out west on Canadian pumps the ridge a bit more than 12z, so it's warmer. But at 9 days, who cares. At least there's a storm.
  24. mitchnick
    Beats the avocado.
  25. mitchnick
    We'll have a better chance with the Canadian than Gfs.
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