mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I wouldn't say it’s the same...more like similar.
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5H Dec-Feb Euro
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And DEC-FEB is +.5-1C. Very workable with normal precip it is also predicting. Monthly forecast indicates January very close to normal with February, like most Niñas, the most AN.
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Updated Euro seasonal for August just out off free site. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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August Euro seasonal just out off free site fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
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Last 4 or 5 days the daily PDO rose from -3.5 to -2.73 on the World Climate Service site, so it's too early to get too concerned for this winter.
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My date of birth.
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Better here than northern and central Canada.
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Glad I don't live in Japan.
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New Cansips run looks very similar to last couple months with normal to BN 40N into Canada fwiw. Pretty consistent ridging over/near Alaska and poleward with SE ridging around until February.
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I hope you're right. I just don't get the excitement over hurricanes and their destructive power.
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There was no consensus last year with a noticeable disparity between the Cansips and Euro for example. But since seasonal modeling runs vary from 4×/day with the Cfs2 and monthly forecasts from others, it's a moving target depending on which forecast you're using.
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Eps showing a relaxation of the trades at 850 coming soon and Cfs2 agrees.
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And most modeling had it above normal in the East/NE at this point and both Don Sutherland and Bluewave were pointing out how the Euro, which had an extensive area AN, was too cool the winter or 2 before. A quick search found this, but I believe it was August's forecast where Don and Bluewave were posting that point.
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Cfs2 has been liking this look for August and September fwiw. Here's August: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025071806&fh=1 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025071806&fh=1
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Who referenced Nao or winter? I just pointed out the current solar spike was a short term spike. No more, no less. The irresistible impulse of you and Bluewave to turn everything negative for posters who enjoy cold or snow is strange to say the least. Actually, it's likely much worse than strange.
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Transient as it breaks the following week.
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Negative PDO may have peaked with notable cooling around Japan over the past 15 days.
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Looks much more temporary when you look at the graphs at the top and bottom of this page. https://solen.info/solar/index.html
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I hadn't posted this, but meant to relating to the trend issue. Top pic is the Euro seasonal June temp forecast for OND and the bottom is July's forecast for same period. I know 2 months aren't a trend, but again, it's moving toward the Cansip with a non-furnace Canada into the Conus. Plus, AN areas aren't going wild.
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That's why I like the Cansips...it can be used to argue both sides pretty convincingly! But seriously, as I said in my last post, I think seasonal model trends for a future season, and not a 1 month forecast, are worth following.
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Seasonal models by definition are intended for periods beyond 1 month, which is why I consider weeklies as being more accurate for 1 month, though flawed too as we know. But that's why I look at forecast trends in the seasonal models as a whole as a better method than taking the forecasts at face value.
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Agreed, but you know as well as I do you'd never would have posted first! Lol
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I didn't want to say it, but thought the same thing.
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Ok, we're back to the 1 particular month issue again, so you'd have to do some kind of compilation of comparing 1 month forecasts verifications. But I've always considered the Cansips a seasonal model even though it forecast period begins at 1 month. For purposes of this discussion, I'm looking for forecast trends in modeling for 6 months out. And as I said, Cfs2 and Euro seasonal show similar trends in areas of at or BN as the Cansips.
