mitchnick

PDO dropping makes sense in light of 15 day SSTA change.

Positive movements here.

And that's a positive for most in here.

Trough over or near Japan this winter is key imho. It was showing up last year a lot leading to colder temps, step 1 in snow chances. Then we roll the dice on storm tracks.

Big difference in the AO region last year to this year.

When it comes to money, those guys have itchy fingers for clicking on buy contracts. Frankly, I thought it was too early in the season for big nat gas usage even with BN temps. Guess I was wrong.

Nat gas up +11% (with oil down a little) as of this posting. Have there been any updated cold winter forecasts from any of the respected forecasters to anyone's knowledge?

Eps forecast on that tweet was from 10/18. The 10/19 forecast loses most of the above normal mean winds and keeps winds below normal 25+ days over the 40 day forecast. Of course, it'll change again today.

If you look at the last 6 weeks of SSTA's at the link below, Enso 3.4 this year has averaged -.3C while last year's same 6 weeks come out to -.416C. It's a little cooler this year, sure. But I'd be a little more cautious about attributing anything to that difference at this point imho. Other portions of the equatorial Pacific over the period are similar in their differences for the most part too. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Thing is, and who knows how much, if any, it matters, but we are likely not going to see an official Niña (5 consecutive tri-monthlies Enso 3.4 average temps at or below -.5C) this winter if consensus modeling is correct. Not that the RONI won't be in Niña territory as well as Chuck's favorite subsurface readings, but it is something that "might" make a difference. In fact, Enso 3.4 temps are struggling to even maintain a -.5C reading over the past month+. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for I'll repeat...who knows.

Chuck's research shows a bias toward a +NAO during winter when October is negative. I'd like to know where DT gets his idea of the opposite. Don't get me wrong, I'm pulling for DT's opinion to be right. Just wondering the basis of his opinion.

BAM wx video regarding winter worth a listen imho.

They did a YouTube video on it too.

There is no warm warm forecast that guy won't embrace and no cold forecast he won't find reasons to poo-poo. Of course, that doesn't mean he won't hype cold/snow if it's in the forecast because business is business after all.

Fwiw from our friends at Accuwx.

Accuwx

October's Cansip run looks a lot like September's fwiw. Cooler up north of MD/PA line but on the dry side, except for March in ENE. 5H starts here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025100100&fh=5

Fwiw, Cansips updated October forecast for D-F looks a lot like last month's of around normal to slightly above as you head south. Temps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4 H5 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4

Might I suggest you go back there.

I really don't care about Dc, it's snowfall history or anything else with this conversation.ENSO ONLY PLEASE.

Per ice core samples at NP. Now we're even. Please, no more cc talk in this thread. Tia

We came out of a roughly 500 year mini-ice age around 1850 and it got warmer thereafter.

The regular Eps has been too warm at range since the start of August while the AI version has been better. Maybe the trend continues and maybe not. Either way, until and unless the regular Eps can prevail, I wouldn't be too concerned with that map. Otoh, even if right, we're real close to the +.50-+1.0C line, so a couple degrees F isn't a scorcher.

Since you mentioned MJO, you made me look! Lol Looks like all modeling has recently (day?) shifted back away from 4-5-6. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html