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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Fortunately, that under control
  2. mitchnick
    No, but my BP is! Lol
  3. mitchnick
    Lol nice hit with a 2nd gasp
  4. mitchnick
    Gem faked us out
  5. mitchnick
    That's usually not a good omen for us, but I guess we'll see
  6. mitchnick
    2-4+"
  7. mitchnick
    Can we just hold this Gfs run for this event
  8. mitchnick
    Always a scary thought.
  9. mitchnick
    Our definition of overrunning patterns apparently differ, but the ensembles look fine.
  10. mitchnick
    Exactly where did I say anything negative about the ensembles? Where? I said the overrunning pattern, except for the Canadian, "appears off the table." I didn't say that meant snow chances were bad. How could you have read that into my statement?
  11. mitchnick
    AI is weak, dry sauce for next weekend. Except for the Canadian, the advertised overrunning pattern appears off the table, so who knows what's next. 6z Gefs got cooler and is looking more like the Eps by keeping it cold thru the end of the run.
  12. mitchnick
    6z Gfs is in the process of shifting s&e imho. Right now, eastern areas not treated too well. I think it ends up like Euro was looking before Euro sorta lost the signal at 0z. 6z is almost out and should be in range to give us a hint.
  13. mitchnick
    6z Gfs moved the slp toward the coast for Sunday and hits west and north lightly. Wag is it continues south and east. Euro basically lost it at 0z.
  14. mitchnick
    Gfs has the now "near" end of the run significant snowstorm.
  15. mitchnick
    Ukie has a storm at around 162hrs that is slow to getvits act together and warm for cities. Nothing big.
  16. mitchnick
    Oddly weak on qpf
  17. mitchnick
    Gem and Gfs are on different planets at 150hrs.
  18. mitchnick
    You don't have to apologize. I hate the effin Euro. Always overforecasts snow imby the run before start-time. Happened twice this year. It's hit or miss like every other model. That said, there are verification stats at this link down the bottom of the page prepared by the Euro folks. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}
  19. mitchnick
    Supposedly has better 500mb verification numbers than operational.
  20. mitchnick
    Just out on TT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186
  21. mitchnick
    18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps. It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z. Better maps out on TT soon.
  22. mitchnick
    Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28.
  23. mitchnick
    I'm not SnowGoose, but 18z GEFS did take a step back from 12z with the SER. It's there, but much weaker.
  24. mitchnick
    I agree on the continued failed attempts, but I think AN comes around 2/10, just not that much AN.
  25. mitchnick
    Euro weeklies do have the SER appearing starting the week of 1/27. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501120000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000
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