mitchnick

The map is a mess to say the least.

It's going to include what's left from Monday, so it won't tell you much.

Another view

18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps. Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs.

Any thoughts this turning into something bigger than shown on modeling, water vapor says fugetaboutit. https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/wv/

The Ukie may be onto something. Radar shows an area to the west of SPA/NMD developing and moving east. Hmmm https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/neus/

That was a last minute fluke in Baltimore and ne into Phl. Forecasts at 11pm in Baltimore and DC said it would miss us. But the forecaster on Channel 7 in DC, Sam Houston Allred, commented that it was odd that there were radar echos due west of DC. Only a weenie would remember that innocuous comment. Lol Got 6-7" imby. I once asked JB about that storm when he was still at Accuwx, and he remembered it distinctly and said he was jumping up and down saying that it was coming north but was dismissed by Sr. forecasters there.

18z Ukie @psuhoffman The way it should be! Lol

Find a new lawyer JI. Lol

Looks on the Euro site it starts as snow then goes to something else with the slp passing to our west. Way out there, so no worries.

I hope this isn't pay walled, but the 12z run of the Cfs looks like what is being described of the Eps and Gefs. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 If you are wondering what kind of snowfall we're talking, run a loop of the snow depth. Nice. Even better, it keeps the trough in the east as of 2/10.

I think the 2/94 event was this one. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html

Thanks. Do you have 850s for the same period?

It'll come south. I honestly believe that fwliw.

Euro

You didn't hear about the office meeting at 10 this morning either, did you?

Never had more snow with SE winds in any winter except for 14/15. And it wasn't once, it was multiple times with that one being the highlight of them. Crazy good.

Must be N of the airport. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFTY.html

Atl had 2hrs of snow and then went to zr/ip at 10am.

The cold lurking to the north has been on the Cansips monthlies for the last 2 or 3 updates, including the current one fwiw.

Remember Bob, this is a weather board. Reality has no place here.

A lot of the modeling has it entering phase 3 then quickly dying into the COD. Any thoughts on how that would change that 5H plot?

I hope. 3 weeks left in the month and yesterday's promising operationals took a night off. I do like a persistent AN precip February forecast from the Cfs for I can't remember how long. Eps weeklies appear to agree with the first half of the month.

I fear, and getting close to the point of expectation, that cold will be overwhelming the pattern to the point of disappointment. Now this post guarantees rain for all. Lol

6z Euro