Jump to content

mitchnick

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    26,236

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    In addition to a decent snow, Canadian looks like this at day 10.
  2. mitchnick
    I would love to see this play out in real life. Pivotal visibility map is nothing short of a weenie dream. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=visibility-imp&rh=2025011206&fh=384&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  3. mitchnick
    0z Geps and Eps both show 4" snowfall all after day 7 and 6z Gefs is 4.5" all after day 7. That is really impressive from this range and for such a short period on ensembles. 6z Gfs operational is what you'd expect to see (finally) with its ensemble results.
  4. mitchnick
    At least there's a storm on the Canadian, despite "minor" changes to its 12z run.
  5. mitchnick
    Stronger trough out west on Canadian pumps the ridge a bit more than 12z, so it's warmer. But at 9 days, who cares. At least there's a storm.
  6. mitchnick
    Beats the avocado.
  7. mitchnick
    We'll have a better chance with the Canadian than Gfs.
  8. mitchnick
    Like I said earlier, I believe we need the ridge from the Atlantic into the coast. Everything that I've seen that gives us snow has that. I believe without that blocking ridge, the risk of sliding to the east or south is great. It's pretty much that simple but it is definitely too early to know. Reporting model runs, whatever they may show, is something we do.
  9. mitchnick
    Look, I know how the game is played. Point out nothing but positive, and everybody is happy. Point out that there are no guarantees and there are ways to lose, and you're the goat. So what? All options are on the table at this point, including success and failure of the ensembles. I'm as hungry as anyone else for snow, but ignoring credible scenarios that could results in failure has always been part of the discussion and just end in more disappointment should they occur if not discussed.
  10. mitchnick
    Yes, but like all the rest, is not perfect. Heisey seems to follow it closer than I do and he believes it's done very well. Past 240 hrs, imho it's no better than any of the ensembles. But you know how it goes, they all have hot hands and cold ones, but never know which it is until the forecast period has past.
  11. mitchnick
    Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast.
  12. mitchnick
    I admit this is all a waste of time (lol), but imho if you don't have that ridging you're just going to have a storm too far off the coast. Fortunately, all the modeling will change enough come 0z that we'll never know.
  13. mitchnick
    You may be right, but I also mentioned the boundary was pushed off the coast. Comparing the 18z Gefs to 12z Geps and you can see on the Geps the ridge nosing west onto the eastern seaboard. Eps looks very similar to Geps. That's my point, whether calling it overwhelmingly cold or pushing the boundary too far off the coast is irrelevant to my point really. Gfs/Gefs, if correct, will not get us to a result like the other 2 suites imho.
  14. mitchnick
    It'll be next weekend at this time before we have a better handle, and probably won't have it nailed down by then either. Lol
  15. mitchnick
    But the 12z Gefs were pretty cold. They pushed the boundary off the coast at 240hrs and didn't have the overrunning. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=850t_anom-mean&rh=2025011112&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  16. mitchnick
    Gfs used to have that bias big time but that seemed to have been corrected. But as long as the ensembles look good, I'll just sit tight.
  17. mitchnick
    I was referring to the day 10 period. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2025011118&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  18. mitchnick
    May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelm the pattern with cold.
  19. mitchnick
    Yep. Mid December and January 31/February 1. Snow on the ground entire month of February with like 4 events.
  20. mitchnick
    Yeah, it was decent up in Hanover with around 32-34" I believe. I'm less than 10 miles north of him.
  21. mitchnick
    It's on TT now.
  22. mitchnick
    Can't tell with those cheesy maps. Too strong of a cold push unless I'm wrong.
  23. mitchnick
    12z Euro AI had a stronger cold press, so not so much snow around and past day 9 fwiw.
  24. mitchnick
    And then blocking may reappear as it often does late in seasons that featured blocking early. No guarantees, but it's not so simple. Heck, 95/96 was a Niña and had no problem being cold and snowy in February for many on the east coast.
  25. mitchnick
    Without the December and early January snows, I don't see how this year can compare to 13/14 unless we get crazy February and March snows.
×
×
  • Create New...