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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    You may not have seen my other post to Bob that I do believe, after any "thaw", a return of winter end of February in early March. Could be wrong, but who cares. And modeling may change, since my thoughts are based on current modeling. But our best pattern should be this month into early February, so that's the real reason for my hope to score soon and often now, redundantly speaking notwithstanding! Lol
  2. mitchnick
    The main vort is northern stream. The vort in the sw sorta lost its identity. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500th&rh=2025010712&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  3. mitchnick
    Basically all northern stream. New twist.
  4. mitchnick
    Didn't realize there's a thread and put this in January thread. Ukie ensembles.
  5. mitchnick
  6. mitchnick
    Always had them, I believe, but no one offered them until Pivotal a few weeks ago.
  7. mitchnick
    Ukie snowfall ensembles. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010706&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  8. mitchnick
    Ukie ensembles too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010706&fh=138&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  9. mitchnick
    Probably should have added this link with it too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025010700&fh=336
  10. mitchnick
    Pretty decent signal for a big dog in the long range on the EuroAI. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025010700&fh=336
  11. mitchnick
    I'm thinking we get an extended winter "thaw" in February, then a last gasp of winter late February into early March. Just a wag, but that's my story and I'm stickin' with it. Cansips and Euro are looking like a weakish Modoki Niño. If right, that along with cooling global oceans, may turn out OK as long as the PDO cooperates too.
  12. mitchnick
    Really need to score in every opportunity we get in January because once the 2nd week of February arrives, the large scale pattern will deteriorate for substantial MA snows based on current modeling.
  13. mitchnick
    That's what I'm hoping for and is likely the top end. I don't like how the Eps keeps jackpotting the MD/DE eastern shores. I'm a firm believer of persistent seasonal patterns and since they were jackpotted yesterday, it wouldn't shock me if it happens again.
  14. mitchnick
    Meh, Eps snowfall leaner than 0z. Tough hobby.
  15. mitchnick
    Plenty of time for minor changes in the trough for improvements. Yeah, it could get worse, but an inch or 2 seems like the basement on most models.
  16. mitchnick
  17. mitchnick
    6z coming as good....or better maybe. Lol
  18. mitchnick
    Not as good as 0z I believe. Snowfall mean shifted SE from 0z, so even though that doesn't look bad, the trend is consistent with other modeling pushing the best eastward. NE actually improved thanks to their sticking out to the east.
  19. mitchnick
    Ughh Bwi hasn't reported snowfall yet, but qpf was .73". Can't wait.
  20. mitchnick
    Chilly outside at around 17. Weekend threat is probably not a big deal with jackpot zones, you guessed it, exactly where yesterday's were. Southern and se PA favored as of now. 1-3" is what's favored now subject to change.
  21. mitchnick
    Rgem looked pretty good at the end. We're seeing a positive trend at least, whether modest or strong, it's positive.
  22. mitchnick
    Icon will probably work for me.
  23. mitchnick
    I'll shoot squirrel. I don't need a elk! Consequential measurable snowfall works for me.
  24. mitchnick
    NE folks like it a lot and believe it a phase as well, but it doesn't really matter for more than 6 hours anyway. Lol
  25. mitchnick
    Here's the 18z Gfs version same time as Nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500th&rh=2025010700&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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