mitchnick

Gem may have something post 180hrs

Looks like 1 on Thursday to me.

The key to February is that all long range guidance has precip AN all along the east coast. So warmer temps and AN precip in February is conducive to snowfall.

1.1-1.2" in Hanover

Looks like the first batter is coming up to the plate at the end of the Icon run. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025011112&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025011112&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

1.1-1.2"

Ensembles have the best look for a 5-7 day period I can remember. Hopefully they don't lose it. 6z EuroAI has the 2nd wave with the snow again. Biggest concern for me remains cold overwhelming but that's more based on seasonal pattern/persistence.

I haven't looked closely at how they do it, but Geps snowfall map is the best of the 3 ensembles. At this range, that's all I need to know. Lol

6z Gfs is continuous cold and dry, aside from flurries. Edit: Gefs snowfall actually pretty decent.

Let's see if the 0z Euro can get it right.

Who's upset? Calling it the way I see it and in light of the concern of too much cold. But I'm not saying it won't snow. I am saying I don't buy Gfs fantasy storms though.

Rumors I buy at this point. Storms, we're gunna have to wait on for a bit.

Snow started in the past couple minutes fast and steady. Like a sheet drifted down from the sky.

Too much of a good thing...cold. The question is whether the new pattern is conducive once we get a thaw. Who knows? Hopefully the Euro will reflect some stability unlike the Gfs and Gefs. Maybe their ensembles look better, but it's not encouraging to see the operationals lose a new pattern so fast.

What happened to the overrunning pattern? It keeps changing after 2 or 3 looks to something else, always further away in time. Just not believing the fantasy storms.

Nothing like what we saw the last few runs. Gfs has a fantasy storm post 270hrs, but that'll be gone by 12z if not 6z.

I said earlier today my fear of cold overwhelming everything. Certainly looks that way thru 240hrs on both Gfs and Gem unfortunately.

Whatever it takes to snow the most before time runs out.

The map is a mess to say the least.

It's going to include what's left from Monday, so it won't tell you much.

Another view

18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps. Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs.

Any thoughts this turning into something bigger than shown on modeling, water vapor says fugetaboutit. https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/wv/

The Ukie may be onto something. Radar shows an area to the west of SPA/NMD developing and moving east. Hmmm https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/neus/

That was a last minute fluke in Baltimore and ne into Phl. Forecasts at 11pm in Baltimore and DC said it would miss us. But the forecaster on Channel 7 in DC, Sam Houston Allred, commented that it was odd that there were radar echos due west of DC. Only a weenie would remember that innocuous comment. Lol Got 6-7" imby. I once asked JB about that storm when he was still at Accuwx, and he remembered it distinctly and said he was jumping up and down saying that it was coming north but was dismissed by Sr. forecasters there.