mitchnick

At 48hrs, height lines are further north by maybe 20-25 miles, not south.

Nam appears to be bullying that Lobe north of Maine due to the strength of the vort in KY/WV.

At 60 hrs, height line about 50 miles or so north of 12z

Sorry. They don't make tennis balls like they used to.

I hope you know I was kidding. Great to hear.

No you're not. In fact, you're wasting our time and your time, so beat it. How you doing otherwise Bob?

Steady light snow with no discernable accumulation. 5th time it snowed here this year with .6" to show for it. Ughhh

Fwiw, Srefs run to run comparison.

If you care about what the srefs have to say, good news.

Not that I disagree, but would add that it is common for there to be pretty sharp cutoffs due to confluence. None sharper to what I witnessed on the 1/3/22 storm that missed all of PA. I think ur familiar with 795 off the Baltimore beltway. When I went to work in Glen Burnie the day after, there was a thin coating at the end of 795 where it hits Rt. 140. By the time I got to the Beltway, there was 3", and then 7" in Glen Burnie. That was a brutal cutoff that had the storm been bigger, may have rivaled 2010...I say may.

I'm hoping. Eps, like the operational, did increase qpf from the 6z, so that "seems" to be the bottom...hopefully. If we can can at least add .1", preferably more, over the next 2 and half days, my hope of at least 6" should be distinctly possible.

I feel cheated. Who can I sue?

Eps look like operational but at this range, I guess that's what you'd expect most of the time.

We at least stopped the bleeding with the 12z runs. Light snow that couldn't accumulate if it was 0 outside.

Light snow/flurries in Hanover but nothing in the way of accumulations. I expect a coating at most.

Euro ensembles keep the trough in the east thru the end thanks to a reload.

Njada'd Just ready to post. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010312&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run.

No

Nobody I know!

The question is whether the lower quality models are just slowly catching up. Idk, but we'll get clues once Gfs, Euro, Gem and Ukie come in over the next 2 hours.

Better have a refund policy!

Fixed!

It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south from 6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate.