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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. Me too, and I'm exhausted fighting this d@mn covid crap.
  2. It's south alright. More confluence, weaker vort.
  3. Ukie lighter than 18z, but insistent on location.
  4. Nice cold reload too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2025010300&fh=219&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  5. We need that northern stream to come down and pull it up.
  6. Looks good to me https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010300&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  7. Randy, did you mean it doesn't make it north?
  8. If a better MR model was coming out now, we would. But this is it.
  9. It's starting the move toward us further west. That's good
  10. Gfs is pulling that cut off out. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010300&fh=177&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  11. 5H short wave goes thru central VA. There will be great ratios with that Ala 2/10/10.
  12. The vort moved so slow it just over amplified into oblivion.
  13. Yeah, I was a little surprised you didn't seem to like it. One more minor adjustment south and ur 9-10"
  14. Snow still falling at 102hrs, but light.
  15. I does sometimes. System last Januarywas supposed to snow 4" then change to ip/or. 6z run of Nam cought the warm wedge and none of the other models did until some at 12z, after it started. Euro never cought on.
  16. Icon rolling. A little faster than 18z thru 54 hrs.
  17. Plenty more snow to come after 84 hrs on the Nam courtesy this ball in KY. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2025010300&fh=84&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 If you touch Dca to get a sounding at 78 hrs then move it to 84, you go from zr to sleet at 84 hrs as the column cools. With that vort moving east, that changeover to snow would probably be over an hour later.
  18. Good luck down there. After a lifetime of being on the short end of the stick in AA County 95% of the time, I know the despair. Good luck.
  19. 18z Ukie Has to be off its rocker.
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