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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    18z Euro has the western edge of the Atlantic gyre moviing further east starting noticeably around 78hrs. Whether that's due to weakening or just pulling east, it's hard to tell. Plus it has a 540 closed low over Missouri at 102hrs vs 543 on the 12z. The results of both are likely the reasons, or at least some of them.
  2. mitchnick
    That too. Anything to get it off the Massachusetts coast a little faster or weaken it some. We're sorta left relying on the old model biases of strengthening blocking too much at this range. Not a great position to be in.
  3. mitchnick
    On the 1 hand we need the 50/50 strong enough to thwart cutters as was showing up previously on modeling. But now, it's so strong and slow moving that it's shredding decent systems (look at all the snow west of the mts every model keeps showing.) The Atlantic is backed up like a morning after a T-bone steak. I think the best case, which we have no control over, is a weaker 50/50 because we still need it, just not as strong.
  4. mitchnick
    We may do better on Friday than Monday.
  5. mitchnick
    So tiring and frustrating.
  6. mitchnick
    Ocean trough is moving out a little quicker by 78 hrs fwiw
  7. mitchnick
    Just saw that on Pivotal and was surprised. Modeling the past couple of days looked better in MD. Now the HRRR and at least 1 other I believe is saying -rnsh instead of snow.
  8. mitchnick
    Geps. Snowfall and odds of 4" or more. P.s. Friday clipper .1" in PA and .2" in MD.
  9. mitchnick
    At this point, they're up and down and will likely be that way until Saturday since the vort reaches the Pacific coast Friday night.
  10. mitchnick
    Ughh. Just lost power.
  11. mitchnick
    That is one vigorous s/w on the Euro at 105hrs. It starts to weaken after that thanks to the block. If that block as currently progged is a hair weaker, it's going to make a big difference for all, and mostly good imho.
  12. mitchnick
    A late save by the Ukie for northern folks. Congrats to all for playing.
  13. mitchnick
    Ukie Kuchera
  14. mitchnick
    Ukie is faster with our s/w, giving Atlantic system time to hang around longer
  15. mitchnick
    Atlantic monster putting up a better fight I think.
  16. mitchnick
    12z Ukie height lines are further north than 0z at 102hrs.
  17. mitchnick
    Head to Buffalo and make a left.
  18. mitchnick
    with that monster trough off the east coast, we'll need it there to pull it north
  19. mitchnick
    Hi Bob. Congrats! What's ur elevation and Smith mtn? Are there roads over it to weenie out in marginal events? Lol
  20. mitchnick
    Those Beemers run hot ya' know.
  21. mitchnick
    Kuchie
  22. mitchnick
    Someone who saw the individual members said the the 6z run lost the misses to the south of DC/BWI and increased misses to the north of them. That's good for us if it was only a day or 2 out, but concerning at 4-5 days as we are.
  23. mitchnick
    That clipper part of the problem as it merges with the storm offshore to potentially shunt our snow threat. So do me a favor and never remind me of it again!
  24. mitchnick
    I detect some meteorological sarcasm in the question. Lol
  25. mitchnick
    Believe me, I remain totally paranoid on this one as a miss for all of us remains a viable option at 4-5 days out.
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