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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Both Icon and Gfs seem to have a stronger ridge along the Continental Divide so they are forced to head south down the coast to 4 corners before moving east.
  2. mitchnick
    Gfs is taking near identical route as Icon with s/w .
  3. mitchnick
    Only a very small area that's currently unfrozen though.
  4. mitchnick
    Nah, let's just go to bed and pretend we won.
  5. mitchnick
    We're getting the band back together!
  6. mitchnick
    Yep. Slower worked.
  7. mitchnick
    Icon much slower moving east. That may be a viable option to get that 50/50 to move, though delays rarely work either. Lol
  8. mitchnick
    Our short wave hits the Pacific NW coast at 6z Saturday per most modeling. So by Saturday 12z or Sunday 0z, runs should be real close to being locked in one way or the other.
  9. mitchnick
    I think we have a day and a half, maybe 2. Once we're within 3 days, a VA or NC storm will not budge. Now a MA storm is different. All NE needs is 12-18 hours like March 2001.
  10. mitchnick
    Fwiw, new Cansips has January frigid, of course, and February and March slightly AN temps. January precip is BN, February is Normal, and March N/slightly AN. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025010100&fh=0
  11. mitchnick
    @Heisy Are you still on Tom's site or somewhere else? I've checked the Philly forum here, but you never post there. Does Tom's site still require an app? Let me know! Thanks
  12. mitchnick
    @GaWx New Cansips run out this evening Larry maintains what looks to be a weak/mod Modoki Niño next year. The link below is for the month of 12/25, but it appears the Niño may peak in November. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=T850a&runtime=2025010100&fh=11
  13. mitchnick
    Ukie snowfall mean. Both 18z (top) and 12z (bottom) include Friday, which isn't much, but I put a link to the 18z Friday totals. My guess is snow is higher on 18z due to losing some northern outliers that had some rain, but that's a wag. P.s. Ukie goes out to 198hrs, so that could explain higher totals than Eps, or it's timing issues. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024123118&fh=90&r=us_state_de_md&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  14. mitchnick
    You'll have to ask them. I don't dance so well! Honestly, I don't know and neither do the models at this point.
  15. mitchnick
    Not true. Many places in the DC/MD & Southern PA jump into 1 shade higher. Plus, as I showed, there's more to come. Here's 24 hr totals that only include Monday event. 18z on top.
  16. mitchnick
    Just to visualize what is holding our fate, it's that spaghetti ball spinning Northeast of Maine. It's the last 4 models runs. It's an absolute crapshoot with every model run. It'll be Sunday 0z before there's any true confidence.
  17. mitchnick
    Awww shucks...
  18. mitchnick
    I know it doesn't end at 144hrs on 18z map because of this 6hr qpf panel at 144hrs. More out west to slide east.
  19. mitchnick
    18z Eps better than 12z believe it or not. It's not over at 144hrs either. 18z on top with 12z below.
  20. mitchnick
    If you look up at the 50/50, it's really a lobe of vorticity that is swinging down that's the culprit. Reminds me of the VA SMD storm of 1/17 I believe that was headed for us but for a small lobe headed due south and shunted the storm from going past La Plata.
  21. mitchnick
    Even the 84 hr 18z NAM swings the vort intact into the coast like the 12z Euro. That's right, I just used the 84hr NAM as confirmation. What are you going to do about it? Lol
  22. mitchnick
    I'm at a point where I wish I could.
  23. mitchnick
    Icon looks to split the trough at the west coast, then cut off the southern energy in the SW to spin toward oblivion.
  24. mitchnick
    Early on, it looks like Icon will fail us. I could be wrong of course.
  25. mitchnick
    There's never any shame in doing what you have to do to post snowfall maps.
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