mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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It's become entertaining how every model is jumping around like I have honestly not seen. Sorry to see the 6z Euro drop east some but Eps had a bigger jump se. It would be nice if the Nam with one of its classic NW jumps was correct. In the end, this strikes me as the first big storm of the season when Sby got around a foot and I got 3".
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I've napped several times tonight. I need to fall back to sleep though. Lol
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I don't know if that's supposed to be directed to me, but I haven't given up on next week. I never said that, which is why I was clear to say "after next week" our time is short. But what's it matter what the opinions of others are? They have no control over the weather.
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AI a little better. Just needs to come west 75-100 miles. The graphics on the Euro site are not good enough to post, but when it comes out on TT or other commercial site, you'll see what I'm saying. It's probably close upstairs.
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I hate destructive wx like wind. Ughh
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Short of a turnaround never seen, Gfs beats the Euro too.
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Gfs and Canadian are next to nothing literally.
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I said after next week because all the ensembles have Pacific warm moving eastward across the country by 3/1 and it's warm. That leaves less than a week between the end of next week and 3/1. But I did keep the door open for a fluke.
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With the Euro, it's just too amped. Been like that ever since that failed upgrade in 2018 imho.
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Operationals are just heading toward their ensemble means.
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Gun to head, after next week I think my snow threats are toast. Nothing short of a fluke that's not on any model is all there is imby.
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The truly wild swings is what is so laughable.
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Lost the Icon. Little or no snow in PA.
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I remember it because my car got stuck 2 blocks from my house and these 3 guys came out of nowhere and pushed me out of the 10-12" of snow in the road between the storm a few days before and that storm.
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Another miss on the AI. Here's how it does it. Basically the tpv becomes a wrecking ball and just drops in too fast and is big. Scroll forward from this spot. It's the only 500mb map worth anything from the AI. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202502151800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502191800
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World peace? You saw too many reruns of Groundhog Day, Groundhog Day, Gro...
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I think we need the bleeding to stop by getting 2 or 3 runs to hold steady, then hope the north trend begins to put the forum back where we were yesterday and Thursday with the primo runs.
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As the Euro comes out, all I'll be looking at is the tpv. Does it stay intact well and does it lag behind vs 12z are going to predict the outcome vs 12z imho.
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The models are simply unable to produce an accurate forecast 5 days or more in advance, and that's being kind.
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That would also explain why the Ukie ensembles didn't do better because despite the greater amplification, it didn't produce because the tpv was further west.
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There is some precip north, but not much vs VA was my point.
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Actually, it's south with the precip. VA does best. Different from last 2 runs.
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Yeah, you can see how paltry the precip is this run because the N stream isn't sucking it north.
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That's what was going to say. We're relying in the southern stream and that's getting pushed east. Idk, just a thought.
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24hr precip
