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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    I know it doesn't end at 144hrs on 18z map because of this 6hr qpf panel at 144hrs. More out west to slide east.
  2. mitchnick
    18z Eps better than 12z believe it or not. It's not over at 144hrs either. 18z on top with 12z below.
  3. mitchnick
    If you look up at the 50/50, it's really a lobe of vorticity that is swinging down that's the culprit. Reminds me of the VA SMD storm of 1/17 I believe that was headed for us but for a small lobe headed due south and shunted the storm from going past La Plata.
  4. mitchnick
    Even the 84 hr 18z NAM swings the vort intact into the coast like the 12z Euro. That's right, I just used the 84hr NAM as confirmation. What are you going to do about it? Lol
  5. mitchnick
    I'm at a point where I wish I could.
  6. mitchnick
    Icon looks to split the trough at the west coast, then cut off the southern energy in the SW to spin toward oblivion.
  7. mitchnick
    Early on, it looks like Icon will fail us. I could be wrong of course.
  8. mitchnick
    There's never any shame in doing what you have to do to post snowfall maps.
  9. mitchnick
    Probably because Euro weeklies are AN precip for weeks 5 and 6 from Mid Atlantic thru NE with normal temps week 5 and slightly AN week 6. Week 4 has normal precip with BN temps which Probably add to the totals.
  10. mitchnick
    Weeklies can-kicked any AN temps, and modestly so, to only week 6. Week 5 is now normal in the east. Weeks 5 and 6 continue to be AN with precip along the east coast from the Mid Atlantic thru NE.
  11. mitchnick
    12z Ukie ensembles (top) and Gem ensembles no longer favor southern areas over northern as prior runs.
  12. mitchnick
    Experience of being in the bullseye 5-7 days out only to get rain/mix with snow to my north.
  13. mitchnick
    It's gunna get ugly.
  14. mitchnick
    Anyone with the Eps snowfall yet? Tia
  15. mitchnick
    Confluence at day 6 is over progged 90% of the time it seems. I'll be surprised if it's that strong on models come the weekend. Plus, let's see what the Eps have to say.
  16. mitchnick
    Euro south this run. Not great for PA.
  17. mitchnick
    They're coming out on Pivotal, but they follow the operational. Drops 1" thru 234 hrs. Lol https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024123112&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  18. mitchnick
  19. mitchnick
    Sorry Bliz
  20. mitchnick
    Remember the Aviation model that was before the MRF. Only went out to 120 hrs, I think.
  21. mitchnick
    It did push further north than I expected. Plenty of time. We don't want too many models going to our south.
  22. mitchnick
    Ukie big hit
  23. mitchnick
    Recent runs of the Cfs get better with AN precip along the east coast!
  24. mitchnick
  25. mitchnick
    If we had a true stj assisting it, 2 famous events that had a similar east-west stripe of moisture hitting a wall of arctic cold come to mind.
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