mitchnick

Weeklies have done pretty darn good so far. The upgrade seemed to actually be an upgrade. That said, weeklies now show a break in the cold for the first 10 days of February. However, it's not prohibitively warm for snows in the Mid Atlantic on north since that period us near climo lows provided the right pattern. More to my point, weeklies have the last 4 days in January and first 10 days in February decently AN with precip. If I was in NYC on north and wanted it to snow, I'd be pretty psyched. Heck, I'm in south central PA and feel I'll have a shot too.

Because it's slower, it's a little harder to compare apples to apples. On a positive note, Ukie ensembles have the best snowfall yet. Remember folks, ensembles are always lighter, so this ain't bad. Also, below is a link to slp at 162 hrs. Not bad either. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2024123018&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Figure this out...18z Euro with a stronger vort but 18z Eps weaker than 12z run.

I don't like seeing it slow down. I think we get the best outcome smashing the s/w into the cold as fast as possible giving the best dynamics. Delayed is so often denied. Plus, closed lows (which it is now showing for the first time) west of the Mississippi rarely turn out well in our back yards. We'll see. Plenty of time of modeling to explore even more bad options. Lol

I don't know what to root for with this one as I could see a fail in any direction.

18z Euro coming out now. It goes out 144hrs, so we should have a decent idea whether it's holding serve.

Don't tell me how to live my life! j/k

Upgrade this year that was sorely needed after the alleged 2018 "upgrade."

This includes other stuff, but Kuchera is better than 10:1 in this threat.

Eps is out too. 12z run better than 0z. 0z on top.

At this point, operationals are just a higher skilled ensemble member wrt 1/6 & beyond. We wait.

Even the actual Euro site is only out to 24hrs.

Ukie is crushed...along with our dreams.

You'll need to subscribe first to get an answer.

Gem at 156hrs looks much different thann0z. S/w is more amped put west. Shocked if it cuts, but shred and suppression still on the table.

He was trying to keep it Direct.

6z Euro/Eps a little faster than 0z in moving system eastward. No big changes other than that to these weenie eyes.

Can't disagree one bit, but the end of fantasyland on the Gfs ain't chopped liver either, though it starts a little warmer.

Nice runs on the 0z Euro and 6z Gfs.

Next 1 is lighter snow, but close to much better.

The slp off the coast that was 1/6 storm refuses to leave which is messing up the flow methinks.

Or Flipper.

Hits a wall. I'd be fuming if I was in NE.

Any tic or 2 of trending and it'll look more like the Euro unfortunately.

12 Euro AI sends the 6th to the south with light precip in the area, more south, and brings the 2nd storm further north and clips area with .2-.3" qpf. Bottom line, better than operational.