mitchnick

Fwiw, Srefs run to run comparison.

If you care about what the srefs have to say, good news.

Not that I disagree, but would add that it is common for there to be pretty sharp cutoffs due to confluence. None sharper to what I witnessed on the 1/3/22 storm that missed all of PA. I think ur familiar with 795 off the Baltimore beltway. When I went to work in Glen Burnie the day after, there was a thin coating at the end of 795 where it hits Rt. 140. By the time I got to the Beltway, there was 3", and then 7" in Glen Burnie. That was a brutal cutoff that had the storm been bigger, may have rivaled 2010...I say may.

I'm hoping. Eps, like the operational, did increase qpf from the 6z, so that "seems" to be the bottom...hopefully. If we can can at least add .1", preferably more, over the next 2 and half days, my hope of at least 6" should be distinctly possible.

I feel cheated. Who can I sue?

Eps look like operational but at this range, I guess that's what you'd expect most of the time.

We at least stopped the bleeding with the 12z runs. Light snow that couldn't accumulate if it was 0 outside.

Light snow/flurries in Hanover but nothing in the way of accumulations. I expect a coating at most.

Euro ensembles keep the trough in the east thru the end thanks to a reload.

Njada'd Just ready to post. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010312&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Gfs loses the lobe over Maine for the most part this run.

No

Nobody I know!

The question is whether the lower quality models are just slowly catching up. Idk, but we'll get clues once Gfs, Euro, Gem and Ukie come in over the next 2 hours.

Better have a refund policy!

Fixed!

It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south from 6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate.

Should be south of 6z

Very similar to 6z though. Height lines in east are dead on to 6z too.

We need an "I Love You" emoji.

Yes. And when you look at it from a N. Atlantic view and put it in motion, you can see what a mess it will be figuring it out. Interestingly, if you go to the link below and use the slide function to go back from the 84 hrs map of the link, you will see that the lobe in question is the remains of the storm that came through NE yesterday and caused all our wind. It circled around the 50/50 low to now haunt us. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025010300&fh=84

Yeah, I'm lucky. My daughter is a nurse at the hospital, and she said that they've been getting patients with blood clots caused by covid. Hopefully I don't develop those.

And he'll probably hold onto that forecast well past the time it's apparent that it will fail.

You have the history right, but I've never seen an ocean storm like the one that's forecasted nor have seen modeling go from heavy snow, little or no snow, back to heavy snow, then back down to ___? So idk if we can rely on history as a good example for this one. Maybe and maybe not. Lol