mitchnick

Fyi, Ukie ensembles now available on Pivotal out to 198 hrs on free site. Can never have too many ensembles. Lol https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2024122912&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

6th not a southern slider on Eps.

Last 4 runs on the Euro for the 6th, including today's. And to think it has the highest verification numbers (but that's admittedly at 5 days.) More changes to come obviously.

Today's 12z run plus prior 3 12z and 0z runs of the Euro operational. Expect more changes to come.

Time for the Gefs.

With the cut intact, may set up for big dog.

I should have added this too. Doesn't look like it'll have a chance to go far enough north to ruin things even if it does try.

Agreed, but it's better than your average ensemble member and has other support, so it's worth taking a look.

Icon sending the 6th south it appears.

6z Euro vs 0z. You can see better ridging north of the Great Lakes at 6z, likely caused by the stronger trough off the east coast, and a slightly weaker vort hitting the NW coast (that's the 1/6 system.) All of that would increase chances of a 6z Gfs scenario imho by pushing a slightly weaker system to the south of its cutter depiction on the Euro's 0z run. Plenty of time to change, and likely with each run until we're closer. P.s. I don't think the fact the 1/6 system is shown coming in slightly north would make a difference due to stronger ridging north of the GL. Again, jmho.

More before and after, but at this range, that's a nice signal on Eps for 24hr snowfall imho..

2 warmanistas stewing over their likely wrong forecast. Big time sour grapes there imho. Freebie maps do not show ridging as strong as the WxBell maps. JB maps overdoing it...whoda' thunk? And the Euro weeklies maps do not show the East cooking at all. Normal temps, which will work fine for those who like snow, unlike Gabe and Vlad, given the right track.

Euro a big old Miller A like days of yore.

Seems like the models aren't certain which short wave to key on, so probably plenty of time and stress before we/models know.

Temps in the low to mid teens during it!

Euro

Canadian looked better than Gfs for something worthwhile early on.

Impressive support on Gefs at this range. Actually has some accumulations on earlier panels near gulf coast. P.s. more to come after that 24hrs period on Gefs too.

Strong support on Gefs at this range.

Don't see this every winter.

This is something different. Lol

Understatement of the year nomination! Lol I wanna' cry...and NOT because of traffic in Hanover!!!

Yes https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

Fwiw, Eps weeklies colder today for every week vs yesterday’s run.

Eps weeklies even colder than yesterday with some areas in the -6C to -10C level for the first time. All weeks are colder than yesterday and AN for MA and NE in week 6 is gone now too! https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202412280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501060000