mitchnick

Kuchie

Looks like a poor man's Euro.

If that gets shredded, then the writings on the wall for the Euro. Unless the Euro is on its own by moving that monster 50/50 low.

Gem has a very strong closed low. It may have a chance.

No way it wins with this behemoth out in the Atlantic.

Ocean storm is sucking it dry.

It really needs to keep that closed 5H low intact as long as possible to hold it together.

The only way for the storm to bust thru that block is with a tight, closed low, which is what the Icon had and now the Gfs.

At 132hrs, 0z Gfs 5H looks almost identical to 18z Euro if you can believe it.

Idk, Gfs seems to really be making something out of that Friday clipper, which is only going to push the boundary further south. Other models aren't doing that I don't believe.

From what I'm seeing, it feels the effects of the storm off the coast, which interrupts it's flow and the dynamics, so it just peters out. Storm off the coast needs to move out or vort needs to slow. But slowing the vort could leed to a whole new set of problems, known and unknown, imho.

Kuchie

Icon's a hit

Icon looking better at 138hrs. Should be north of 12z.

I see why you remembered that run and I didn't. Lol

At 4/day, I can't remember them all. Lol

Yeah, telling us we'll need to wait until the weekend.

Actually, I see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

EuroAI has a lot to learn methinks.

Euro AI takes southern piece and spawns a coastal that is better south. Here's precip link. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2024123018&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Actually, I see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

Actually, I see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

Just lost the 18z EuroAI. Crushed south.

Weeklies have done pretty darn good so far. The upgrade seemed to actually be an upgrade. That said, weeklies now show a break in the cold for the first 10 days of February. However, it's not prohibitively warm for snows in the Mid Atlantic on north since that period us near climo lows provided the right pattern. More to my point, weeklies have the last 4 days in January and first 10 days in February decently AN with precip. If I was in NYC on north and wanted it to snow, I'd be pretty psyched. Heck, I'm in south central PA and feel I'll have a shot too.