mitchnick

There's a guy in a house a few down from me that's always blowing leaves out of his yard. Drives his immediate neighbors crazy. So we just got finished getting a 10 minute or so downpour and he was out there blowing leaves. Rain stops and a minute later he stops blowing. Add on top of that it's dark outside. Just crazy. You'd think he'd at least check the radar first.

Just because you forced their hand to post a snow measurement, doesn't mean you can now strong arm them into a fog advisory.

It's just the Gefs doing that. You get those crazy RMM forecasts more often with ensembles because it's a mean, so a couple goofy members skew the mean.

That s_w north of Montana wasn't there on runs with the decent results last week. Plus, maybe acting as an unwanted kicker. Idk

Last comment. The whole forcing issue began when I posted a 360 hr Eps map showing that it has forcing will be entirely in the E-Pac. It wasn't directed at anyone in particular. Go back and look, but you said I can't use single periods and that I had to use 7 day maps and it went from there. I never attacked you personally nor questioned motivations, but you did. It's called vigorous debate and my points were valid and apparently correct enough for you to feel compelled to accuse me of going "gotcha." Now I'm the cause of people not posting here? You're kidding me, right?

Now it's time for the "I'm better than you" cheap shots. Lol You are way too transparent with your glib posts. It's obvious you are having a problem with forcing moving into the E-Pac. I guess it goes againt your forecast or agenda, idk. It is odd though. Modeling shows it happening, whether you look at individual hourly forecast panels or 7 day. Enjoy it.

Hmm, just about to respond to your last post, but it's been deleted. But I know what you said and in light of the JMA, why it was deleted. Anyway, Euro using your, I'll call it, "preferred" method from last night's run (7 day average), has diminished almost all forcing from W-Pac. Attached are last night's 0z (top) and Saturday night's (middle). While using the 360 hrs panel (bottom) alone (there being no reason not to), continues to show all forcing in the E-Pac.

-rn here

Perfect example why I hate the Euro. 18z run, almost real time to the start of the event, gives me 1" Kuchera and between 1.5-2" using 10:1. What do I get? A thick coating. What a pos that model can be.

Lawyers kids have got to eat too you know.

Had a thick coating on everything except paved areas but most has melted or been washed away. Beautiful to watch but disappointed it turned out how I feared yesterday. Just hope those Eps weeklies are close to being correct as advertised temps for most, if not all, of January will be at or below normal. Not that I have a very convincing grasp on normal.

That's between 15N and 15S, so of course it will be different from the entire world view shown on the TT map I posted. But if the TT maps are no good, misleading, or shouldn't be posted, why do you post them? Bottom line, they show what they show even if you apparently don't like or agree with them. I'm just a humble messenger.

Yeah, but what if the neighbors see it.

Slp is actually a touch further south and west of 12z and that run dropped 8-9".

Fwiw, surface looked darn healthy. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024121518&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Though a touch further east, Icon is deeper at 120hrs on the 18z run vs 12z at 126 hrs

I'm still close to the front end (I'm gunna' regret saying that), so I may yet get the 1-1.5" the Euro predicted imby.

Grass and mulch caved, albeit barely!

Snow after briefly a mix to start.

You got screwed my friend.

I correctly posted a map at 360 hours that showed forcing over the W Hem. Period! Lol But even considering the map you posted, the trend is for forcing to weaken over the Maritime and end up over the W Hem. This can be seen by using the slide function to put the forecast in motion starting on day 9 (the first day of the period your map showed) and going to the end of the forecast, my 360 hr map. By the way, when did this site employ "model police" anyway? Lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2024121500&fh=216

Nope. He was obviously referring to monthly forecasts made before the month. You're talking about medium range forecasts that you claim are wrong. 2 different things completely.

I used the 360 hr forecast and not 6 day you used. You could at least use the same forecast period. Lol

He was talking temps, not snow. Why change the subject to snow or model forecasts? Unless you can show a model that showed colder than what has occurred, flawed modeling has literally nothing to do with it.

So what's your forecast, without hedging?