mitchnick

Congrats. Enjoy!

Former lawyer. I officially filed the last papers in my last open estate on Monday. Finally! Should have happened a year ago but client just dragged his feet. Oh well, I'm done.

Anybody have any opinions on this guy? I don't follow anybody on X. It was posted in the MA forum. https://x.com/shark_wx/status/1861847216656195755?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1861847216656195755|twgr^852392dce2a573042c1988905ef4040d137e79bf|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fshark_wx%2Fstatus%2F1861847216656195755%3Ft%3DVToEIAHSESOX90fk7tm_Fg26s%3D19

Patience...at my age? Naĥĥhhhhhh

Actually, ensemble snowfall means on all 3 jumped imby from being an inch+ for the last 4+ 360hr runs to between 2.5"-3+". Doesn't guarantee snow, of course, but odds have certainly increased, which is all you can hope for with ensemble means. Everything of consequence is day 7+, so that part still stinks.

Cold/dry patterns, as hard as they have been to come by lately, are a lot easier than snowy patterns. Cold without snow is more frustrating to me than just a lousy/warm pattern. But, others may disagree.

So we just don't know. Lol To be fair, it's hard to feel comfortable with any MJO forecasts past 7 days, and even that's a sttetch.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ It's basically resulting 500mb plots from MJO in a particular phase based on Enso conditions. Certainly, nothing's a lock since other factors can and do influence the pattern. But it at least gives you an idea.

Are you saying those plots are flat out wrong or just offering criticism? Model trends are always important and all forecasts are subject to change. And yeah, lots can go wrong with any forecast, but are you saying it will or just musing?

Here are phase 6 neutral and Niña. I attatch Niña because although we're are currently neutral, will the current trade wind burst get us to minimal Niña conditions? We'll see.

Do you mean neutral Enso, because it is. Something else?

But with a neutral Enso, Phase 5 looks like this.

We want a little bit of ridging in the Atlantic or we'll never get anything to come up the coast. Like everything, it's too much of a SE ridge that's the killer. Looks to fade at the end of the run so hopefully it's not too much.

Like flies on a rib roast.

Fwiw, aseveral days ago the Cfs2 started looking like a Niño February with at or below temps and AN precip.

Nam just came in colder for Thursday and says snow not far from MDT. But alas, it's the Nam.

Talk about disappointing model runs. Ughh...nothing of substance to look forward to and the ensembles are just as bad as the operationals.

Isn't the strength of the features in close vs far out more just a function of the weakening of features the further out you go in the forecast? For example, taking the 300hr map from 0z 11/19 compared to last night's run, surface temps are wayyy colder . But that's not due to a different pattern, rather the closer in time you go with ensemble forecasting, the more clarity ---> strength many features will have (providing the same basic pattern holds thru the period, of course.)

If you go to the N Hemisphere link below and put last night's EPS run in motion, backwards and forward, you can see that the cause of the weakness in the ridge is from the remnants of the prior trough off the Aleutians that was dragged back into the next trough replacing that prior trough. The ridge was solid before the weakness you mentioned and quickly corrects back to a strong state. So although it may happen as you muse sometime in the future, I don't think last night's run is an example of that. Otoh, if you think that interaction does represent a Niña strength Pacific Jet, it's effects were so brief and overpowered by the stability of the pattern it argues against the Pacific Jet being the source of a collapse in the pattern any time soon imho. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024112600&fh=132

https://home.pivotalweather.com/subscriptions

I'll take the 12z Euro run and be happy.

Oh the pain.

Cfs2 says there's a week of strong trades, then they become sketchy; not atypical of Climo when enso forcing peaks near Christmas. MEI rose to only -.5. Writing is certainly on the wall. Plus, you lose the the strengthening Niña influence and you open the door to re-energizing the ridge on the west coast like the end of last night's EPS.

Just use the Euro maps.

Larry, if modeling is anywhere close to being right, you should be seeing snow this year after a long and undeserved drought. Congrats.