mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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The best part is, there are decent arguments on both sides. So we just sit back and hope for the best. I think the La Nada conditions for so long with only recent Niña conditions has been a real screwball to long range modeling in part due to the lag in atmospheric response to the Niña. The La Nada has let a background Niño hold on, now it's the Niña fighting against it.
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6z Gfs is looking for Ray.
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3k Nam on board now for ENE
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6z Nam Kuchera. 10:1 is crazy.
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Icon is another disappointment.
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3k Nam not buying what 12k is selling.
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It's snowing in yby? Wtf? That's not fair.
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Hey Voyager...WmsptWx just called you a wimp!
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I forgot to say, I'll certainly be dead by 2045. Lol
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I avoid 94 as much as possible. Plenty of side roads parallel it negating the need to go on it. Heck, I even get to the Starlight going thru the Mall parking lot in back. Since I met my wife, she has always marveled at my ability to avoid traffic jams (hate them.) With a map in the car, it's even easier.
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Oh, great. More accidents there than intersections around here imho.
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Frosty all over here. Some day I'll say snowy all over here.
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You forgot "people who drive like me." Thanks.
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1. No I don't. 2. Past performance is no guarantee. 3. Eps just had a major upgrade, so assuming it will have same biases/errors is probably not something one would want to expect. 4. Eps still has better performance numbers, though I admit I'm not in love with that method. 5. It shows exactly what I want to happen just as the Gefs shows exactly what you want to happen! Lol
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You are a better man than I.
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THV got down to 25. Upper 20's and low 30's around me. Bit cooler than low 30's forecast.
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Snowman, that Geps map is not 500mb anomalies. It's run-to-run changes. This is the 336 hr Geps 500mb anomalies off 0z. As for the Maritime Niña standing wave, the 7-DAY EPS 200mb from 0z says it will be taking a seat by the end of the run. In fact, the hourly map says it's gone at 216 hrs.
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Icon moved north a bit, but still pretty nice considering. Question is whether it continues to move north toward the 12z Euro bullseye of NYC in future runs?
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On 2nd thought, it's probably just lag time for surface to catch up to air temp. Though, sometimes it could be snow cover too.
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Surface temps are cooler than 2m temps. Sometimes, it's the other way around. Snow cover? Idk Don't mind me, I worry about the well being of snakes in the grass.
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We have a decent breeze here.
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Per Pivotal Geps, the warmup in the MA & SE is not that much compared to Gefs and Eps, with the largest AN anomalies along the US border. Possible the Canadians sold the Wall Street folks a subscription? Lol https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&rh=2024121700&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 P.s. I have a Pivotal subscription, but I think the Geps are available on the free site if you don't.
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Yep. Canadian dry as a bone.
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Gfs is trying with scattered -snsh.
