mitchnick

That map doesn't do it justice for the southern weenies. Composite radar 84 hr Nam does!

Wha' happened to him?

You forget about a couple of brief warmups thrown in between now and next weekend, but we can certainly pray. Western PA should do pretty well with snow from that cut-off low, so we can hope he spends his time in his thread ducking arrows for a few days. A little part of me wants to troll him every hour it snows with updates from Dubois, but payback is a biatch. Lol

To maintain my weenie status, here's 10:1.

Man, and that's Kuchera too. Nishe.

Best run of my life. OK, so I've lived a sheltered life. Gimme a break.

If you live in the east and like snow, 18z Gfs gives you many opportunities to abuse substances if you're so inclined.

I was wondering something similar today after having eggs this morning and chicken for dinner. :p

There's no -Enso option, only +Enso or the one I posted. But it's my understanding the option other than +Enso is neutral or Niña. Happy to be corrected if someone has a map specific for Ninas. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Gefs puts us in Phase 6 by the first of December. Assuming an amplitude >1, we get this below. It's not that far off what the models are advertising. Unless I pulled up the wrong map, which is always possible.

That's a 48 hr forecast. I believe it. I thought you were talking further into the mr/lr.

Eps cooler for Thanksgiving than the 0z run fwiw.

How many knots do you consider "overpowering?"

Look at this link Larry. Red ink print under EP/NP. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/#EPO

See 40/70 post above.

6z Eps likes the chances of most to at least see flakes in the air, if not accumulations, over the next 6 days.

Here's a list of all "alphabet" data indices from CPC if that's not what you were looking for. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/epnp_index.tim

To be fair, cold advertised on the models, like that coming this week, looks pretty concrete. But there's no doubt models overdo cold and snow at mr and lr, but we'll just have to see if it's delayed or denied. I have said ever since the alleged Euro suite upgrade in 2017 that it was, in fact, a degrade. It's never been the same and is undoubtedly snow crazy in the 3-7+ day range and not a ton better in short ranges.

That's not to say Eps doesn't still bring in the cold.

1 thing I didn't consider yesterday is the delay of the MJO effects. As I think about it, that may explain what we're seeing there should it hold. But models are famous for screwing up timing, so we shall see.

Actually, I admit to stealing it from 40/70, or something very similar, when he's bustin' chops. Look at it this way, if things turn out your way with the forecast, I'll never hear the end of it and I know it. Lol

Generally agree. But you refer to it as a mismatch. I don't look at it like that. Something is keeping the ridge out west and the trough in the east. I think it's more that the MJO isn't driving the bus. That's where what I've been harping on, namely, the trough over/near Japan and the resulting trough in the eastern Conus, comes in. I think as long as that remains in the means, the ridge out west is stuck, providing the MJO wave doesn't strengthen more than currently progged or stall (which is not currently progged either.) Otoh, we either lose the trough over Japan or the MJO waves misbehaves as mentioned above, and Qu-mon and Snowman starting dancing naked, hand in hand, down the middle of I95 in 65-70 degree sunshine. Once the MJO phase gets into a more favorable phase, say late Dec-early January, then it's game on notwithstanding what happens in December, assuming there's even a game in the east this winter. Lol That's my wag.

All 3 ensembles at 12z just got even colder for the first 3 or 4 days of December. One thing to consider is the Gefs has really sped up the wave and it's no where near as strong as the Cfs with the wave. In fact, none of the models are. My thinking is maybe the speed of the relatively weak wave depicted on the Gefs won't allow for the warming of an otherwise slower, stronger wave, which is why all ensembles have remained on the colder side come December. Idk, just wondering. We'll see.

Geps ain't bad looking either. Has the highest ensemble snowfall of all 3 ensembls. It was the warmest of them only 2 runs ago too.