mitchnick

Real snow all of a sudden. Pigeon Hills now almost obscured.

Flurries are steadier here. Shocked 12z Nam twins remain bullish.

HM

Just random flakes here. Visibility to Pigeon Hills (1,236' asl) 2 miles to my north hasn't even been reduced. Meh. Those downloading westerly winds are killing me up to this point. HRRR looks lousy outside of higher elevations too. I need a life.

I'll never forget his response to one of my posts on Easternwx 6 days before PD2 (2/03) outlining the initial overruning snows imby (BWI) and the ultimate evolution of the storm. Not to belittle any other poster here or anywhere else, but he's the best met I've seen. I'm just sorry he doesn't post here anymore.

1st few flakes in Hanover

We're all definitely still in the game. Just gunna have to give it more time.

Not to be a downer d*ck, but I think I know where it's going comparing 0z 850's to 6z. But still plenty of time. 0z Ukie was colder than Euro fwiw, but slower with the evolution which may or not be bad.

May end up right, but they are basing it on the seasonal models that all missed the colder December now on the maps. So I'd toss it based on stale data.

6z Euro went way warm for everybody. Don't trust it yet, but trend hasn't been great since Wednesday's jackpot runs of Gfs and Euro.

Looks like Euro weekly control caved for December.

From MA forum link https://x.com/webberweather/status/1859834206731514183?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1859834206731514183|twgr^11980a2b1ad670b9969d1980f82fb5188548f3a7|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1859834206731514183

How did we get that? Stronger 50/50 and slightly weaker wave out west.

For next week, we just need minor trends run to run to cash in. We got one of those with the 18z Eps vs 12z Eps. 850 temps pressing further south.

I was just going to post how incredibly stable the cold pattern is. Absolute opposite of every winter since 13/14, though 14/15 was chilly.

It's good for us.

Nothing...a friend covers your azz. It's politics.

18z Nam twins absolutely love Bubbler. Congrats

Gem ain't bad with 1st wave, but we're on the far southern end. Sorta like Gfs.

Fyi, Rgem has never been on board with much accumulations outside of the Poconos and Somerset County/north and 12z is no better. At least we'll get to see if any particular model(s) have a hot or cold hand to start the season.

Those comparisons are from 1 point in time, 120 hours out. A lot can go wrong with a forecast 5 days out with any or all of them. I "think" I recall seeing a comparison less than 120 hours out and there was a marked unification of all the model forecasts as would be expected. Personally, with all the things that can and do go wrong with forecasts, I think this is one of those things (best model) that rests with anecdotal evidence as flawed as that may often be. I mean we all can probably agree that the Euro used to be the best model based on our experience, but can likewise all agree now that it is not as good as it was based on experience. Jmho

Interesting. Maybe the next question, assuming we see the same look in early December, is whether we should bother caring what the seasonal models say. Idk. Both the Euro and Cfs2 weeklies just caught on to the cold pattern yesterday.

6z Gfs crapped the bed on all the threats by pushing them north. That's closer to climo so it has some merit, but everything remains on the table this far out.

Pouring, windy, and thunder.

Anybody know where the ACE ended, or soon to end? Seems like it made a last ditch save into something respectable. Thanks.