mitchnick

Isn't the strength of the features in close vs far out more just a function of the weakening of features the further out you go in the forecast? For example, taking the 300hr map from 0z 11/19 compared to last night's run, surface temps are wayyy colder . But that's not due to a different pattern, rather the closer in time you go with ensemble forecasting, the more clarity ---> strength many features will have (providing the same basic pattern holds thru the period, of course.)

If you go to the N Hemisphere link below and put last night's EPS run in motion, backwards and forward, you can see that the cause of the weakness in the ridge is from the remnants of the prior trough off the Aleutians that was dragged back into the next trough replacing that prior trough. The ridge was solid before the weakness you mentioned and quickly corrects back to a strong state. So although it may happen as you muse sometime in the future, I don't think last night's run is an example of that. Otoh, if you think that interaction does represent a Niña strength Pacific Jet, it's effects were so brief and overpowered by the stability of the pattern it argues against the Pacific Jet being the source of a collapse in the pattern any time soon imho. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024112600&fh=132

https://home.pivotalweather.com/subscriptions

I'll take the 12z Euro run and be happy.

Oh the pain.

Cfs2 says there's a week of strong trades, then they become sketchy; not atypical of Climo when enso forcing peaks near Christmas. MEI rose to only -.5. Writing is certainly on the wall. Plus, you lose the the strengthening Niña influence and you open the door to re-energizing the ridge on the west coast like the end of last night's EPS.

Just use the Euro maps.

Larry, if modeling is anywhere close to being right, you should be seeing snow this year after a long and undeserved drought. Congrats.

Nam is colder. That's the key.

Should have added not to rely on the precip map but click on your location to get the sounding and suggested precip type.

Don't look now, but the 18z Nam is advertising precip coming in Wednesday night as snow for many. Pivotal Nam maps have me with Snow as likely precip. Time to run with 84 hr Nam progs folks. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024112418&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

EPS hitting southern central and eastern Canada hard with snow over the next 2 weeks. That won't be melting fast, if at all, in the coming weeks. It should really help in refrigerating lower levels of the atmosphere this early season.

Gfs suggesting a shot at a clipper late next weekend. But it could get killed by the mts. We'll see.

JB went warm this winter, didn't he? It'll be fun to see him try to get out of that hole IF the current progged pattern, in varying degrees, can hold. JB aside, it has to break down at some point (assuming it comes to fruition) because no pattern is forever. Once it breaks down, does it reload or revert to the consensus seasonal forecasts.

Lol...like I said, ingrained.

You have made 2 posts trying to minimize cold during a future period of time that obviously, hasn't occurred. That's an agenda whether you realize it or not. There is no way possible to know in advance the "future progged" pattern will ever be close enough to those years listed on that composite to compare them fairly until the forecasted period occurs. Yet, you use that list like it's 11 days from now. And for what? Convince yourself or others it won't be as cold as years past? Like I said, sounds like an agenda to me whether you want to admit to yourself or not. Why don't you just let it play out and then analyze the numbers. Maybe you'll be right or maybe you'll be wrong, but you won't have anyone to question your reasons.

I'll be blunt...what's your point other than to nitpick, or is it just an agenda issue ingrained in you? Because I can't see any other options. We have a pattern that not only goes against every lr forecast, but makes everyone who acted as if they know it all look really stupid, and you make another post trying to belittle the cold. Why do it and what's the point? And yes, this pattern will end at some point. So what? That won't minimize the undeniable error of those with forecasts, musings, hunches, discussions that never had this pattern on their radar...which is everyone!

Fwiw, Icon says it rains. SE of Euro, but rain nonetheless because of warm atmosphere to start. Does go with the double system idea Gfs once had.

All ensembles say it (BN tems in the east) lasts in varying degrees starting in 72 hours for the duration of the ensemble runs. That should do the trick, if not sooner.

Incredible how we could go into what was thought to be a slam, dunk furnace only to be quite the opposite. This is how wx weenies are made/proliferate. Lol

Did he bother to say how much snow? I honestly haven't read him for at least 10 years and I recall he loved to claim victory when it was a vague forecast of snow and not much ever felling he insinuated much more. He did have some great calls years ago, but haven't heard anyone touting anything great in a long time.

I don't know why Dave went into meteorology when it's obvious from his tender, caring writing skills, a job in palliative care or hospice would have been where could have shined as a soul mate to the dying. I can just hear him now... -Come on and die mf'er, you can't live forever -Hurry up, already, discounted funerals are always available mid-week, not that anyone will show up to see your shriveled old azz

The problem with early season cold waves is the lack of cold at the surface. Compare 850 anomalies to surface anomalies.

Euro puts many in central and southern PA out of our misery early. Lol Wonder if it's stopped trending nw?

Ukie another suppressed and strung out solution.