mitchnick

Fwiw, Icon looks like Gfs'ish thru 174hrs.

I agree about everything being possible at this point. But seeing a Va/NC snowstorm for basically 3 runs in a row on the Gfs and then one pops up on the Gem last night, and I'm already googling grief counselors in the area!

So many possibilities with this one, but the Gfs/Gem scare me if it does emerge as a snowstorm vs the Euro rainstorm. Niñas are infamous for Va/NC snowstorms and the evolution "currently" advertised on the Gfs/Gem are just that, and except for a few tease runs showing a northward progression, they often fail to make it north of Fredericksburg, VA. Believe me when I say, from a BWI perspective where I spent most of my life, it is painful to suck cirrus through dim sunlight. Looking ahead at the ensembles and weeklies, this appears to be our only shot at a decent, accumulating snowfall before the pattern relaxation i.e. warming, though not outrageously so. All this is not to say that an 0z Euro scenario isn't out of the question, just that I have deeper scares from the southern fails. Lol

Even with the relaxation period, ensembles maintain a trough over or near Japan, which imho suggests the favorable pattern will return in some form or another aftet a few weeks.

Looks like The Climate Changer's back yard.

I take runs verbatim and judge them on that. In light of the fact the Euro and Canadian literally show nothing close to what the Gfs is showing, tells me it's a phantom storm anyway. But verbatim, it's a total screwgy for PA.

18z Gfs is pure evil.

Another "2 steps back" day again on the models. Fwiw, Cfs2 has been advertising a very dry December for months and it looks like it will get that right unfortunately.

The 3" line gets past me by the 13th but doesn't budge much farther after that. We start to moderate after the 15th but never gets too bad and yesterday's weekly run shows a cool down now for the Conus on the last week. Yesterday's weeklies temps here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202411280000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202412090000

Need those winds to be more NW'erly to see any remnants of snow off the Lakes imby. Not today.

Wow. Eps too!

GEPS likes next weekend like the Canadian operational.

Have a great dinner and be sure to show your family the 12z Canadian. They'll love it! Lol

To determine whether they are "noisey", an undefined, subjective term I should add, we need to see forecasts from prior model runs since the Gefs have a new run every 6 hours. The difference between the 11/27 run RMM plots (it appears they calculate the plots off the 12z runs) and 11/28 plots may, in fact, be justified by a change in forecast by the model vs sssuming they are wrong. And considering model accuracy improves as we get closer to the target date, a model runs 24 hours later would likely be different and more accurate. That said, I found Snowman's 'ing my post a better scientific explanation. Sorry. Happy Thanksgiving all.

Lol. Noisy. They seem to be noisey when they don't show what you expect. Both of you have posted them before. Whatever.

Yeah. I've posted this link before, but if you want to see the majority of the different model MJO plots on 1 page for easier comparison, try this one: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html If you ever wondered how well can models predict the MJO, that link should give you the answer. Lol

Can't say I disagree with any of this at this point. But that can all change in 12 or 24 hours of new runs as we know.

MJO forecasting is like trying to predict who Juan Soto will sign with and the contract figures. Models are not capable, but my wag is that a neutral is even harder for them with no sustained established enso signal i.e. Niño or Niña.

That was yesterday's forecast. They slipped in a new one that shows the MJO collapsing.

Looks like another line of rain before it ends, assuming it makes it over the mts.

It's OK. There are plenty of other reasons to hate my guts.

Honestly, other than the 0z Gfs that reverted back to garbage, nothing encouraging on operational or ensemble runs imho. Happy Thanksgiving!

A decent Gfs run within 10 days, even if just barely! Lol

One thing is certain in this world...extended Gfs will be wrong, one way or the other. I'm more interested to see if the Gefs snow mean cr@ps the he'd from it's 12z run.