mitchnick

6z AI cut back even more on qpf. If it's closer to right than wrong, a whole lot of folks in MD will be unhappy. Some in this forum actually have a shot at doing better with round 2 than 1.

It's almost shocking to me to see the 0z Eps snowfall imby. Basically drops 5.2" between 2/15 and 2/23, and neither the Euro nor any other operational has didly. Fun or sad times ahead I guess. Lol

By the way, AI has pushed a lot of precip for tomorrow south. But until other modeling agrees, not worth worrying about.

Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs. This run is sure to reel Heisey in. Lol

I'm sick of seeing decent looks on ensembles that rarely materialize on the operationals. There's nothing on operationals after this week. Even the 0z AI has a light snow on 2/22, but that could be gone on the 6z. I'll let you know in 20 minutes.

This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut.

Just have to hope Gfs is correct with a colder/drier part 1 leads to a colder/snowier part 2. Hugging the Gfs almost gives me a bad taste in my mouth. Lol

Part 2 action ftw in central PA.

2nd wave pushed me over 6" before the turn over to a brief period of rain. That's what the AI has been showing for days imby.

WxBell has 10" for BWI and Pivotal says 8". Lol

Nam ends colder after 1st wave vs 18z.

0z vs 18z

Yeah, a baby step north. Gotta hope we maintain the wedge too for the next batch.

Probably a baby step north. We'll see.

It'll be close. We'll need a last minute bump bad.

I don't think the Nam will be an improvement based on composite radar. Heavy stuff stays across MD.

Nam bumps heights in the early going from 18z. Here's 27hrs

Nice north bump of heights on Nam at 24hrs

1st waive is a lighter run that started at 12z as 6z was probably one of the wettest. Should be snow at the front end but hard to tell because thermals are OK at start of the 6 hour period but are gone at the end. Probably best to stick with other models with better graphics for part 2 imho.

Latest Srefs Now we're talking

Fwiw 18z AI has a 24hr+ snowstorm on 2/21-2/22.

Flush hit as in the 18z AI big coastal all snow storm on 2/21-2/22 lasting 24hr+?

See, that's what part of my post that I erased mentioned. But, don't worry about it.

I see and post model runs so people can see what the models are showing, but that doesn't mean I believe them. This week is looking like the 1st storm of the season barring a last minute bump north, so I pretty much expect the short end. Part 2 on Thursday may have more snow to start, but the AI has been showing that for many runs, and it still turns to rain anyhow. Next weekend I have no faith in at the moment with the Gem as the current sole source of hope. As for the 20th, it's too far away for me to get excited. I'm not saying people can't or shouldn't be optimistic based on some stuff out there, but I'm pretty numb to all the threats right now, that's all.