mitchnick

Snowman may have a thought or 2 why the WB maps are colder. Might want to ask him...and then duck!

Larry, Tip posted this yesterday in the NE forum, which "may" be related to it, idk as I really didn't bother to look into it. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61325-december-2024-best-look-to-an-early-december-pattern-in-many-a-year/?do=findComment&comment=7489944

What I wasn't prepared for when we went out was it was not smooth. It was a bunch of slippery, sharp-edged chunks in varying sizes. I almost fell a couple of times and still remember thinking how lucky I was I didn't because I know I'd have been real sorry if I had. Lol

In January 77', couple of friends and I went to Sandy Point State Park on the west side of the Chesapeake Bay bridge and walked out on the frozen Chesapeake Bay around 200'. Once in a lifetime chance at doing that. Otoh, BWI had around 12" for that winter, so the winter itself sorta sucked in my feeble weenie mind.

Per Joe D’Aleo at WB: “Strat warm favored in west QBO near solar max” https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/?do=findComment&comment=7489229

Good points Larry, but with michsnowfreak being in...Michigan, his excitement is justified imho. I know I'd be right there with him if I was in Michigan.

Surprise, surprise! Only 1 warm week on today's weeklies. January really looking like the Canadian January forecast. Of course, that's as of today. It'll change again tomorrow, hopefully colder!

If you put it into motion, the trough is retrograding west which, if correct and it continues, should build heights along the west coast. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2024120606&fh=loop&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

No guarantee that the consequences of the SSW will benefit the Conus. If the cold goes somewhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, it could mean we get the warm end of the stick. We just need the right pattern without risking an already difficult task. That's the way I see it. Of course, if we're snowless and warm come mid-Feb, then it's Hail Mary time and I'm all in. Lol

We're better off with a weakened PV like the Euro is showing vs SSW. And the Euro doesn't even have to be right for that matter. Just keep the PV from looking like the great Saturn storm and we'll have a chance imho.

Doesn't strike me as a very wet pattern on the EC, which just adds to difficulty for getting a decent snow event(s).

TT MONTHLY CFS maps are based on last 12 forecasts of 1 member TT WEEKLY CFS maps are based on last 12 forecasts of 4 members. CFS site uses 40 members 4 runs a day for prior 10 days. So you will get different results, but WB is always inexplicably colder.

Cansips February forecast looks similar to the last Euro weekly forecast on that tweet fwiw.

Thanks Larry. Do you have the NA 500mb map handy for January? This temp forecast with the colder SW and SC Canada into the Dakotas and GL seems to have support from the various CFS sources and Cansips fwiw. Thanks again.

Line that came thru here was snow, but really dried up despite radar returns.

My wife makes THE best chocolate chip cookies and last year I said "why not dip 1/2 in melted chocolate. " Oh boy are they delicious. I mention it only because I'm making a pig out of myself with them now waiting for snow (I hope.) Just sayin'

Line of heavy precip in my doorstep. Rain or snow? Stay tuned...OK then, turn off the TV, I don't care.

On an unrelated note, new Wawa in Dover opens tomorrow. Hanover supposed to be before the end of the year. Yippee! Can't wait to be the first to try the bathrooms. It's an oldster thing, ya' know.

It does get harder as you get older, but I can still get used to it. My bigger issue is every time I hear the furnace goes on I cringe. Lol

Every time people mention MU I think of the pastor of my church. He started out a Met major at MU in the mid-2010's but ended up a political science major because of the math. By the time he graduated, he got the calling and ended up in the Seminary.

Things that are now...and the wacky Cfs2 sporadically, and often inexplicably, shows in the future. Often by itself. Lol

Cold

I know exactly what it's all about, hence why you cherry picked.

What I was questioning goes back to my original post about grabbing a forecast frame and comparing it to another later forecast like Bluewave did while disregarding an opposite result on the same run for a different period. Go back to my original post. I acknowledged the computers are flawed. My use of the word "bias" was in response to Bluewave's cherry pick...yes, cherry pick.

I'm sorry, I don't believe this model bias talk. If there was a proven bias, we would be hearing about it from all the Mets as the reason for their blown forecasts. Anyway, the models are run so many times a day, what runs are you going to use and how often do you check? And is this bias on all the models all the time or some of the models some of the time? It's a moving object that never stops. There's no doubt the models are flawed, but using 1 particular time on run vs another 1 particular time on a run to prove a point is cherry picking where I come from. Especially if you can take a different time on the same run and show the model has gotten colder. Frankly, I'm still trying to figure out the point of the exercise. I have my thoughts, of course.