mitchnick

Vacation in Bedford County?

40/70 approved

There's always the 12z Icon.

And to think I was just about to post how much the Icon had improved imby. Never mind. Lol

Do you have a view of the hilltops?

Long range Eps says no more competing MJO forces.

Wouldn't shock me if the models drastically beef up or cut back on snow projections on the southern and eastern areas with the 12z runs as the temp difference between a coating/.5" and 2-3" is very slight. It's hard to think they had that nailed down before this morning.

Sorry, but not interested in snow if it means getting hrdps.

I have to chuckle when these people who make these proclamations with such certainty regarding MJO projections and the effects. How'd this guy, Peyton, do in the fall with his MJO and Conus temp forecasts? As stated earlier, we've been in the process of going thru 4 and 5 and have had the coldest start in the east in December since 2010, and Peyton is certain with future MJO progression and the results. Just more proof you can find anybody to say anything on the internet. Personally, I think the cooling of the warm pool (which continues) has something to do with the cool temps in the east despite phases 4-6, but you won't get any research on that since so many have predicted the world's demise because of it. Time will tell. As for the PDO, apparently an historically negative state does not preclude a +PNA. But the worm has turned on the -PDO imho.

That's crazy. I remember that winter well back in my old back yard a little south of BWI, and we had nothing from that.

Maybe, but weeklies have been consistent for a while with at or BN starting the week of 1/6, so I'll take the weenie route. Lol

Today’s weeklies have come in colder. Even has a large area of BN temps in the east the week of 1/6-1/13.

Huh...average a fading Niño with a weak Niña, and what do you get? La Nada...what else! Lol 20NOV2024 22.7 0.8 25.2 0.1 26.7-0.1 28.8 0.1 27NOV2024 22.5 0.3 24.9-0.2 26.4-0.3 28.5-0.1 04DEC2024 22.5 0.1 24.8-0.4 26.3-0.3 28.3-0.2

Don't look at the 3k.

There's no doubt, my southern location is a problem. But getting back to my original post, I just don't think the 10:1 accumulation maps are going to be as accurate as the Kuchera. That's really all I'm saying.

There was a big difference in a number of years from the 90's to before I moved up here. And I did do substantially better than BWI in 20/21 and better last year. But not so in the other 3 years.

My forecast has rain and snow starting at 1PM. I'm sure I'll have snow TV, but it's the accumulations I doubt.

True. But it's a retreating arctic High with SE winds and there's not the kind of model consensus you'd expect for a decent accumulation event. Don't get me wrong. Higher elevations will likely do as advertised, but imho anything to the south and east of the mts under 2" on the 10:1 maps will likely be 1/2" or less.

You'll have a much better shot at accumulations with your elevation. I'll need to drive 6 minutes up to the peak of Pigeon Hills. Either way, everyone melts and/or gets washed away. Honestly, this move up here hoping for more snow has been disappointing to say the least. Snow nirvana it ain't! Lol

I love ya' Bliz, but those 10:1 accumulation maps will never verify with these marginal events. Kuchera are far from perfect, but will end up being much more accurate with their reduced totals.

We have a lot of clouds here, so that will limit us with a decent low if they persist.

Idk. So different.

18z Euro and Eps are on a different planet from the Gfs on the 21st.

Painful...very, very painful.

Gfs is very January 1996'ish with a Blizzard followed by a pattern change warmup. OK by me.