mitchnick
-
Posts
26,299 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by mitchnick
-
Here's a link to daily updates Euro weeklies if you don't have it. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]%2C"Type"%3A[]}
-
Euro Weeklies. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202412190000&filter=no¶meter=zonal wind 850 hPa
-
Gotta believe this is at least in part the reason for the Niño look on the weeklies. Compared to yesterday's run, more westerlies and less trades.
-
Do they ever. Youzah!
-
They can't help but be, but the general idea still supports cold enough for snow IF correct, of course.
-
End of ensembles and extended products all suggest we'll be cold enough for snow with the correctly placed pattern.
-
The best part is, there are decent arguments on both sides. So we just sit back and hope for the best. I think the La Nada conditions for so long with only recent Niña conditions has been a real screwball to long range modeling in part due to the lag in atmospheric response to the Niña. The La Nada has let a background Niño hold on, now it's the Niña fighting against it.
-
6z Gfs is looking for Ray.
-
3k Nam on board now for ENE
-
6z Nam Kuchera. 10:1 is crazy.
-
Icon is another disappointment.
-
3k Nam not buying what 12k is selling.
-
It's snowing in yby? Wtf? That's not fair.
-
Hey Voyager...WmsptWx just called you a wimp!
-
I forgot to say, I'll certainly be dead by 2045. Lol
-
I avoid 94 as much as possible. Plenty of side roads parallel it negating the need to go on it. Heck, I even get to the Starlight going thru the Mall parking lot in back. Since I met my wife, she has always marveled at my ability to avoid traffic jams (hate them.) With a map in the car, it's even easier.
-
Oh, great. More accidents there than intersections around here imho.
-
Frosty all over here. Some day I'll say snowy all over here.
-
You forgot "people who drive like me." Thanks.
-
1. No I don't. 2. Past performance is no guarantee. 3. Eps just had a major upgrade, so assuming it will have same biases/errors is probably not something one would want to expect. 4. Eps still has better performance numbers, though I admit I'm not in love with that method. 5. It shows exactly what I want to happen just as the Gefs shows exactly what you want to happen! Lol
-
You are a better man than I.
-
THV got down to 25. Upper 20's and low 30's around me. Bit cooler than low 30's forecast.
-
Snowman, that Geps map is not 500mb anomalies. It's run-to-run changes. This is the 336 hr Geps 500mb anomalies off 0z. As for the Maritime Niña standing wave, the 7-DAY EPS 200mb from 0z says it will be taking a seat by the end of the run. In fact, the hourly map says it's gone at 216 hrs.
-
Icon moved north a bit, but still pretty nice considering. Question is whether it continues to move north toward the 12z Euro bullseye of NYC in future runs?
