mitchnick

Perfect example why I hate the Euro. 18z run, almost real time to the start of the event, gives me 1" Kuchera and between 1.5-2" using 10:1. What do I get? A thick coating. What a pos that model can be.

Lawyers kids have got to eat too you know.

Had a thick coating on everything except paved areas but most has melted or been washed away. Beautiful to watch but disappointed it turned out how I feared yesterday. Just hope those Eps weeklies are close to being correct as advertised temps for most, if not all, of January will be at or below normal. Not that I have a very convincing grasp on normal.

That's between 15N and 15S, so of course it will be different from the entire world view shown on the TT map I posted. But if the TT maps are no good, misleading, or shouldn't be posted, why do you post them? Bottom line, they show what they show even if you apparently don't like or agree with them. I'm just a humble messenger.

Yeah, but what if the neighbors see it.

Slp is actually a touch further south and west of 12z and that run dropped 8-9".

Fwiw, surface looked darn healthy. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024121518&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Though a touch further east, Icon is deeper at 120hrs on the 18z run vs 12z at 126 hrs

I'm still close to the front end (I'm gunna' regret saying that), so I may yet get the 1-1.5" the Euro predicted imby.

Grass and mulch caved, albeit barely!

Snow after briefly a mix to start.

You got screwed my friend.

I correctly posted a map at 360 hours that showed forcing over the W Hem. Period! Lol But even considering the map you posted, the trend is for forcing to weaken over the Maritime and end up over the W Hem. This can be seen by using the slide function to put the forecast in motion starting on day 9 (the first day of the period your map showed) and going to the end of the forecast, my 360 hr map. By the way, when did this site employ "model police" anyway? Lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2024121500&fh=216

Nope. He was obviously referring to monthly forecasts made before the month. You're talking about medium range forecasts that you claim are wrong. 2 different things completely.

I used the 360 hr forecast and not 6 day you used. You could at least use the same forecast period. Lol

He was talking temps, not snow. Why change the subject to snow or model forecasts? Unless you can show a model that showed colder than what has occurred, flawed modeling has literally nothing to do with it.

So what's your forecast, without hedging?

Vacation in Bedford County?

40/70 approved

There's always the 12z Icon.

And to think I was just about to post how much the Icon had improved imby. Never mind. Lol

Do you have a view of the hilltops?

Long range Eps says no more competing MJO forces.

Wouldn't shock me if the models drastically beef up or cut back on snow projections on the southern and eastern areas with the 12z runs as the temp difference between a coating/.5" and 2-3" is very slight. It's hard to think they had that nailed down before this morning.

Sorry, but not interested in snow if it means getting hrdps.