mitchnick

Qpf looks sorta like AI's last couple runs to be honest.

Just try to follow JI's lead and you'll be fine.

AO proged to go down to -5 now. I think the last time it went down that low was 2/10? Even if that's incorrect, an AO that low almost always favors ME/SE for storms. But this one, though starting south, is also proged to head north instead of out to sea thankfully.

Eps 24hr snowfall for the period

I think I can find a way to live with this.

As pessimistic as I "may" (lol) sound sometimes, it's really disgust 95% of the time. But my $0.02 opinions are what I legit believe, right or wrong. That said, my gripe has been the lack of support on the operationals from what does appear to be a legit decent pattern advertised on the ensembles assuming they are correct. This storm finally gives some credence to the ensemble pattern imho. In addition, I posted in the MA long range forum this morning that the AI had 3 threats for next week. So maybe we'll start to see the operational runs lighting up with blue over us...we all hope.

Of course, it looks better south of us. Lol

And like that, Euro has a storm on 2/20.

You said the good ensembles started on 2/3 so adding 15 or 16 days takes us to the 18th/19th, which is Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Runs after 2/3 would certainly extend the period.

Not debating, just stating why I'm doubting the numbers on some maps and that it plays into the bust potential. Bust potential is based on expectations.

By Thursday at 7pm, Euro has this on the ground. Boy, that was fast.

That then takes us to early/mid next week. Not looking good to expect anything near double digits that were being shown on those runs.

Pivotal snowfall maps are much more conservative than WxBell again. This is another reason why I believe the bust potential here and to our south is high. Expectations are just too high based on those WxBell maps that never work out imby.

Maybe we'll get a quick correction with threats as the week continues because the latest Gefs and Eps now get the wave into phase 8 by the Thursday or Friday this week!

They all are. That's why I posted in the MA forum and here I believe that ensemble support without the operationals advertising chances gives me no confidence of anything. As for this week, there is an usually high number of models that are not great even in MD. There is imho a much higher bust potential for totals between surface temps and qpf. Recall I mentioned this morning that the AI cut qpf for us and down into MD/DC areas.

Iow, this one ain't ours unless the Nams are correct.

Rgem is really bad for PA.

That's who I'm thinking. Lol

Who? I don't do OT but I can guess.

If you recall, Gfs and other modeling was calling for a PV split this week, then backed off. It's still a good hit, but is now showing a follow-up hit at the end of the run that almost does split it cleanly. Scroll thru this link to see what I'm talking about https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2025021006&fh=6

Nam goes with hours of rn imby after the changeover, so hopefully that's overdone in typical Nam fashion.

Feel better soon. My covid a month ago went fairly fast but I'm a firm believer in vitamin D and zinc. Need at least 5000iu of D.

Round 2 adds to it in many areas.

It's odd how the past week or so the ensembles have been dropping more snow than the operationals. I can't recall seeing that for such an extended period. It's usually the operationals dumping large amounts and the ensembles being paultry. I'm one confused weenie!