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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Can't say I disagree with any of this at this point. But that can all change in 12 or 24 hours of new runs as we know.
  2. mitchnick
    MJO forecasting is like trying to predict who Juan Soto will sign with and the contract figures. Models are not capable, but my wag is that a neutral is even harder for them with no sustained established enso signal i.e. Niño or Niña.
  3. mitchnick
    That was yesterday's forecast. They slipped in a new one that shows the MJO collapsing.
  4. mitchnick
    Looks like another line of rain before it ends, assuming it makes it over the mts.
  5. mitchnick
    It's OK. There are plenty of other reasons to hate my guts.
  6. mitchnick
    Honestly, other than the 0z Gfs that reverted back to garbage, nothing encouraging on operational or ensemble runs imho. Happy Thanksgiving!
  7. mitchnick
    A decent Gfs run within 10 days, even if just barely! Lol
  8. mitchnick
    One thing is certain in this world...extended Gfs will be wrong, one way or the other. I'm more interested to see if the Gefs snow mean cr@ps the he'd from it's 12z run.
  9. mitchnick
    Congrats. Enjoy!
  10. mitchnick
    Former lawyer. I officially filed the last papers in my last open estate on Monday. Finally! Should have happened a year ago but client just dragged his feet. Oh well, I'm done.
  11. mitchnick
    Anybody have any opinions on this guy? I don't follow anybody on X. It was posted in the MA forum. https://x.com/shark_wx/status/1861847216656195755?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1861847216656195755|twgr^852392dce2a573042c1988905ef4040d137e79bf|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fshark_wx%2Fstatus%2F1861847216656195755%3Ft%3DVToEIAHSESOX90fk7tm_Fg26s%3D19
  12. mitchnick
    Patience...at my age? Naĥĥhhhhhh
  13. mitchnick
    Actually, ensemble snowfall means on all 3 jumped imby from being an inch+ for the last 4+ 360hr runs to between 2.5"-3+". Doesn't guarantee snow, of course, but odds have certainly increased, which is all you can hope for with ensemble means. Everything of consequence is day 7+, so that part still stinks.
  14. mitchnick
    Cold/dry patterns, as hard as they have been to come by lately, are a lot easier than snowy patterns. Cold without snow is more frustrating to me than just a lousy/warm pattern. But, others may disagree.
  15. mitchnick
    So we just don't know. Lol To be fair, it's hard to feel comfortable with any MJO forecasts past 7 days, and even that's a sttetch.
  16. mitchnick
    https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ It's basically resulting 500mb plots from MJO in a particular phase based on Enso conditions. Certainly, nothing's a lock since other factors can and do influence the pattern. But it at least gives you an idea.
  17. mitchnick
    Are you saying those plots are flat out wrong or just offering criticism? Model trends are always important and all forecasts are subject to change. And yeah, lots can go wrong with any forecast, but are you saying it will or just musing?
  18. mitchnick
    Here are phase 6 neutral and Niña. I attatch Niña because although we're are currently neutral, will the current trade wind burst get us to minimal Niña conditions? We'll see.
  19. mitchnick
    Do you mean neutral Enso, because it is. Something else?
  20. mitchnick
    But with a neutral Enso, Phase 5 looks like this.
  21. mitchnick
    We want a little bit of ridging in the Atlantic or we'll never get anything to come up the coast. Like everything, it's too much of a SE ridge that's the killer. Looks to fade at the end of the run so hopefully it's not too much.
  22. mitchnick
    Like flies on a rib roast.
  23. mitchnick
    Fwiw, aseveral days ago the Cfs2 started looking like a Niño February with at or below temps and AN precip.
  24. mitchnick
    Nam just came in colder for Thursday and says snow not far from MDT. But alas, it's the Nam.
  25. mitchnick
    Talk about disappointing model runs. Ughh...nothing of substance to look forward to and the ensembles are just as bad as the operationals.
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