mitchnick

Blizzard of 93 sleeping at the 12z Euro wheel. Tisk, tisk.

If it's cold...a lot. If it's warm...we toss. Those are my only 2 rules for seasonal forecasts. Lol Honestly, it's a little hard to take a sudden, radical change by any mr/lr model, let alone the Cfs2. Jmho

It's been forecasting this trade burst (below) for a while. In fact, I posted this prog and the Gfs prog a few days ago in this thread. It's either off its rocker or finally decided to pay attention to It's own forecast. Lol

All the ensembles remain on the cold side in the east, with Gefs and Eps being the coldest of the 3 at the end their runs.

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/el-nino-la-nina-watch-and-pdo/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/

Plenty of lurkers who may not know better.

Lol. The map you posted was an operational GFS at 288 the end of November, not the start of December. 12z operational already different.

Pretty much agree wrt modeling. It can go to hell fast. But at this time of year it's a matter of being optimistic or pessimistic. To my surprise, I'm not seeing grounds for pessimism...yet. So I'll enjoy it like a good weenie. Lol

I was going to post on this. Looks like they are going toward a compromise of the 2 camps imho. It's fluid at this point, so, like I said, we need a few days. I would note that the Gefs extended has a faster wave than the last few days getting into Phase 7 by the 16th of December.

Did either of you bother to look at ensembles for December 1st, the "start of December? " Apparently not. But it explains why qg is 5 posted. Where exactly is the record warmth?

Ensembles showing the trough over Japan are showing a trough over the east like the 0z and 6z Gefs, 0z Geps, and 0z Eps. I am referring to the end of their runs.

I'm not seeing a wall-to-wall December furnace at this point as I thought a few weeks ago. I think there will be at least 1 week, maybe 2 in the NE, with a shot(s) of wintry weather. But January will be the do or die month for most in the east, at least that's the way it looks now (subject to change, of course.)

Maybe, who knows. All I know is that it correlates well with a trough in the east and will likely help waters to cool which, imho, will rise the PDO, and any rise will help.

Yesterday's weeklies have increased the number of weeks to 5 out of 6 with a trough over or near Japan, though an argument could be made that it's all 6 imho. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411150000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411250000

In case you're interested, here's a link to all the MJO forecasts on 1 page that make them a whole lot easier to compare. They are the same forecasts as the CPC site. Note that like the CPC site, however, starting dates of the forecasts are not always the same. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

That's because you don't speak French.

We should actually have a pretty good idea which camp is on the right track in a few days. When you compare the Euro/JMA to the GFS/CFS, the Gfs/CFS have the wave exiting the COD within a few days while the other 2 keep it buried in the COD.

0z run of the Cfs2 weeklies shows a cooler 2-3 weeks than previous runs, but then starts to warm toward the end of the month of December. The Cfs2 is definitely on board with a strong pass thru the warm phases and has been for days, so I assume it represents your thinking. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2024111500&fh=504 But the monthly forecast shows a normal to BN temps in the MA & NE for January. My guess is it holds a fairly strong wave into the cooler phases to support the cooler January.

I wouldn't get worried at this point. First of all, there are multiple variations from the Euro suite as well as the Gfs suite. They, along with other modeling, are at the link below. You can see the various different forecasts from the same suite not to mention that forecast Chuck posted was at the end of the run with low skill. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

It wasn'tout yet when I posted. +1-2 to -1-2 across the country at the end of the run. Edit: Added surface and 850 anomaly maps. Looks like a front moving down from the midwest at the end of the run too.

End of the Gefs and Geps take us to the morning of 11/30 with no real furnace in sight, US or in Canada, but Geps is surprisingly colder.

I haven't read JB in years, so I was unaware of his JMA laments. Notwithstanding, I routinely see the other suites follow it. I agree with you on the CFS and BoM fwiw...they suk. But as you and I both mentioned, it would be nice if the JMA ensembles went out further.

Gee thanks. And to think I figured you'd respond with something disingenuous.

Idk. I always look at the JMA MJO forecast as I find it's usually closer in the end to being correct than either the Gfs or Euro suites. Fwiw, JMA looks very similar to Euro vs Gfs. PRoblem with the JMA is the plots only have the ensemble JMA out 10 days vs the longer range ensembles of the Euro and Gfs suites. So there's no much of a clue for December attm. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

If we're ever going to get an official Niña, Gfs and Cfs2 say the cool down starts now. We'll see.