mitchnick

Little early in the season for a run like this on the 12z Gfs. Lol

Yeah, but you get the chick!

Is that for Millersville area or S. PA?

Only if it keeps getting warmer!

I think WeatherBell offers daily runs, but that may be on the Control run. Not sure as I haven't had a WB account in years.

In case anyone cares, I think I've found the reason for the differences between the Cfs2 site and the Cfs2 shown on TT. Cfs2 site is an average of runs for the last 9 days and TT is an average of the last 12 runs, or 3 days. Since today's TT Cfs2 maps are much warmer than what's reflected on the Cfs2 site as of today, I would expect the Cfs2 site to show some noticeable warming over the next week unless TT maps reverse their recent warming. I guess we'll see if I'm right. Cfs2 site if you don'thave it handy: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html TT Cfs2: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2024102706&fh=1

When a team can look so good one week and so bad the next, it's got to be 80-90% coaching imho.

I know. I was being a desperate weenie.

In retrospect or when looking ahead? Lol

We were forecasted to stay in the 50's overnight thanks to the flow in front of a cold front. It's 54 now but the front is through with nw winds. Temps should be slow to rise.

Cfs2 has been cooling the last week, but I assume it's too cool. If the trend continues, an updated forecast....err, guess may be needed. Lol

Roof frost all over and a low of 32 at York Airport.

Yeah, barely touched my oil tank level so far and received only a $90 electric bill yesterday.

Fwiw, Cfs2 and and bias corrected Bomm get it thru 3.

Went over this before, but it's worth repeating. The Cfs2, as all other seasonal modeling, has December as a dumpster fire, which all have acknowledged. The question is what about January and February, as the Dec-Feb average is and has been skewed by December's warmth. This can be seen on the monthly temps link below. I am going verbatim just as your post, and clearly January and February are not as bad is December, and never have been for that matter for the last month. Whether the Cfs2 and other modeling is accurate is whole different discussion. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

We just need to find something we all agree on to unify us......

Don't really disagree. I just favor official sites except, like I said, when I'm waiting for the cold for a reason.

I was looking at a 90 with 2 of the closest stations 82 and another at 84. I think it comes down to micro climates and equipment. Jmho

That's why I never bother to look at Wunderground station temps unless I'm waiting for cold air to arrive waiting for a changeover from rain to snow. You just don't know where the station is situated and how accurate that particular station is. There shouldn't be that much of a difference over such short distances without micro climates and/or faulty wx instruments. I see the inexplicable variations within a mile of my house at locations with only a few feet asl' apart.

With all those 82's close by, I think some of those higher numbers may have the sun shining on the wx stations.

I believe it was @brooklynwx99 that posted WB is the Control run of the Cfs2. I believe what you posted is the Control run because it has the "(C)" after the words "CFS Monthly" top, left. I could be wrong, of course. Lol

Never?

Cfs2 is always a moving target. It was actually a touch warmer than Don's map a few days ago when it had the +1C just north of mby instead of just south. Once updated November forecasts come in over the next couple of weeks, it'll be time to shift to the weekly guidance where there's "a little" more accuracy.

I posted weeks ago I thought the best chances for the Mid Atlantic for anything decent was between 1/15-2/25. Still believe that's the case, but should have added nuisance potential thru the winter (1" or less.) I doubt a big year, but 20/21 sucked down there while I had over 30". I don't believe I'll ever see that this year short of a fluke event.

Not a long list, but at least indicative of a winter favoring neutral. Again, that supports the idea of an up and down winter being favored. I do believe you can scratch 89/90 off the list as November is not looking anonymously cold like 11/89 (assuming that you are using the month of December to identify the winter.) Unfortunately, very few winters on that list I'd be interested in reliving! Lol