mitchnick

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/epnp_index.tim

To be fair, cold advertised on the models, like that coming this week, looks pretty concrete. But there's no doubt models overdo cold and snow at mr and lr, but we'll just have to see if it's delayed or denied. I have said ever since the alleged Euro suite upgrade in 2017 that it was, in fact, a degrade. It's never been the same and is undoubtedly snow crazy in the 3-7+ day range and not a ton better in short ranges.

That's not to say Eps doesn't still bring in the cold.

1 thing I didn't consider yesterday is the delay of the MJO effects. As I think about it, that may explain what we're seeing there should it hold. But models are famous for screwing up timing, so we shall see.

Actually, I admit to stealing it from 40/70, or something very similar, when he's bustin' chops. Look at it this way, if things turn out your way with the forecast, I'll never hear the end of it and I know it. Lol

Generally agree. But you refer to it as a mismatch. I don't look at it like that. Something is keeping the ridge out west and the trough in the east. I think it's more that the MJO isn't driving the bus. That's where what I've been harping on, namely, the trough over/near Japan and the resulting trough in the eastern Conus, comes in. I think as long as that remains in the means, the ridge out west is stuck, providing the MJO wave doesn't strengthen more than currently progged or stall (which is not currently progged either.) Otoh, we either lose the trough over Japan or the MJO waves misbehaves as mentioned above, and Qu-mon and Snowman starting dancing naked, hand in hand, down the middle of I95 in 65-70 degree sunshine. Once the MJO phase gets into a more favorable phase, say late Dec-early January, then it's game on notwithstanding what happens in December, assuming there's even a game in the east this winter. Lol That's my wag.

All 3 ensembles at 12z just got even colder for the first 3 or 4 days of December. One thing to consider is the Gefs has really sped up the wave and it's no where near as strong as the Cfs with the wave. In fact, none of the models are. My thinking is maybe the speed of the relatively weak wave depicted on the Gefs won't allow for the warming of an otherwise slower, stronger wave, which is why all ensembles have remained on the colder side come December. Idk, just wondering. We'll see.

Geps ain't bad looking either. Has the highest ensemble snowfall of all 3 ensembls. It was the warmest of them only 2 runs ago too.

Blizzard of 93 sleeping at the 12z Euro wheel. Tisk, tisk.

If it's cold...a lot. If it's warm...we toss. Those are my only 2 rules for seasonal forecasts. Lol Honestly, it's a little hard to take a sudden, radical change by any mr/lr model, let alone the Cfs2. Jmho

It's been forecasting this trade burst (below) for a while. In fact, I posted this prog and the Gfs prog a few days ago in this thread. It's either off its rocker or finally decided to pay attention to It's own forecast. Lol

All the ensembles remain on the cold side in the east, with Gefs and Eps being the coldest of the 3 at the end their runs.

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/el-nino-la-nina-watch-and-pdo/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/

Plenty of lurkers who may not know better.

Lol. The map you posted was an operational GFS at 288 the end of November, not the start of December. 12z operational already different.

Pretty much agree wrt modeling. It can go to hell fast. But at this time of year it's a matter of being optimistic or pessimistic. To my surprise, I'm not seeing grounds for pessimism...yet. So I'll enjoy it like a good weenie. Lol

I was going to post on this. Looks like they are going toward a compromise of the 2 camps imho. It's fluid at this point, so, like I said, we need a few days. I would note that the Gefs extended has a faster wave than the last few days getting into Phase 7 by the 16th of December.

Did either of you bother to look at ensembles for December 1st, the "start of December? " Apparently not. But it explains why qg is 5 posted. Where exactly is the record warmth?

Ensembles showing the trough over Japan are showing a trough over the east like the 0z and 6z Gefs, 0z Geps, and 0z Eps. I am referring to the end of their runs.

I'm not seeing a wall-to-wall December furnace at this point as I thought a few weeks ago. I think there will be at least 1 week, maybe 2 in the NE, with a shot(s) of wintry weather. But January will be the do or die month for most in the east, at least that's the way it looks now (subject to change, of course.)

Maybe, who knows. All I know is that it correlates well with a trough in the east and will likely help waters to cool which, imho, will rise the PDO, and any rise will help.

Yesterday's weeklies have increased the number of weeks to 5 out of 6 with a trough over or near Japan, though an argument could be made that it's all 6 imho. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202411150000&projection=opencharts_eastern_asia&valid_time=202411250000

In case you're interested, here's a link to all the MJO forecasts on 1 page that make them a whole lot easier to compare. They are the same forecasts as the CPC site. Note that like the CPC site, however, starting dates of the forecasts are not always the same. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

That's because you don't speak French.

We should actually have a pretty good idea which camp is on the right track in a few days. When you compare the Euro/JMA to the GFS/CFS, the Gfs/CFS have the wave exiting the COD within a few days while the other 2 keep it buried in the COD.